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Everyone loves the new guy.  It’s especially true for back-up quarterbacks, and in baseball it’s true for hotshot prospects every spring.  Every year though, fantasy players jump a bit overboard looking for the next big thing and reach for prospects without defined roles, are too far from the majors, or simply not as good as their press clippings.  Here is a quick look at some rookies that could be interesting in fantasy this season.

Jason Heyward – OF, Atlanta
If there is one rookie to own in fantasy this year, this is the guy.  Conventional wisdom would say Heyward would return to the minors at least to start the year, but this is not a conventional player.  Universally seen as the top position player prospect in baseball, Heyward is a freak of nature.  He is still just 20 years old, but stands 6’4’’ and is up to 235 lbs. He also has been crushing balls this spring drawing rave reviews from everyone, and leading to comparisons to Albert Pujols from opposing managers.  Currently AccuScore has a conservative projection of 50% playing time with close to a .300 average and 13 home runs.  If he wins a job out of spring, he should be the true breakout star fantasy owners are looking for.  With Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz, and Eric Hinske being his main competition, RF looks like the perfect spot for Heyward in 2010.

Desmond Jennings – OF, Tampa Bay
Here is the classic case of a top prospect that fantasy owners should temper expectations for.  While viewed as a top 10 prospect, Jennings might not see a major league field this season.  Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton have two OF spots locked up, and Matt Joyce, and Gabe Kapler are very serviceable.  Jennings isn’t draftable in all but the deepest mixed leagues (unless you’re in a keeper/dynasty league of course).

Scott Sizemore – 2B, Detroit
Sizemore is the likely starter at 2B, and playing time is the key to success for any prospect.  He is not flashy, but put up solid numbers in the minors hitting .297.  More importantly he had a career .383 OBP which could lead to a decent run total in Detroit.  Sizemore has average speed, but could get you around 15-20 stolen bases with a full season of work.  He’s worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Brandon Wood – 3B, Anaheim
It’s probably now or never for Wood with the Angels. The loss of Chone Figgins leaves the 3B job to Wood, and we project him to hit .265 with solid power about 20 home runs. His problem has always been a long swing that leads to strikeouts, something he improved on last season. Wood is probably ready for a major league role, but I personally get the feeling the Angels don’t trust him and that Mike Scioscia flat-out doesn’t like him (as a player). For some reason, Scioscia seems to prefer Macier Izturis. A trade to another team would probably improve his fantasy outlook.

Drew Stubbs – OF, Cincinnati
Stubbs will probably face some competition for the CF job from Chris Dickerson, but he is likely to win a starting spot. We currently project Stubbs for a .277 average with 30 steals and more than 80 runs.  That is a useful fantasy player.  His does have a problem with strikeouts, and hit just .202 on the road in about 200 major-league at-bats last season. However, he is just 25 and will have time and opportunity this season.  He could be a nice late-round pick-up.

Tommy Manzella – SS, Houston
The fact that he will be the starting SS for the Astros should be an indictment on the entire franchise.  Manzella posted a career .321 OBP in the minors.  He is all glove and no-hit, somebody you don’t want to own in fantasy.

Michael Brantley – OF, Cleveland
The signing of Russell Branyan might leave Brantley without a job pushing Matt LaPorta to LF. Still, Brantley is a name to remember for later in the year.  He hit .313 during a September call-up, and is a career .300 avg / .383 OBP hitter in the minors with plus speed.  With a full season of work he could hit for a solid average with 40 steals and good run totals (but without much power).

New Jersey Nets – Yi Jianlian will be re-evaluated in a week. Could easily be out longer than that.
Dallas Mavericks – Brendan Haywood “might” be back today. My guess is he's less than 50/50 to play. Officially he’s questionable.
New York Knicks – Tracy McGrady scheduled to play tonight.
New Orleans Hornets – Peja Stojakovic out minimum 2 weeks with a groin injury.
Minnesota Timberwolves – Wayne Ellington still hasn’t returned to practice. His ankle sprain is reportedly severe.
Denver – Kenyon Martin is unlikely to return in the regular season.

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS

Conference tournaments are well underway with teams locking up bids daily. The true “power” conferences are tipping off across the country as well starting with the Big East on Tuesday. To properly prepare to maximize profits we have put together a quick review of how AccuScore has performed picking spreads and totals in key conferences. The full review is available to Winner’s Edge Members in the Daily Line Report, but here are a few highlights:

POINT SPREADS
These are some of the top conference records. Only the Ivy League does not hold a season-ending conference tournament.

Our record for the Big East is important because of the size of the league. There are more games to be played in the league, all at a semi-neutral site in Madison Square Garden. While Cornell has already locked up the Ivy League bid, it is important to note the quality of the Big Red. Given the right draw, Cornell could easily upset a team in the first round. That chance for an upset could be a big-time profit opportunity.

OVER/UNDERS OR TOTALS
This season, AccuScore Over/Under picks have performed slightly better than point spreads. Below are some highlighted conferences with good records on totals. AccuScore also has a 75-46, 62% record on totals in neutral court games where most conference tournaments will be held. Always be careful to note however when teams play at “semi-neutral” sites that are close to home campuses, i.e. UCLA at Staples Center. While the impact is not the same as a true homecourt, the lack of need for travel and larger presence of home fans still matters.

Indiana Pacers - Danny Granger suspended tonight
Portland Trail Blazers – Marcus Camby says he will “re-evaluate” his ankle later today.  His minutes could be limited this week with 4 games in 6 days.
Charlotte Bobcats – Nazr Mohammed likely doubtful.  He still isn’t able to practice fully.
Houston Rockets – David Andersen doubtful
Phoenix Suns – Channing Frye suspended for Friday
Golden State Warriors – Andris Biedrins out the rest of the season. Will undergo surgery tomorrow.

Before Tony Parker’s injury, the Spurs were projected to finish 6th in the West with 49.3 wins – just ahead of the Thunder and the Blazers.  Now with the news that Parker will miss 6 weeks with a wrist injury San Antonio is projected to finish – 6th in the West.

Despite losing Parker, a 3-time All-Star, for possibly the rest of the regular the forecast for San Antonio does not change significantly. His absence will mean more minutes for George Hill and Roger Mason with Manu Ginobili assuming more ball-handling duties. Keith Bogans and Malik Hairston could see increased minutes on the wing as well. 

The non-change in the forecast is less an indictment on Parker – currently averaging 16.5 points and 5.7 assists – and more circumstances beyond his influence at this point in the season. The Spurs are basically locked into one of the final three playoff spots in the West. They currently sit 1.0 game behind Oklahoma City and 1.5 ahead of Portland.  More importantly, the Spurs are 5.5 games ahead of 9th place Memphis.  With only 22 games remaining, it would take a complete collapse for San Antonio to fall out of playoff position.  The presence of Hill, Ginobili, and Tim Duncan makes that scenario extremely unlikely.

As you can see, Memphis has only a 3% chance of passing one of the three teams ahead of it including San Antonio. In the West, only the seeding is left to be determined at this point.

San Antonio’s closing schedule is very tough featuring road games against Boston, Phoenix, Denver, Dallas, Orlando, and the Lakers. The upside though is that San Antonio would be underdogs in all these road games even with a healthy Parker. The home schedule is no cake-walk either with the Cavs, Lakers, and Magic but the situation here is similar as well.  The overall forecast remains the same so Spurs fans shouldn’t worry about the rest of the regular season too much.  Instead, the team just needs to get Parker healthy for the playoffs.

Cleveland Cavaliers – LeBron is officially a game-time decision.  He was not at the shootaround today.  The Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks he is more doubtful to play tonight because of the way the schedule shakes out. We have him out of simulations.
Golden State Warriors – Don Nelson says Radmanovic is still too injured to play.  No real official updates, but I would guess he’s out another 1-2 weeks.
New Jersey Nets – Yi Jianlian out 1 week minimum
Dallas Mavericks – Haywood game-time decision
Minnesota Timberwolves – Wayne Ellington, Nathan Jawai doubtful.
San Antonio Spurs – Tony Parker will not need surgery, but will be out 6 weeks.

BOLDIN’S VALUE TO THE RAVENS

The Ravens made the AFC Championship Game in 2008 and won one playoff game in 2009 without a true #1 Wide Receiver.  WR Derrick Mason is a solid WR, but at 36 years old, the 5’10” Mason is not in Boldin’s class.  While Mason deserves credit for having 73 catches, 1028 yards and 7 TDs in 2009, one could argue that this shows just how good Ray Rice and Joe Flacco can be.  They are good enough to help Mason nearly make the Pro Bowl despite his obvious limitations.

To evaluate Anquan Boldin’s value we went back to the 2009 Season and “re-simulated” the entire season.  The Ravens were 9-7 in 2009, but in our re-simulation they averaged 9.9 wins, made the playoffs nearly 70% of the time and won the AFC North a shade over 40% of the time.  When we added Anquan Boldin to the team and assumed Mason (a free agent) would become the #2, and the newly acquired Donte’ Stallworth #3 WRs we found that the Ravens’ chances of making the playoffs increased to over 76%.

If Boldin stays healthy he improves the Ravens chances of making the playoffs by over +6 percentage points.  On a per game basis he helps the Ravens average 1.4 more points and provides a +3.1 percentage point impact per game.  Just how valuable is +3.1%?  It translates to around a +2 point difference in average margin of victory.  It takes the Ravens from being a slight underdog to teams like the Colts at home, to being a slight favorite vs the Colts at home.  In other words, it could be exactly what the team needs to get over the hump in the AFC and make it to the 2011 Super Bowl.

BEARS IMPROVE WITH PEPPERS AND TAYLOR, BUT IS IT WORTH THE $$?

Julius Peppers has had a good career and with the exception of 2007, he has consistently delivered 10 to 12 sacks a year.  However, he is not a dominant pass rusher that elevates the defense into elite status when you look at Carolina’s sub-par defensive stats in 2009 (allowed 4.4 ypc, just 31 team sacks, allowed 62% completion percentage).   Chester Taylor is a solid runner and receiver at RB and he was more productive per touch than the disappointing Matt Forte.  He should help the Bears, who averaged just 4.0 ypc as a team, improve offensively. 

The Bears should improve by adding these two players, but it is highly debatable whether the Bears spent their money wisely.  AccuScore re-simulated the 2009 Season.  The Bears only won 7 games, but in these re-simulations they averaged 8.2 wins with the addition of Peppers and Taylor.  Without Peppers and Taylor they averaged just 7.6 wins.  These additions improved their playoff chances by +7.8 percentage points.    

This is a significant improvement, but is it worth the money?

Taylor is 31 and while he may be more productive that Matt Forte we’re not sure he was worth a guaranteed $7 Million.  The addition of Peppers and a healthy return of Brian Urlacher could make an average Bears defense a Top 10 unit in 2010, but at a guaranteed $42 Million, was it really worth it?  Washington acquired a dominant defensive player in Albert Haynesworth last year and did not have a good season.  There are some talented pass rushers in the 2010 draft.  I’m not a GM, but it seems like the Bears could have figured out a way to acquire a first round pick that would have secured a highly rated pass rusher for a fraction of the $42 million guaranteed.

The Ravens had a weakness in 2009 and that was a lack of a true #1 WR.  They got Anquan Boldin for a 3rd and 4th round pick and a fair $28 Million over 4 years.  The Ravens saw their playoff chances improve by nearly as much as the Bears did but the Bears spent 4 times as much money on Taylor and Peppers.  The Bears had a disappointing 2009 because they lacked a true #1 WR and Jay Cutler threw way to many horrifically timed interceptions.  Unlike Baltimore, who tackled their Achilles’ Heel head-on the addition of Taylor and Peppers did not directly address Chicago’s weaknesses. 

Perhaps Bears management assumed that Cutler will ‘automatically’ throw fewer interceptions in 2010 and WR Devin Aromashodu is capable of being a #1 WR.  So they looked to improve their running game and pass rush.  These are fair assumptions, but not ones that I would bet the farm on.

Toronto Raptors – Hedo Turkoglu a game-time decision
Charlotte Bobcats – Tyson Chandler is listed as a game-time decision.  I would assume he’s doubtful until he actually plays, and day-to-day even after that.  Nazr Mohammed also listed as a game-time decision, but did practice yesterday.
New Orleans Hornets – Sean Marks out 10 days
Cleveland Cavaliers – Daniel Gibson out (birth of his son). Delonte West active and expected to play.
Detroit Pistons - Ben Wallace out likely through at least Sunday
Dallas Mavericks - Jason Kidd returns to the lineup after a game off.
New Jersey Nets - Courtney Lee doubtful
Los Angeles Clippers - Craig Smith expected to return (biceps)
Denver Nuggets - Ty Lawson reportedly still in considerable pain due to a shoulder injury. I would expect him to miss at least a week.
Boston Celtics - Michael Finley will debut on Sunday

Jason Terry is reportedly out 7-10 weeks after suffering an orbital fracture Wednesday night. The Dallas guard took an inadvertent elbow to the face from Corey Brewer, and will leave a hole for his team in the backcourt.

The Mavericks had just acquired Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from Washington, and hadn’t yet gelled as a unit.  Now they likely won’t get that chance with this recent injury. That is disappointing as the Mavs were projected to improve significantly with a full lineup with a forecast to win more than 70% of their remaining games.  For reference, only the Lakers and Cavs had played better than .700 ball this season.

A 7 week timetable would put Terry out until the end of the regular season, a span of 20 games.  If the injury keeps him more along the lines of 10 weeks, it would extend into the playoffs giving the Mavs even more reason to worry.

Without Terry, Dallas is still in good shape. AccuScore still projects the Mavs to finish 2nd in the West ahead of Denver and Utah despite the loss of Terry. The Mavericks are projected to win 12.7 games over their final 20 contests compared 14.1 with a healthy Terry. The big blow here is the fact that with Terry combined with the acquisitions of Butler and Haywood, Dallas had the potential to be an elite team. Now it might be merely good, which could be the difference between a potential Finals appearance and a 2nd round exit. With Terry out, Dallas will now be much more reliant on J.J. Barea and Rodrique Beaubois. Butler will also likely spend ample time in the backcourt. As with any injury, there is always the chance that role players like Barea will be exposed with increased playing time.

On a per game basis, Dallas is now 7% more likely to lose from now to the end of the season. This is significant because of the relatively easy schedule Dallas has over the next three weeks. If Terry can beat this projected timetable, it would do the team a great deal of good.  Starting March 25, the Mavericks have dates with Portland twice, Orlando, Denver, Memphis, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City.  If Terry were to miss only 10 games, the impact of his loss would decrease to -4.5% a night.

The calendar has flipped to March, which means one of the greatest sporting events known to man:  the NCAA tournament.  This has been a strange season of sorts with several traditional powers (UNC, UCLA, UCONN) falling on hard times.  Other familiar names are still competing for number 1 seeds (Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Purdue), but this has still been a topsy-turvy season.  Every ranked team has lost at least twice this season while teams like Ohio State and Michigan State have lost 7 times, and yet are ranked in the top 11.

Poll rankings and records though mean nothing when trying to pick winners or against the spread.  AccuScore has a list of 9 teams to pay attention to.  These schools aren’t necessarily the best teams in the country, but instead are projected threats to go deep into the tournament (favored to win their first round game).  Teams like Syracuse and Villanova are true threats to reach the Final Four.  Teams like BYU and New Mexico aren’t from the traditional power conferences, but are very good and would be threats given the right draw.

AccuScore’s point spread picks in games involving these 9 teams have generated at least +200 units of profit (110 risked per bet).  If these teams make a long run in the tournament as expected then our members should be able to benefit financially.  Remember, we are not recommending betting on each of these teams.  We are saying our picks in games involving these teams have been very strong this season.

Like the above list for point spread picks, we have a list of 9 teams to watch for successful Over/Under picks.  We highlighted these teams because AccuScore has generated at least +300 units of profit (110 units risked per bet) when making Over/Under bets when these teams played.  Again, each of these teams are currently favored to win in a projected first round match-up providing more opportunity for profit.

Maryland and New Mexico are the only teams to appear on both lists.  If either the Terps or the Lobos make a deep run in the tourney, it would be an excellent chance to make multiple picks with strong AccuScore records.