July 17, 2019 2:22 PM CDT

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins 7/17/2019

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The San Diego Padres are 22-21 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 17-30 at home. The Padres have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Trevor Richards has a 45% chance of a QS and Chris Paddack a 46% chance. If Trevor Richards has a quality start the Marlins has a 55% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.2 and he has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Marlins win 42%. If Chris Paddack has a quality start the Padres has a 70% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 7 and he has a 57% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Padres win 61%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Garrett Cooper who averaged 2.2 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 37% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 52% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the San Diego Padres is Manny Machado who averaged 2.27 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 38% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Padres have a 72% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: San Diego Padres

San Diego PadresRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road22-21, 51% 411Record at Home17-30, 36% -828San Diego Padres
VS Miami Marlins1-2, 33% -142VS San Diego Padres2-1, 67% 222Miami Marlins
vs Team Under .50026-29, 47% -736vs Team Under .50015-15, 50% 376Miami Marlins
Record as Road Favorite6-6, 50% -129Record as Home Underdog15-28, 35% -792San Diego Padres
When Chris Paddack Starts8-6, 57% 131When Trevor Richards Starts5-13, 28% -556San Diego Padres

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: San Diego Padres

San Diego PadresRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road5-4, 56% 185Record at Home3-6, 33% -281San Diego Padres
VS Miami Marlins0-0 No GamesVS San Diego Padres0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5005-0, 100% 444vs Team Under .5006-3, 67% 497Miami Marlins
Record as Road Favorite2-2, 50% -68Record as Home Underdog2-6, 25% -368San Diego Padres
When Chris Paddack Starts2-1, 67% 118When Trevor Richards Starts0-4, 0% -400San Diego Padres

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

San Diego PadresRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD23-16, 59% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME24-19, 56% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS3-5, 38% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS6-1, 86% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON35-42, 45% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON32-46, 41% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Chris Paddack STARTS5-8, 38% OverOVER-UNDER IN Trevor Richards STARTS9-8, 53% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 19-24, 44% -493 Miami Marlins Home Games: 31-16, 66% +558 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 4-5, 44% +102 Miami Marlins Home Games: 6-3, 67% +58

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 20-23, 47% -806 Miami Marlins Home Games: 30-17, 64% +345 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 5-4, 56% +8 Miami Marlins Home Games: 6-3, 67% +58

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 17-20, 46% -500 Miami Marlins Home Games: 18-18, 50% -180 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - San Diego Padres Road Games: 1-6, 14% -560 Miami Marlins Home Games: 4-2, 67% + 180

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