AccuScore provides industry leading sports simulations, game forecasts, betting predictions, and fantasy tools for the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF and NCAAB.

Tampa Bay held on Thursday night to even the series at one.  Philadelphia though continues to inch closer in simulations despite the loss.  Bad weather looms for Game 3 however which could have a profound effect on the outcome of the series.

Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

Twitter @thejonlee

With the series shifting to Philadelphia tied at 1-1, the Rays have a 56 percent chance of winning the World Series.  That number is down from 68 percent at the start of the series, a sizable change of 12 percent.

The Phillies are now actually favored to win Game 3 in 52 percent of simulations in the match-up between Jamie Moyer and Matt Garza.  Before the series began, Tampa was favored to win the third game in 56 percent of the time.  The biggest change has been the Rays’ hitting which has been held down by strong pitching by the Phillies.  The Rays hit 16 home runs and 28 extra-base hits in the ALCS, but have just one home run (a solo shot by Carl Crawford) and two extra-base hits in two games so far.  Their 3-4-5 hitters (Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, and Crawford) have gone a combined 1-for-23 with 3 RBI.  That trio needs to hit or else Philadelphia will continue to gain an edge.

One pressing issue is that of Tampa’s bullpen.  James Shields was able to pitch his way out of trouble through 5.2 innings of shutout ball.  Dan Wheeler pitched a scoreless inning, followed by rookie David Price who finished the final 2.1 innings allowing 2 runs, but only 1 earned.  Wheeler had been the de facto closer after the injury and ineffectiveness of Troy Percival late in the season, but he clearly is not in that role now.  Grant Balfour would have been the next logical player to fill the 9^th inning void, but he appears to have lost some confidence after the Boston series.  The team’s faith in him also appears shaken or else he probably would have appeared Thursday night.  Joe Maddon likely will continue to use a mix-and-match approach to the late innings without using a traditional closer.  The off-day will allow Price to recover enough to pitch again if called upon.

Game 3 will be the first World Series game in Philadelphia in 15 years.  The biggest question however is the looming threat of rain that could cause a postponement.  The last time a rainout happened in the Fall Classic was Game 4 in 2006 between the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals.  If the game has to be made up, it would be pushed back to the off-day between Games 5 and 6 which would mean the final five games would be played on consecutive days. 

The delay would also bring into question whether or not Charlie Manuel would elect to use Cole Hamels in Game 3, and then bring him back for Game 7 on short rest.  That is not likely to happen given Manuel’s refusal to pitch Hamels without a full four off-days, but it would become a possibility.