November 09, 2018 1:33 PM CST

Mississippi State vs Alabama 11/10/2018 Game Forecast Preview  
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Alabama is a heavy favorite winning 88% of simulations over Mississippi State. Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 238 passing yards and 2.1 TDs per simulation and Damien Harris is projected for 66 rushing yards and a 46% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 12% of simulations where Mississippi State wins, Nick Fitzgerald averages 1.24 TD passes vs 0.92 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.61 TDs to 1.11 interceptions. Nick Fitzgerald averages 54 rushing yards and 0.63 rushing TDs when Mississippi State wins and 51 yards and 0.31 TDs in losses. Alabama has a 57% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 90% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is ALA -24.5 --- Over/Under line is 51.5

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

All Games5-3-0All Games6-3-0Alabama
Road & Neutral Field1-2-0Home Games3-2-0Alabama
When Underdog1-1-0When Favored6-3-0Alabama
Conference Opp2-3-0Conference Opp4-2-0Alabama
Opp .500+ Record5-3-0Opp .500+ Record4-1-0Alabama

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the Current Season.

All Games7-5-0All Games5-8-0Mississippi State
Road & Neutral Field3-3-0Home Games2-4-0Mississippi State
When Underdog3-2-0When Favored5-8-0Mississippi State
Conference Opp4-4-0Conference Opp3-6-0Mississippi State
Opp .500+ Record5-2-0Opp .500+ Record2-6-0Mississippi State


Mississippi StateO-U-P RECORDAlabamaO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)2-6-0All Totals (O-U-P)5-4-0UNDER
On Road0-3-0At Home3-2-0UNDER
All Totals Last Season3-9-0All Totals Last Season5-8-0UNDER
On Road Last Season2-4-0At Home Last Season2-4-0UNDER

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