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Friday, 31 July 2009 00:00 |
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July 31, 2009: Victor Martinez Boosts Boston
The recent hot streak
by the Yankees have allowed them to overtake the Red Sox in the AL East.
Before the Victor Martinez trade the Yankees won the division 77% of
the time (based on 10,000 simulations) with Boston winning just 19%
despite their significant head-to-head advantage.
| BEFORE
MARTINEZ TRADE |
|
|
|
|
|
| AL EAST
TOP 3 |
WINS |
LOSS |
WIN% |
DIV |
PLAYOFF |
| New York
Yankees |
96.1 |
65.9 |
59.3% |
77% |
90% |
| Boston
Red Sox |
90.9 |
71.1 |
56.1% |
19% |
50% |
| Tampa Bay
Rays |
87.1 |
74.9 |
53.8% |
4% |
19% |
Victor Martinez is helping Boston significantly
boosting their chances of making the playoffs by 13 percentage points
(a 26% improvement), but he Yankees are still the solid 68% favorite
to win the division.
| AL EAST
TOP 3 |
WINS |
LOSS |
WIN% |
DIV |
PLAYOFF |
| New York
Yankees |
95.6 |
66.4 |
59.0% |
68% |
88% |
| Boston
Red Sox |
92.1 |
69.9 |
56.9% |
28% |
63% |
| Tampa Bay
Rays |
86.9 |
75.1 |
53.6% |
4% |
15% |
On a per game basis, Boston is improving
by an average of +2 percentage points per game with Martinez playing
most games. Over a full season that is a +3.2 win impact, but
over the rest of the season it helps Boston win +1.2 more games.
| BOSTON
RECORD |
WIN |
LOSS |
WIN% |
| Current
Record |
59 |
42 |
58.4% |
| Rest of
Season Before Trade |
31.9 |
29.1 |
52.3% |
| Rest of
Season w/ Martinez |
33.1 |
27.9 |
54.3% |
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