NBA Injuries Affecting Simulations Tonight

ORL - Marcin Gortat doubtful with the flu
ORL - Rashard Lewis will make his return from suspension
DAL - Eric Dampier doubtful with the flu
CHA - will be without Raja Bell and Vlad Radmanovic. Both are headed to Golden State as part of the trade for Stephen Jackson.
NO - Chris Paul's sprained ankle could keep him out 3-4 weeks according to Yahoo! Sports

Why is it so difficult to go undefeated in college football?  Just take a look at No. 4 and unbeaten Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 8-0, and only have four more games standing in their way from a likely BCS title shot.  Three of those four are at home, and are very winnable: Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota sans Eric Decker.  The one true test is on the road at Ohio State, difficult but not nearly as intimidating or impossible as in years past.

But now, as often happens late in a football season, the injuries are piling up.  Leading rusher Adam Robinson suffered an ankle injury against Michigan State, and will now miss the rest of the regular season.  Robinson, just a redshirt-freshman himself, will be replaced by true freshman Brandon Wegher.  This is after already losing presumptive starter Jewel Hampton before the season even started.  In another blow to the running game, starting guard Dace Richardson is also out for the regular season after breaking a bone in his leg.

Iowa is 8th in the human polls, but ranks 4th in the BCS behind the strength of top billing by the computers.  The real live people doubt the team because they needed a miracle (blocked field goals on consecutive plays) to beat Northern Iowa by one point at home, and just squeaked by Arkansas St. by three also at home.  Then the Hawkeyes need a literal last second touchdown to beat Michigan State last week. 

Looking at all this as a college football fan you have to understand that luck plays a huge role in winning football games, and it’s also why the deck is stacked against you going unbeaten.  Iowa is  a good football team, and it’s luck could very well continue.  But I would bet on them losing at least one of their next four games particularly because the injury bug has started to creep up on them.

Zach already weighed in a bit about this, but I thought I'd expand.  The real reason why head-to-head competition doesn’t matter in college football:

Miami 38 –  FSU 34
FSU 54 – BYU 28
Miami     #17
BYU    #20
FSU    Unranked (0 votes)

Washington 16 – USC 13
Stanford 34 – Washington 14
USC        #7
Stanford    #35
Washington    Unranked

South Carolina 16 – Ole Miss 10
Ole Miss    #21
S. Carolina    Unranked

The rankings were a popular talking point over the weekend by the biggest names in the college football media.  Sunday (aside from NFL talk) my Twitter stream was filled with questions about the polls using head to head results, relative scores, and the Week 4 AP and Coach’s Polls.

So if head-to-head is the end all, be all then shouldn't FSU be in the rankings ahead of BYU? And didn't FSU push Miami to the brink? So where is FSU in the rankings? You say they lost last week, and BYU won?  But FSU blew BYU off their own field by 16.  And by the transitive property doesn't that make Stanford definitively better than USC?

Acting shocked at these results is naïve, and disingenuous.  First off, many of those writers hold votes in the AP.  I wouldn’t expect them to be beholden to head-to-head competition in every poll because it is flat out impossible.  What happens if a team loses just because it was a bad day?  Do people really think USC is worse than Washington?  Should I believe that because Stanford trounced the Huskies I should expect the Cardinal to beat up on the Trojans?  Nobody thinks like that.  Pretending otherwise is pointless.

Robinson who?  Tejeda.  Robinson Tejeda.  The quick facts: a 6-foot-3 righty that up until September was a middling reliever for the Royals.  As a reliever this year Tejeda had thrown 42.0 innings with a 4.07 ERA with 55 strikeouts and 40 walks.  Not exactly the stuff that makes fantasy stars.

Since moving into the rotation Sept. 4 however, Tejeda has been incredible.  He’s made four starts going 3-0 for the Royals, and is making a huge case for a permanent rotation spot in 2010.  His line this month: 22.1 innings pitched, 0.81 ERA, 24 strikeouts, 10 walks, 0 home runs allowed.  His frame suggests that he can handle a starter’s workload (his listed weight is 248) and he will only be 28 in 2010.

Of course, Tejeda doesn’t have a great track record up to this point.  He was spotty in parts of four previous seasons spent with the Phillies, Rangers, and Royals bouncing between the minors and the bigs.  His biggest weakness is walking batters (5.11 BB/9 career), reminiscent of another hard-throwing righty Daniel Cabrera.  Even that has improved a bit in a starting role, and he is striking out a ton of batters to make up for it.  His 11.05 K/9 is third best in the AL among pitchers with at least 50 innings.  Tejeda will probably never be a front-line starter because of the control issues, but he is definitely a name to remember, and could be a very good fantasy sleeper. 

According to a Yahoo! Sports report, the NBA has decided to lock out its referees. 

Why does this matter to AccuScore users?  Because no matter what you think of the quality of basketball referees, they are the best in the world.  Basketball is an extraordinarily difficult sport to officiate.  Watch a Euroleague game sometime or any big international competition and you wouldn't believe what does and doesn't get called.  Better yet, just go down to your local rec league or turn on a college ball game.  The level of officiating is not up to par.  

Replacement refs will now be used for the NBA season (at least to start, until a deal is reached).  That means simulations will be much more volatile because there is no way to predict poor officiating.  In games where every point matters for who wins or loses, or who covers one bad or missed call could swing the result and yet there will be no possible way to predict that variance.  Let's all hope for a quick return for the real referees.