AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

Using the Daily Line Reports to Find “Hot Trends”

Special Subscribers Only Podcast: This Weekends Best 4 AccuScore Plays Explained Using the DLR

We often get the question “what is the best method in picking games? Should I go with games that are only 60% or higher?” Our answer to this is an emphatic “No!" If you are going to play a game and subscribe to our service, we hope you use our service to create the advantage that you paid for. The Daily Line Report is where AccuScore members can find that advantage.

Below is an example of how I have used the DLR to find the hot trends for the NFL season and then applied them to the specific games. Here are the top trends that we have noticed.

Totals

AccuScore O/U selections are 80% in NFC East divisional games

AccuScore O/U selections are 68% when NFC North plays Non-NFC North Teams

AccuScore’s O/U selection is 67% in games where the number is 37.5 or less

AccuScore’s O/U selection is 62% in games where the home teams is favored by 7 or more

These are high percentage trends and serve as a great parameter for determining games. My next step is to look deeper into the games that fit into one of the above scenarios. While there are several, I have found three (3) games where that produced sustainable trends under my starting parameters.

Bengals/Raiders Over/Under (36) Click here for AccuScore's Pick in this gameEDGE

• 67% when O/U is less than 37.5
• 57% (26-20) when Vegas total and Sim total differ by 0.5-1.5
• 60% (12-8) when AFC North plays Non-AFC North Teams
• 58% (11-8-3) when AFC West plays Non-AFC West Teams
• 75% (6-2) in o/u picks when Raiders play
• 56% (5-4) in o/u picks when Bengals play

Cowboys/Redskins Over/Under (41.5) Click here for AccuScore's Pick in this gameEDGE

• 80% (4-1) in totals of NFC East divisional games
• 61% (31-20) accuracy in o/u picks in NFC games
• 62% (26-16) accuracy in Totals when home team is favored by 7 or more
• 59% (44-30) accuracy in picks when the total number is between 38-44.5
• 67% (6-3) in o/u picks when Redskins play
• 62% (5-3-1) in o/u picks when Cowboys play

Packers/49ers Over/Under (41.5) Click here for AccuScore's Pick in this gameEDGE

• 68% (15-7) when NFC North plays Non-NFC North Teams
• 59% (13-9) when NFC West plays Non-NFC West Teams
• 61% (31-20) accuracy in o/u picks in NFC games
• 55% (16-13) accuracy in Totals when home team is favored between 3.5-6.5
• 59% (44-30) accuracy in picks when the total number is between 38-44.5
• 62% (5-3-1) in o/u picks when Packers play
• 50% (4-4) in o/u picks when the 49ers play

ATS

AccuScore ATS selections are 100% in 7-0 in AFC East divisional games
AccuScore ATS selections are 100% in 7-0 in NFC North divisional games
AccuScore ATS selections are 67% when the Vegas line and Sim line differ by 4-5.5 points
AccuScore ATS selections are 61% in NFC games
AccuScore ATS selections are 59% when NFC East plays Non-NFC East Teams

As I did with Totals, I used the above trends as a starting point to find games. After going in and out of the tabs on the DLR, there was only one game where I could find multiple hot trends to support my starting parameters.

Patriots/Jets Point Spread Click here for AccuScore's Pick in this gameEDGE

• 100% (7-0) in AFC East Match-ups
• 54% (21-18-6) in games when the home team is favored by 7 or more
• 62% (13-8) when the Vegas line and Sim line differ by 3-3.5
• 67% (6-3) in ATS picks when the Jets play
• 57% (4-3) in ATS picks when the Patriots play

Don't Have Winner's Edge Yet? Click Here to Learn More

It has been a wild college football season so far and the chaos of the BCS does not even arrive until October 18 and we will certainly know a lot more than we do right now. I have spent some time analyzing how the BCS rankings would shake out if they came out today and analysis of what you might see in the middle of October and into November.

 There are few things to note:

1)  Only four (4) of the computer polls are currently public. The Anderson & Hester and Wolfe poll are not out yet. This is important because when factoring in a team's computer ranking, you disregard that teams highest and lowest computer ranking. Because only four are available right now, I did not throw out any scores. 

2) The Sagarin Rankings are the only computer poll that also projects how a team will finish in his poll. This is very significant. For example, Oklahoma is currently #27 in the Sagarin, but projected to finish second (behind Florida). 

 3) I have decided to only use the following teams since I feel they have the most realistic chance to make the BCS Title Game: Florida, Alabama, LSU, Texas, USC, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Boise State, Ohio State, Iowa and TCU.

I did not include Michigan, Oregon, Miami (Fla), Penn State, Houston or Oklahoma State (more on these teams in a bit).

4) I have broken the rankings into two polls: 1) composite rankings that use the current Sagarin Rankings (CSR) 2) composite rankings that use the projected Sagarin Rankings (PSR).

 CSR                 PSR

1- Florida           Florida

2- Alabama        Texas

3- Texas            Alabama

4- LSU               LSU

5- Boise State     Boise State

6- Virginia Tech   Virginia Tech

7- USC               Oklahoma

8- TCU               USC

9- Cincinnati        Ohio State

10- Oklahoma      Cincinnati

11- Ohio State    TCU

12- Iowa             Iowa

 **

As I stated, these rankings are a snap shot of what you would see if the BCS announced their rankings today. Beyond this, there is important data to pay attention to. 

Boise State: Conventional thinking is that four of the teams in front of Boise State are from the SEC and only one team can play for the title; combine that with Texas losing to Oklahoma and you would think Boise State is in the driver’s seat. The problem with that logic is just that...its logical. Boise State seems to have peaked in the computer polls. Despite winning by close to 5 touchdowns on the road last week, they lost ground in three of the four computer polls. The one they stabilized in (Sagarin) is projected to downgrade the Broncos three spots by year’s end. It appears that Boise State's highest projected computer ranking at the end of the season would be Sagarin's #5 and that would be disregarded because of the formula. All indications is that Boise State would finish around #7 or #8 in the final computer rankings. Even if Oregon won out and Boise State finished consensus #1 in the Coaches and Harris Poll's, they would not be in the top two spots in the BCS. Sad reality to how the system works. 

 SEC: I lump in the SEC as one because there is no other way to look at it. Every indication that factors in logic, computer, human polls indicates that the SEC is in. It doesn't matter if it is Florida, LSU or Alabama...as long as the SEC champion has one loss, they are going to Pasadena. I know the next question is what if a two-loss team wins the SEC in an upset, does Boise State get in? The answer is still no. Boise State is out.

Texas: Texas is currently in the drivers seat for the second ticket to Pasadena. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State's early losses did them no favors, but the love affair with Texas exists in both the human and computer rankings. Sagarin is the only computer that does not have them in the top five, but that will not matter because that low score will be disregarded. After last year, the human polls are not going to abandon the Horns either, even if Iowa stays undefeated. That bad news for the Horns is they should lose a game from this point on, they would become a long shot with dismal odds to go to Pasadena. Even if they found a way in and won the Big 12 championship, they would need the Big 10, Pac 10 and ACC champions to each have two losses.

Iowa: They are a serious contender right now. The computers love them, but the humans are slow to catch on. Currently, they are the top ranked team in the Colley Matrix and Sagarin Rankings (projected to finish 11th). However, unlike Boise State, an undefeated Iowa team would have to beat Michigan and Ohio State. By that time, the human polls would catch on and Sagarin would have Iowa somewhere in his top four spots. It is very conceivable that if both Texas and Iowa win out, Iowa could get in over Texas, but not likely. If Iowa were to be ranked in the top five right now, Texas's lead over them in the overall BCS rankings would be very very very small.

 Virginia Tech: Currently, the Hokies seem to be the most likely of the one-loss teams to get in (if the Big 10 and Big 12 do not have an undefeated champion). They are downgraded in the Colley Matrix and Massey Polls, but are #5 in the Billingsley and Sagarin Rankings.  The Colley and Massey figure to improve and the Billingsley and Sagarin would either improve or stabilize which translates into Virginia Tech being next in line. Right behind them is Oklahoma.

Oklahoma: The Sooners did themselves no favors by losing to BYU, but all will be forgotten if they can run the table. The Sagarin Rankings are a good place to get a read on how the computers will judge Oklahoma. If computers had emotions, they would hate Oklahoma right now. Despite the Sagarin Rankings Predictor projecting Oklahoma to finish #2, they are currently #27...and the Colley Matrix currently lists them at #53.  Massey ranks them #5 and Billingsley has them at #13. If OU win out (BIG If), the computers will go from hate to love. Assuming they do, Oklahoma can only improve on their Massey ranking and the Colley Matrix ranking would be disregarded. I cannot tell you how each computer would rank OU, but their eligible rankings for the BCS formula would most likely be #2, #2, #3, #4.  Remember, if they win out, they would have enough points in the human polls to neutralize the other top notch one loss teams. With that being said, it would be between them and Virginia Tech with the Hokies having the early advantage. 

USC:  I have looked at USC every which way and I don’t see how they would be able to overtake Virginia Tech and Oklahoma if the three should win out. The biggest obstacle facing the Trojans is that both the ACC and Big 12 have an extra game against a quality opponent because of their championship game and that is a huge factor. From a statistical point of view, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma and Ohio State have a higher probability than USC to win out.  

TCU: The Frogs will have to win the Mountain West to be in the discussion and that would be all they would gain if they did. You can take all of last year's rhetoric with Utah and replace it with TCU. TCU would most likely finish with an average computer score of #5, which would not be enough to get in because the teams in front of them in the computers would also hold the same advantage in the human polls.

The Best of the Rest

Oregon: The computers really like the Ducks. Billingsley #5, Sagarin #6 (projected #9), Massey #13, Colley #15. If Oregon wins out, they are in the hunt if they can get the human polls to forget about the debacle against Boise State. I don't think Oregon will be able to overcome their status in the human rankings and it is an odd situation because they would have to win out to make the BCS. However, if they beat USC and the other games where they are favored, they are going to be on the first page of the leader board despite having no real shot at BCS title.

Michigan: Michigan is currently #3 in the Colley Matrix, but not making much noise with the other computers. Their high Colley ranking would be disregarded and the computers are not going to take a liking to Michigan unless they win all their games. An undefeated Michigan team does not get in over an undefeated Texas team. Michigan is not a player with one loss either. 

Houston: The best they can hope for is a BCS birth, which is very possible if TCU loses.  If Boise State, TCU and Houston all go undefeated, the BCS would probably lock Houston out.  There would be too many name programs that the BCS bowl committee would choose over the Cougars. However if either Boise State and TCU should lose and Houston wins out, they would most likely make it. That being said, there is no chance for the Cougars to play for a national title.

**

If you have made it this far in the article, you probably have a headache. Don’t worry, I do too. Remember, the rankings are based on current computer projections against the actual human polls. This time next month, either Texas or Oklahoma will be eliminated and the SEC will play itself out in the first weekend of December. Stay tuned.

Last year there was such an uproar over the BCS and Oklahoma getting in over Texas. Texas's argument: Head to Head competition. A season later, the coaches continue to not care about what happens on the field, and look no further to the most recent coaches poll to prove that point.

Oklahoma State (3-1) #12 -- Houston (3-0) #15

Penn State (3-1) #13 -- Iowa (4-0) #17

Cal (3-1) #19 -- Oregon (3-1) #25

I will spare my thoughts on the other bizarre happenings and save that for talk radio.  Once again, this goes to reinforce that head to head match-ups just don't matter. If they dont matter now, then they won't matter when it comes time to figure out who the two top ranked teams are. 

Everyone has an opinion and chances are you joined this site because you are interested in AccuScore's. I have gotten a lot of email about my personal picks and how I use the AccuScore computer to narrow down my selections. This is a slippery slope because AccuScore posts its record based on every game, whereas I apply various aspects of my toolbox to my selections.

When I look at the weekly menu, the first thing I look for is a point spread that jumps out at me. Something that looks like a miss or good value. I will also preface that I am not big on taking points. It's not that taking points is a bad thing, it just is not my thing. Once I see a game I like, I look at the ATS % in the Live Betting Predictions and then follow it up with a series of cross referencing analysis in the Daily Line Report. It is early in the season so you the DLR is not the firm source it will be a month from now, but ifthe DLR is not a key factor in your AccuScore method you are a fool.

When I look at the DLR, I starting out looking to see if my picks are bad. I already think my picks are good, otherwise they wouldn't be "my" picks. So I am looking to discredit them. I want to see if the computer says I am wrong. If the trends and history around my pick are at about 50% so far, I am ok with it. Again, only three weeks of data has been loaded in there so 50% is not going to de-value my selection.

Next step is knowing your team. As Gordon Gecko said, "The public's out there throwing darts at a board, sport. I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things." While there is no such thing as a sure thing in sports, there are plenty of dart throwers out there. You should never make a play on a game if you are not familiar with the teams. Information is so key and you want to have a good feeling of what you are getting, especially if you are laying points.

Click here to see the games that stand out to me, and my reasoning. (Requires Winner's Edge Membership to View)

One of the most common questions I get at AccuScore is "should I always take the high probability pick" when looking at ATS simulations? The answer is no! Even though it is early in the season, the AccuScore Daily Line Report should be a vital tool in looking at games. You get full transparency in AccuScore's selections season to date.

Last week, AccuScore's two highest probability picks were USC -20 and BYU -7.5  Prior to that game, the AccuScore computer was 1-4 in picks where BYU and USC played. Moreover, if you watched BYU vs. Oklahoma you would have seen BYU struggled against a fast defense. And if you had watched either of the two USC games, you would see that they are a run first, ball control offense.

This week, Tennessee plays Ohio and is a 23.5 point favorite. Ohio +23.5 is a 62.9% favorite. It is easy to look at those numbers and think Ohio is the play. You are wrong. This is a situation where you might want to fade AccuScore and here is why.

This season, the AccuScore computer is 0-6 in games where Tennessee and Ohio are involved. That shows that game involves two teams that are not playing close to the computer simulations. You will see that the 62.9% is vulnerable.  If taking the +23.5 with these teams has 0-6 trending accuracy, then laying the 23.5 is inversely proportional.

My next step is applying the eye test. Tennessee has struggled against name brand opponents that look to control the game in the trenches. Ohio is not that team. Although Tennessee has struggled in their past two games under Crompton, I look at the first game of the season and see a team that put up over 600 yards of offense and beat up on a second tier program. 

 My suggestion if you are going to play this game is to fade AccuScore and lay the points with Tennessee. 

 Make sure you use your Daily Line Report to see the trending accuracy for the teams and situations involving your picks. 

College football fans don’t always understand how the BCS works, who to root for and if it is good or bad when a team that beats you loses later in the season. Oklahoma fans are making this mistake by openly rooting against Texas, thinking the BYU loss to Florida State mattered and giggling at Nebraska’s misfortune.

 Here is what Oklahoma fans need to focus on and understand:

1) If you are bummed, worried or concerned about the BYU loss to Florida State, don't be.  It does not effect the Sooners. OU's loss to BYU was what it was and from a national point of view, it was more about no Bradford and Gresham than it was about the poor play.

2) Washington beating USC has a monumental effect on OU. It basically eliminates that Pac 10. Next step for Sooner fans is to root against Cal. After seeing their game, Cal is good, but not great. They are also soft at wide receiver and have trouble defending the pass. As for USC...they are o-u-t out.

3) The Big 10 could not be working out any better for OU. The Sooners needed USC to put a loss on Ohio State's books and they did. Ohio State is the team most likely to give Penn State a loss. Now with Michigan playing so well and Penn State having to travel to Ann Arbor, the probability of Penn State losing a game is even greater than AccuScore had projected.

4) Miami is the big dark horse. Usually a team like Miami could really mess up OU’s long shot hopes to get in as a one-loss team, but Oklahoma hit the jackpot by having Miami on the schedule.  If Miami beats Virginia Tech, Oklahoma finds themselves in a showcase game against a team that will have a lot of hype.  Win or lose, Miami should finish with at least nine wins. That will count for a lot in the computer polls late in the season.

5) Take a look at the teams in front of OU and it shapes up perfectly. Take LSU, Florida, Miss, Alabama and remember only one team can make it to the BCS title game. So eliminate three teams. OU will be ranked behind Miami and Texas, but gets to play them, so for sake of this argument eliminate two more. Also eliminate Boise State because of strength of schedule. That is the stuff OU had control over either directly or indirectly.

The variables to worry about are now Cal and Penn State.

5a) What if Ohio State wins out? They will not have enough in the computer polls. Let’s just say for argument sake both teams win out. Both teams will probably be a carbon copy of each other in the human polls with little to no separation. The gap between a one loss Ohio State and Oklahoma would be extremely small.

*Quick note on how the human polls work. Ranking does not matter. It is those points you see in the parenthesis that matter.It is all about the "points" you have. Those points are then converted into a percentage against the total points in the rankings pool.

Example: Texas is #2 in the Coaches Poll (1412) and Alabama is #3 (1355). While the gap between 2 and 3 is huge because it means in vs. out, when you convert those numbers into a percentage against the total points available...they are separated by just tenths of a percentage. This effectively neutralizes the rankings and puts a huge emphasis on the computers (despite them only counting for 1/3 for the formula).

6) For OU to win out, they will have to beat Miami, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Nebraska twice. All those teams will  be ranked when OU plays them and will most likely finish the season ranked. Moreover, it is looks like Tulsa will play for a Conference USA Championship and blanking that offense will account for a lot.

7) Get conference pride. It is fine to hate Texas and not think much of Oklahoma State. But you need those teams to be good, specifically Texas. If you want to go to Pasadena, root for the media to treat Texas like idols and to put them on the pedestal because if OU beats them and has an identical record.... BYU, TUL, MIA > WYO, ULM, UTEP, UCF.


There is a lot of football left everybody, but as of today Big 12 vs. SEC is the strongest probability for the BCS title game. Cal and Penn State are the flies in the ointment. Root for USC to beat Cal to just get Cal out of the way. And Cal goes to Oregon who is showing signs of life.