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When you look at college football from
a year to year basis, it has the potential to get tricky. There is a
lot of turnover at key positions and new faces that are unproven. Whereas
the players in the NFL have a longer statistical memory, college football
is flushed with new faces and turnover at key positions.
Looking ahead at the 2009 season, we
have done an analysis on the teams that brought us the highest returns
last year and determine if our clients can use past performance to create
an advantage for the upcoming season.
The reason we included “GAME WINNER”
in this table is because in many cases, we are not dealing with teams
that were overwhelming favorites (except Ohio State and Oklahoma State).
These are teams that currently live in the middle of the road, but played
very close to the AccuScore simulations straight up and against the
spread.
UNLV Rebels
Overview:
We are very excited about the 2009
UNLV season, with the Rebels returning seven starters on both offense
and defense. You have a new non-conference schedule with UNLV
so I suggest waiting for their conference schedule to kick in before
playing their point spreads.
Advice:
The UNLV conference schedule is identical
to last year and the Rebels should not get a lot of respect coming off
a 5-7 season. Our advice is to pay attention to UNLV in their first
three games of the year and then look for the big gap between the AccuScore
simulation and the Vegas line once conference play starts because you
will find tremendous value.
Miami Hurricanes
Overview:
For a team who had such a strong 2007
recruiting class, the start of the 2009 season looks like a disaster
waiting to happen. AccuScore’s early projections show the Hurricanes
are a strong candidate to go 0-4, but we are not sure the odds makers
are going to be quick to catch on.
Advice:
Any time a team returns eight starters
on offense and seven on defense, we are excited. Combine that with our
83% ML accuracy and 82% ATS accuracy and we are very encouraged about
the potential of our picks in Miami games. Unlike UNLV, we suggest jumping
with both feet with Miami games being that their first four games are
against teams that return a lot of starters (with statistical track
records) as well.
Arizona State
Overview:
Arizona State is not a team that I
would invest time in early in the season. They are a mediocre team that
will play a lot of mediocre teams in the Pac 10. We are interested to
see how they do in replacing Rudy Carpenter and if they can get sustainable
play from the running back position.
Advice:
With only 13 starters back in 2009,
we advise you to wait to see how Arizona State matches up with the projections.
If numbers trend successfully, we suggest waiting until mid-October
before getting involved with any sort of action with the Sun Devils.
An important barometer is measuring their projected stats vs. actual
stats when they travel to Georgia on September 26.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Overview:
Ohio State is a team that we expect
to do very well with in 2009. I am not sure how much better you can
do than 12-0 straight up, but we believe the Buckeyes will repeats as
a very profitable team this year. We are concerned that they replace
Robiske and Hartline at wide receiver, but those two bailed out Terrell
Prior more than anything. Because Ohio State is not a precision passing
team, we think the younger receiving core will allow Ohio State to play
even closer to their projections this season
Advice:
The game everyone wants to talk about
is USC coming to Columbus. This is a game where the number will be very
important. From a strategic point perspective, the advantage is to Ohio
State. Ohio State also has fewer variables to worry about, whereas USC
will be playing a new quarterback and have eight new faces on defense.
Although Ohio State only returns five starters on offense, their running
game will be more effective with Dan Herron and Prior and Ohio State
is the best team in the conference.
Washington Huskies
Overview:
Washington will improve under Steve
Sarkisian and that is all they can do after their 2008 season. However,
we noticed that Washington gets an abnormal amount of respect with the
odds makers in Vegas, thus presenting good financial opportunities for
the player. Our computer were quick to realize Washington would
not be good. The only games we picked them to win last year were at
home vs. Stanford and against Washington State.
Advice:
Last year’s respect on the Vegas
line seems to be already showing itself for this season when the Huskies
host LSU. Despite being in a hard to reach area of the country, Washington
had no home field advantage and gave up a minimum of four touchdowns
to each talented program who played in Seattle. LSU is only a 17 point
favorite on the road (up 3 points from the opening line) and AccuScore
has LSU by 21 in this game. Additionally, should USC lose to Ohio State,
you might also get a friendly price when the Huskies host the Trojans
on September 19th. Washington returns 18 starters and we
see nothing to indicate that we will not duplicate our 2008 record in
picks where Washington plays.
Oklahoma State
Overview:
Oklahoma State will be in the top ten
throughout the entire year and we feel they will be this year’s Texas
Tech. The Cowboys return every member of one of the nation’s most
potent offenses with a coach dedicated to making it work again. Despite
this being “their” year, AccuScore had the 2008 team pegged with
83% accuracy straight up and 67% against the spread.
Advice:
The Cowboys schedule sets up great
for their run, and for the player to get great value. OSU is only a
5.5 point favorite when they open their season at home against a terribly
overrated Georgia team. AccuScore feels this line is off by seven points
and the Cowboys should be able to flex their muscle with a double
digit win against a traditional SEC power. If OSU does beat Georgia,
the odd makers should come back with a big overlay in points when host
Houston the following week. Houston can score points (37 last year against
OSU) and should provide a good opportunity to take an awful lot of points.
Additionally, OSU drew the week part of the Big 12 North and matches
up against Missouri, Iowa State and Colorado. AccuScore was 29-6 straight
up with those three teams in 2008 indicating that all three match-ups
will be with teams who play close to our simulations.
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