May 04, 2024 6:41 AM CDT

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros 5/4/2024

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The Houston Astros are 7-10 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Seattle Mariners who are 6-7 on the road this season. The Astros have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Astros starter Framber Valdez is forecasted to have a better game than Mariners starter Logan Gilbert. Framber Valdez has a 67% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Logan Gilbert has a 54% chance of a QS. If Framber Valdez has a quality start the Astros has a 73% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.6 and he has a 26% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Astros win 67%. In Logan Gilbert quality starts the Mariners win 56%. He has a 37% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 56% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Houston Astros is Jose Altuve who averaged 2.09 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 33% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Astros have a 73% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Seattle Mariners is Julio Rodriguez who averaged 1.69 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 25% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mariners have a 53% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Seattle Mariners

Seattle MarinersRECORDHouston AstrosRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road6-7, 46% -221Record at Home7-10, 41% -484Seattle Mariners
VS Houston Astros0-1, 0% -100VS Seattle Mariners1-0, 100% 86Houston Astros
vs Team Under .5005-5, 50% -118vs Team .500 or Better8-19, 30% -1296Seattle Mariners
Record As Road Underdog1-6, 14% -502Record As Home Favorite7-8, 47% -284Houston Astros
When Logan Gilbert Starts4-2, 67% 117When Framber Valdez Starts2-2, 50% -86Seattle Mariners

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Houston Astros

Seattle MarinersRECORDHouston AstrosRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road6-7, 46% -221Record at Home5-5, 50% -117Houston Astros
VS Houston Astros0-1, 0% -100VS Seattle Mariners1-0, 100% 86Houston Astros
vs Team Under .50010-6, 62% 167vs Team .500 or Better4-12, 25% -912Seattle Mariners
Record As Road Underdog1-6, 14% -502Record As Home Favorite5-3, 62% 83Houston Astros
When Logan Gilbert Starts3-2, 60% 54When Framber Valdez Starts2-0, 100% 114Houston Astros

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Seattle MarinersRECORDHouston AstrosRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD3-8, 27% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME7-9, 44% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-8, 27% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-4, 56% OverUNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON42-35, 55% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON49-37, 57% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Logan Gilbert STARTS1-5, 17% OverOVER-UNDER IN Framber Valdez STARTS2-2, 50% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - Seattle Mariners Road Games: 9-4, 69% +343 Houston Astros Home Games: 7-10, 41% -394 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Seattle Mariners Road Games: 9-4, 69% +343 Houston Astros Home Games: 6-4, 60% +91

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - Seattle Mariners Road Games: 10-3, 77% +511 Houston Astros Home Games: 9-8, 53% -111 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - Seattle Mariners Road Games: 10-3, 77% +511 Houston Astros Home Games: 7-3, 70% +256

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - Seattle Mariners Road Games: 9-2, 82% + 680 Houston Astros Home Games: 7-9, 44% -290 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - Seattle Mariners Road Games: 9-2, 82% + 680 Houston Astros Home Games: 2-7, 22% -570

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