December 30, 2018 12:15 PM CST

Buffalo vs Troy 12/22/2018

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Buffalo winning 54% of simulations, and Troy 46% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Buffalo commits fewer turnovers in 29% of simulations and they go on to win 69% when they take care of the ball. Troy wins 60% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jaret Patterson is averaging 60 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (30% chance) then he helps his team win 64%. B.J. Smith is averaging 77 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 62%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is TROY +2.5 --- Over/Under line is 49.5

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

BuffaloATS RECORDTroyATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games9-4-0All Games7-4-1Buffalo
Road & Neutral Field5-3-0Road & Neutral Field5-1-1Troy
When Favored7-3-0When Underdog2-1-1Buffalo
Non-Conference Opp2-2-0Non-Conference Opp2-2-0Buffalo
Opp .500+ Record2-3-0Opp .500+ Record3-1-1Troy

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

BuffaloATS RECORDTroyATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-2-1All Games6-5-1Buffalo
Road & Neutral Field4-2-0Road & Neutral Field5-1-1Troy
When Favored2-1-1When Underdog3-0-1Troy
Non-Conference Opp2-0-1Non-Conference Opp2-1-1Buffalo
Opp .500+ Record4-0-0Opp Under .5001-4-0Buffalo

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

BuffaloO-U-P RECORDTroyO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)10-3-0All Totals (O-U-P)6-6-0OVER
On Road6-2-0At Home3-2-0OVER
All Totals Last Season4-7-0All Totals Last Season3-8-0UNDER
On Road Last Season1-5-0At Home Last Season2-3-0UNDER

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