July 17, 2019 2:22 PM CDT

New York Mets vs Minnesota Twins 7/17/2019

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The Minnesota Twins are 29-14 at home this season and are heavy favorites to beat the New York Mets who are 18-33 on the road this season. The Twins have a better than 60% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Twins\' starter Martin Perez is forecasted to have a better game than Mets\' starter Jason Vargas. Martin Perez has a 41% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Jason Vargas has a 25% chance of a QS. If Martin Perez has a quality start the Twins has a 87% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.2 and he has a 14% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Twins win 71%. In Jason Vargas quality starts the Mets win 63%. He has a 24% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 63% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Minnesota Twins is Nelson Cruz who averaged 2.85 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 51% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Twins have a 77% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Dominic Smith who averaged 2.54 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 44% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 45% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Minnesota Twins

New York MetsRECORDMinnesota TwinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road18-33, 35% -1392Record at Home29-14, 67% 622Minnesota Twins
VS Minnesota Twins1-1, 50% -51VS New York Mets1-1, 50% 87Minnesota Twins
vs Team .500 or Better25-38, 40% -1210vs Team .500 or Better25-21, 54% 334Minnesota Twins
Record As Road Underdog11-22, 33% -783Record As Home Favorite23-12, 66% 137Minnesota Twins
When Jason Vargas Starts7-8, 47% -46When Martin Perez Starts10-7, 59% 68Minnesota Twins

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Minnesota Twins

New York MetsRECORDMinnesota TwinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road5-9, 36% -432Record at Home5-4, 56% -3Minnesota Twins
VS Minnesota Twins0-0 No GamesVS New York Mets0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team .500 or Better3-5, 38% -200vs Team Under .5003-4, 43% -219New York Mets
Record As Road Underdog2-8, 20% -541Record As Home Favorite3-4, 43% -197Minnesota Twins
When Jason Vargas Starts1-3, 25% -160When Martin Perez Starts2-2, 50% -81Minnesota Twins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New York MetsRECORDMinnesota TwinsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD31-18, 63% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME19-20, 49% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS9-4, 69% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS5-4, 56% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON38-37, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON42-38, 52% OverUNDER
OVER-UNDER IN Jason Vargas STARTS6-8, 43% OverOVER-UNDER IN Martin Perez STARTS8-9, 47% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 31-20, 61% +658 Minnesota Twins Home Games: 27-16, 63% +240 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Mets Road Games: 8-6, 57% -7 Minnesota Twins Home Games: 5-4, 56% -3

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 31-20, 61% +320 Minnesota Twins Home Games: 28-15, 65% +336 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Mets Road Games: 10-4, 71% +293 Minnesota Twins Home Games: 5-4, 56% -3

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 30-16, 65% + 1240 Minnesota Twins Home Games: 18-18, 50% -180 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Mets Road Games: 8-2, 80% + 580 Minnesota Twins Home Games: 4-3, 57% + 70

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