July 12, 2019 2:57 AM CDT

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins 7/12/2019

AccuScore.com Game Forecast Preview  
Save 10% off membership by using coupon code: PREVIEW

The New York Mets are 16-32 on the road this season and are heavy favorites to beat the Miami Marlins who are 16-28 at home. The Mets have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Caleb Smith has a 38% chance of a QS and Jason Vargas a 33% chance. If Caleb Smith has a quality start the Marlins has a 60% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 4.8 and he has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Marlins win 44%. If Jason Vargas has a quality start the Mets has a 69% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.9 and he has a 36% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Mets win 62%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Miami Marlins is Neil Walker who averaged 2.39 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 40% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Marlins have a 55% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the New York Mets is Pete Alonso who averaged 2.45 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 42% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Mets have a 72% chance of winning.

CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

New York MetsRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road16-32, 33% -1414Record at Home16-28, 36% -715Miami Marlins
VS Miami Marlins4-4, 50% -162VS New York Mets4-4, 50% 225Miami Marlins
vs Team Under .50012-9, 57% -121vs Team .500 or Better23-44, 34% -691New York Mets
Record As Road Underdog11-21, 34% -683Record As Home Favorite1-2, 33% -123Miami Marlins
When Jason Vargas Starts7-7, 50% 54When Caleb Smith Starts6-7, 46% 90Miami Marlins

PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Miami Marlins

New York MetsRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDUNITS EDGE
Record on the Road3-8, 27% -454Record at Home4-6, 40% -162Miami Marlins
VS Miami Marlins0-0 No GamesVS New York Mets0-0 No GamesN/A
vs Team Under .5004-11, 27% -709vs Team Under .5008-3, 73% 889Miami Marlins
Record As Road Underdog2-7, 22% -441Record As Home Favorite1-1, 50% -23Miami Marlins
When Jason Vargas Starts1-3, 25% -160When Caleb Smith Starts1-0, 100% 166Miami Marlins

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

New York MetsRECORDMiami MarlinsRECORDO-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD29-17, 63% OverOVER-UNDER AT HOME22-18, 55% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS7-3, 70% OverROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS7-1, 88% OverOVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON38-37, 51% OverROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON32-46, 41% OverOVER
OVER-UNDER IN Jason Vargas STARTS5-8, 38% OverOVER-UNDER IN Caleb Smith STARTS4-7, 36% OverN/A

ACCUSCORE ADVISOR: AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times one play at a time. We are the industry standard in sports forecasting and the only company to be paid for sports picks and predictions by the biggest sports companies in the world. Our newest product, the AccuScore Advisor, provides Side Value, Money Line and Over-Under picks for every MLB game and rates them as One, Two, Three or Four Star picks. Three and Four Star picks have delivered over +10,000 units of profit the past 2 seasons. Visit AccuScore.com to find out what AccuScore\'s Advisor recommends for this game. The following trends are AccuScore\'s RIGHT-WRONG records and units (+/-) when making picks involving these teams.

SIDE VALUE (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 29-19, 60% +758 Miami Marlins Home Games: 29-15, 66% +536 SIDE VALUE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Mets Road Games: 6-5, 55% +93 Miami Marlins Home Games: 6-4, 60% +25

MONEY LINE (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 29-19, 60% +298 Miami Marlins Home Games: 28-16, 64% +323 MONEY LINE (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Mets Road Games: 8-3, 73% +271 Miami Marlins Home Games: 6-4, 60% +25

OVER-UNDER RECORD (Current Season) - New York Mets Road Games: 28-16, 64% + 1040 Miami Marlins Home Games: 16-18, 47% -380 OVER-UNDER RECORD (PAST 30 DAYS) - New York Mets Road Games: 6-2, 75% + 380 Miami Marlins Home Games: 3-3, 50% -30

Click here to see AccuScore's pick for this game

Save 10% off membership by using coupon code: PREVIEW
Joomla SEF URLs by Artio