NFL & College Football Expert for AccuScore. Makes regular appearances on ESPN's The Dave Dameshek Show Podcast.| Zach's Week 4 NCAAF Picks |
|
Everyone has an opinion and chances are you joined this site because you are interested in AccuScore's. I have gotten a lot of email about my personal picks and how I use the AccuScore computer to narrow down my selections. This is a slippery slope because AccuScore posts its record based on every game, whereas I apply various aspects of my toolbox to my selections. When I look at the weekly menu, the first thing I look for is a point spread that jumps out at me. Something that looks like a miss or good value. I will also preface that I am not big on taking points. It's not that taking points is a bad thing, it just is not my thing. Once I see a game I like, I look at the ATS % in the Live Betting Predictions and then follow it up with a series of cross referencing analysis in the Daily Line Report. It is early in the season so you the DLR is not the firm source it will be a month from now, but ifthe DLR is not a key factor in your AccuScore method you are a fool. When I look at the DLR, I starting out looking to see if my picks are bad. I already think my picks are good, otherwise they wouldn't be "my" picks. So I am looking to discredit them. I want to see if the computer says I am wrong. If the trends and history around my pick are at about 50% so far, I am ok with it. Again, only three weeks of data has been loaded in there so 50% is not going to de-value my selection. Next step is knowing your team. As Gordon Gecko said, "The public's out there throwing darts at a board, sport. I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things." While there is no such thing as a sure thing in sports, there are plenty of dart throwers out there. You should never make a play on a game if you are not familiar with the teams. Information is so key and you want to have a good feeling of what you are getting, especially if you are laying points. Click here to see the games that stand out to me, and my reasoning. (Requires Winner's Edge Membership to View) |