RB prospect group using logistic regression. It only makes sense to do the same thing with the WR position. Again, our goal is to find the likelihood that a player hits the 200 PPR point mark within three seasons.
The WR success model takes just three variables as inputs:
- Log of NFL Draft Scout Rank
- Adjusted Age
- Final Year Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
You can find these data points explained in my WR statistic glossary.
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WR Success Model Results
Below are the results of the model for all FBS prospects ranked inside of the top 50 of NFL Draft Scout rankings.
| Name | School | DS Rank | Adjusted Age | reyptpa | Succes Prob |
|---|
| Andy Isabella | Massachusetts | 14 | 21.2 | 4.33 | 0.65 |
| NKeal Harry | Arizona State | 2 | 20.2 | 2.97 | 0.64 |
| Marquise Brown | Oklahoma | 4 | 21.5 | 3.78 | 0.58 |
| A.J. Brown | Mississippi | 3 | 20.7 | 2.99 | 0.53 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | Stanford | 8 | 20.3 | 2.75 | 0.43 |
| D.K. Metcalf | Mississippi | 1 | 21 | 2.43 | 0.42 |
| Greg Dortch | Wake Forest | 23 | 19.7 | 2.67 | 0.41 |
| KeeSean Johnson | Fresno State | 27 | 20.6 | 3.05 | 0.36 |
| Hakeem Butler | Iowa State | 11 | 22.6 | 3.65 | 0.29 |
| LilJordan Humphrey | Texas | 13 | 20.7 | 2.47 | 0.27 |
| Emanuel Hall | Missouri | 18 | 21.6 | 2.94 | 0.23 |
| Kelvin Harmon | North Carolina State | 7 | 22 | 2.56 | 0.18 |
| Antoine Wesley | Texas Tech | 35 | 21.2 | 2.64 | 0.18 |
| Dillon Mitchell | Oregon | 41 | 21.6 | 2.84 | 0.17 |
| Damion Willis | Troy | 44 | 21.5 | 2.82 | 0.17 |
| Parris Campbell | Ohio State | 5 | 21.4 | 1.9 | 0.15 |
| Penny Hart | Georgia State | 31 | 20.7 | 2.06 | 0.15 |
| David Sills V | West Virginia | 9 | 21.7 | 2.22 | 0.14 |
| Deebo Samuel | South Carolina | 6 | 22.1 | 2.18 | 0.13 |
| Stanley Morgan Jr. | Nebraska | 43 | 21.4 | 2.49 | 0.13 |
| Preston Williams | Colorado State | 46 | 21.8 | 2.68 | 0.13 |
| Mecole Hardman | Georgia | 16 | 20.8 | 1.52 | 0.11 |
| Gary Jennings Jr. | West Virginia | 19 | 21.8 | 2.25 | 0.11 |
| Felton Davis III | Michigan State | 49 | 21 | 2.09 | 0.11 |
| Damarkus Lodge | Mississippi | 28 | 21.6 | 2.16 | 0.1 |
| Darius Slayton | Auburn | 12 | 21.9 | 1.94 | 0.09 |
| Jaylen Smith | Louisville | 33 | 20.5 | 1.4 | 0.09 |
| Miles Boykin | Notre Dame | 15 | 22.2 | 2.09 | 0.08 |
| Anthony Johnson | Buffalo | 22 | 23.1 | 2.7 | 0.08 |
| Tyre Brady | Marshall | 48 | 22.8 | 2.46 | 0.06 |
| Riley Ridley | Georgia | 10 | 22.4 | 1.57 | 0.05 |
| Travis Fulgham | Old Dominion | 26 | 23.3 | 2.4 | 0.05 |
| Jalen Hurd | Baylor | 32 | 22.9 | 2.1 | 0.04 |
| Cody Thompson | Toledo | 34 | 22.1 | 1.64 | 0.04 |
| Tony Pollard | Memphis | 30 | 21.7 | 1.11 | 0.03 |
| Tyron Johnson | Oklahoma State | 37 | 22.9 | 1.72 | 0.03 |
| Jamal Custis | Syracuse | 40 | 23.1 | 1.96 | 0.03 |
| Hunter Renfrow | Clemson | 17 | 23 | 1.07 | 0.02 |
| Terry McLaurin | Ohio State | 24 | 23.3 | 1.43 | 0.02 |
| JonVea Johnson | Toledo | 39 | 23 | 1.67 | 0.02 |
| Diontae Johnson | Toledo | 45 | 21.6 | 0.88 | 0.02 |
| Xavier Ubosi | Alabama-Birmingham | 47 | 24.8 | 2.84 | 0.02 |
The prospect given the best chance to succeed isn’t N’Keal Harry or D.K. Metcalf, it’s Andy Isabella out of UMass. Just one WR in my database had more receiving yards per team pass attempt than Isabella in his final season and didn’t go to Georgia Tech. That player was Dez Bryant. Isabella flashed 4.31 wheels at the Combine, and was extremely productive against Power 5 competition, including a 15/219/2 performance this year against Georgia. He is every bit the real deal, despite his small stature and school.
Harry is still rated highly by the model, just a percentage point behind Isabella. He is second in both Draft Scout rank and adjusted age, and was top six in receiving yards per team pass attempt. He is your prototypical top WR from a rookie draft perspective.
Marquise Brown and A.J. Brown make up the next tier, though the latter is more likely to go early in the draft. Hollywood had a serious foot injury to end his final season, making his status in question going forward given that his speed and explosiveness is a big part of his game. The Ole Miss product is an excellent chain-mover and found success on a team loaded with WR talent.
Metcalf finds himself fairly low based on his final season production, but the biggest red flag for him is probably the injuries that cost him his true freshman season and all but six games in 2018. It is worth noting that he played Brown to a draw when both were healthy this past season, and that his athletic profile gives Metcalf a fantastic ceiling.
Greg Dortch and KeeSean Johnson are attractive sleepers in this class. Though they have not received a ton of buzz from the scouting community, both players were productive at young ages as well as their final seasons. Dortch had a better athletic profile than Johnson, and has outstanding career production.
Hakeem Butler destroyed the Combine, and was very productive in his final season, but the scouts don’t seem to be buying in. Butler also did not break out until his age 22 season. There are some Josh Doctson-type of vibes here with Butler.
Emanuel Hall is a fun player that will likely contribute to an NFL offense even if he cannot find success for fantasy football. He averaged 20.8 yards per reception for his career, and ran a sub-4.4 forty yard dash at the Combine. He looks every bit the part of an NFL field-stretcher.
I continue to say that Paris Campbell is not an NFL WR. Though he tested very fast in the 40, Ohio State rarely, if ever, through the ball to him down the field.
Parris Campbell has elite, track speed… But Ohio State didn't just send him on verticals – in fact, they barely did.
Campbell has 2 CAREER catches on passes of 20+ air yards..
Look at a metric like 'target depth' to see where on field players are getting their share of passes pic.twitter.com/FXmXfrC0eS
— Ben Fennell (@BenFennell_NFL) March 22, 2019
Personally, I think Campbell is a RB at the next level in the mold of Theo Riddick. That makes him risky for fantasy purposes.
