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2019 NBA Playoffs Preview: Warriors Over Buck in NBA Finals

The NBA Playoffs tip-off Saturday, and AccuScore played out every series 10,000 times to simulate out the entire NBA postseason with a few surprises along the way, but the Golden State Warriors top the Milwaukee Buck in the NBA Finals for Kevin Durant's third straight title and the Warriors' fourth championship over a five-year span. Here's a look at the entire playoffs as AccuScore sees it.

NBA Playoffs 2019 bracket and predictions

Before we get to the NBA Finals, let's start with the opening round.

AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and totals for every game of the 2019 NBA Playoffs. With trends, analysis and player projections, get the best winning analysis for the entire 2019 NBA Playoffs: NBA Expert Picks - Every Game

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Western Conference

The Warriors sweeping the Clippers is obviously on the table, since the Warriors beat the Clippers in 92% of AccuSore's simulations, the most lopsided of any series in the 2019 Western Conference playoffs. Golden State has an 18.5% chance of clean sweeping the Clippers, which may seem low until you consider that that's more than double the Clippers' chances of winning the series. The Warriors' highest probability for a closeout game, however, is Game 5 with 38.6% of simulations saying the Warriors pull off the gentleman's sweep.

The Nuggets and Spurs series is an interesting one, since San Antonio is long on postseason experience, while Denver is here for the first time in forever. The Spurs may not pull off the upset, but they are projected to test Denver, with the Nuggets' most likely closeout game projected as Game 7 at with 21.7%. In all, the Nuggets hold a 61% to 39% edge on the Spurs, according to the computer.

The Portland and Oklahoma City series is probably the closes matchup of the first round, with OKC possessing arguably the two best players in the series. Home court in the playoffs, though, is no joke, and these two teams especially understand the importance of playing at home. The Blazers are projected to win 57% of the time, with the most likely outcome a Game 7 win for Portland on the Blazers' home court.

Utah, sadly, doesn't figure to have much of a chance against Houston. James Harden, Chris Paul and company are simply too strong for Utah. The Rockets won 74% of simulations, with the Rockets winning in 5 games 24.1% of the time.

AccuScore has full analysis and expert picks against the spread, on totals and with side value moneyline analysis: NBA Expert Picks - Every Game

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Eastern Conference

The only series more lopsided than the Warriors against the Clippers is the Bucks and the Pistons. The Buck won 93% of simulations. Pray for Detroit.

Toronto torched Orlando at a 90% to 10% clip, so the top of the East is expected to cruise into the second round, where the playoffs really get going.

Philly and Brooklyn, surprisingly, is a mismatch according to the computer. Brooklyn has a great story, but the computer gives the Nets only a 16% chance of pulling off the upset. As long as the Sixers are healthy, they're expected to cruise against the Nets. The Nets ended the series in 5 games in 29.5% of simulations, which is the most likely end to what has been a fantastic season for Brooklyn.

Boston may not be where most people figured the Celtics would be at this stage, but the Indiana Pacers don't project to be the team to end the Celtic's season. Boston won 72% of the series in simulations, with the series ending in 5 games (24.3%) and 7 games (22.3%) the most likely conclusions.

AccuScore will update projections and have more analysis as each round progresses

NBA Picks

NBA
  • Money Line
  • Side Value
19.6%
19.6%
80.2%
80.2%

Over

206.0
58.6%

Point Spread

ORL +12.5
61.4%


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NBA
NBA - Top Free Betting Trends
TREND RECORD UNITS
SIDE VALUE (Season) 531-635, 45.5% 10253
WEST CONF GAME SV (Season) 183-179, 50.6% 5981
EAST CONF GAME SV (Season) 155-210, 42.5% 3648
PAC DIV GAME SV (Season) 22-18, 55% 2345
SV Home Line is +200 or More (Season) 57-87, 39.6% 2244
NBA: 3 STAR SV Past 30 Days 37-24, 60.7% 1975
SV Home Line is +101 to +199 (Season) 112-116, 49.1% 1427
SV Home Line is -899 to -400 (Season) 51-94, 35.2% 1331
ATL DIV GAME SV (Season) 16-24, 40% 600
NW DIV GAME SV (Season) 21-17, 55.3% 429
SV Home Line is -199 to -101 (Past 7 Days) 4-0, 100% 424
NBA: 2 STAR SV Past 7 Days 4-2, 66.7% 178
TREND RECORD UNITS
Total Betting Line 200.5 to 205 (Season) 17-10, 63% 600
PAC DIV GAME TOTALS (Season) 23-17, 57.5% 430
ATL DIV GAME TOTALS (Season) 22-17, 56.4% 330
CEN DIV GAME TOTALS (Past 7 Days) 3-0, 100% 300
Total Betting Line 210.5 or More (Past 7 Days) 7-4, 63.6% 260
TOTALS (Past 7 Days) 9-6, 60% 240
NBA: 3 STAR O/U Past 7 Days 4-2, 66.7% 180
TREND RECORD UNITS
SV Home Line is -399 to -200 (Season) 194-61, 76.1% 1280
WEST CONF GAME ML (Season) 241-121, 66.6% 921
NBA: 2 STAR ML Past 30 Days 49-14, 77.8% 755
MONEY LINE (Past 7 Days) 13-2, 86.7% 420
NW DIV GAME ML (Season) 25-13, 65.8% 299
EAST CONF GAME ML (Past 7 Days) 7-0, 100% 240
TREND RECORD UNITS
NW DIV GAME PS (Season) 19-13, 59.4% 470

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NBA Season Futures

Eastern SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
ATL
Toronto Raptors 57 24 57.7 24.3 100% 100%
Philadelphia 76ers 50 30 51.2 30.8 0% 100%
Boston Celtics 49 32 49.4 32.6 0% 100%
Brooklyn Nets 41 40 41.7 40.3 0% 100%
New York Knicks 16 64 17.0 65.0 0% 0%
CEN
Milwaukee Bucks 60 21 60.6 21.4 100% 100%
Indiana Pacers 47 34 47.4 34.6 0% 100%
Detroit Pistons 38 42 39.2 42.8 0% 38%
Chicago Bulls 23 57 23.7 58.3 0% 0%
Cleveland Cavaliers 20 61 20.4 61.6 0% 0%
SE
Orlando Magic 40 41 40.3 41.7 60.6% 84.6%
Charlotte Hornets 38 42 39.3 42.7 39.4% 59%
Miami Heat 38 42 38.8 43.2 0% 18.1%
Washington Wizards 32 49 32.6 49.4 0% 0%
Atlanta Hawks 29 52 29.6 52.4 0% 0%

Western SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
NW
Denver Nuggets 53 27 54.2 27.8 100% 100%
Portland Trail Blazers 51 29 52.5 29.5 0% 100%
Utah Jazz 49 31 50.1 31.9 0% 100%
Oklahoma City Thunder 47 33 47.8 34.2 0% 100%
Minnesota Timberwolves 36 44 36.5 45.5 0% 0%
PAC
Golden State Warriors 56 24 57.4 24.6 100% 100%
Los Angeles Clippers 47 34 47.6 34.4 0% 100%
Sacramento Kings 39 42 39.1 42.9 0% 0%
Los Angeles Lakers 37 44 37.4 44.6 0% 0%
Phoenix Suns 19 62 19.3 62.7 0% 0%
SW
Houston Rockets 53 28 53.5 28.5 100% 100%
San Antonio Spurs 47 34 47.6 34.4 0% 100%
New Orleans Pelicans 33 48 33.3 48.7 0% 0%
Memphis Grizzlies 32 48 32.6 49.4 0% 0%
Dallas Mavericks 31 49 32.0 50.0 0% 0%

Eastern, ATL

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, ATL

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, CEN

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, CEN

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, SE

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, SE

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, NW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, NW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, PAC

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, PAC

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, SW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, SW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

NBA Player performance projection


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