December 30, 2018 12:15 PM CST

Arkansas State vs Nevada 12/29/2018

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Arkansas State winning 56% of simulations, and Nevada 44% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Arkansas State commits fewer turnovers in 38% of simulations and they go on to win 68% when they take care of the ball. Nevada wins 61% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Justice Hansen is averaging 266 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (41% chance) then he helps his team win 70%. Toa Taua is averaging 86 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is NEV -1 --- Over/Under line is 56

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

Arkansas StateATS RECORDNevadaATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games6-5-1All Games6-6-0Arkansas State
Road & Neutral Field3-4-0Road & Neutral Field3-4-0No Edge
When Underdog0-3-0When Favored2-3-0Nevada
Non-Conference Opp1-2-1Non-Conference Opp1-3-0Arkansas State
Opp .500+ Record2-3-1Opp .500+ Record3-2-0Nevada

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

Arkansas StateATS RECORDNevadaATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games5-6-0All Games6-5-0Nevada
Road & Neutral Field4-3-0Road & Neutral Field2-4-0Arkansas State
When Underdog1-1-0When Favored2-0-0Nevada
Non-Conference Opp1-3-0Non-Conference Opp1-2-0Nevada
Opp Under .5004-2-0Opp .500+ Record2-4-0Arkansas State

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

Arkansas StateO-U-P RECORDNevadaO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)2-10-0All Totals (O-U-P)4-8-0UNDER
On Road1-6-0At Home2-3-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season4-6-0All Totals Last Season4-7-0UNDER
On Road Last Season4-3-0At Home Last Season2-3-0No Edge

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