NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2018 - South Region

Written by AccuScore Staff
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2018 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: South Region

In AccuScore's eyes, the South region features the two most likely winners of the national championship in no. 1 overall seed Virginia and no. 2 seed Cincinnati. Virginia is a 92% favorite to reach the 2nd round and projects to put down Creighton with 86% likelihood, which is pretty dominant. Then, a probable matchup against Kentucky, assuming Davidson or Arizona don't upset Kentucky, allows Virginia safe passage to the Elite 8. Meanwhile, Cincy expects to make quick work of Georgia State and Nevada before beating Tennessee 57% to 43% in simulations. In the Elite 8, it's a coinflip matchup with Virginia winning 48% of simulations and Cincinnati winning 52% of head-to-head matchups to win the South and advance.

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This is a bit off, of course, because in terms of raw probabilities, Virginia is AccuScore's most likely national champion with 10.84% probability to win it all. Unfortunately for Virginia, Cincinnati is the second most-likely team to lead into "One Shining Moment" with a 10.55% chance of winning it all. So, ultimately, AccuScore says the champion will most likely come out of the South. Part of why Virginia has a slightly higher probability than Cincy to win it all is that Virginia is favored more heavily in the first couple rounds. As such, Virginia's odds of making the Elite 8 are 53.25% versus Cincy's odds of making the Elite 8 at 47.58%. From that point forward, Cincy is the stronger team and gains ground on Virginia until the odds of winning the tournament for the two teams are separated by about 0.3%.

Be sure to check out all of AccuScore's Region-by-Region Bracketology Previews:
West Region
MidWest Region
East Region

South Region: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2017

Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: South Region

Odds to Win South Region

North Carolina 5/4
Kentucky 11/4
UCLA 5/1
Butler 10/1
Wichita State 10/1
Cincinnati 14/1
Dayton 28/1
Minnesota U 28/1
Middle Tennessee St 40/1
Arkansas 50/1
Seton Hall 50/1
Wake Forest 75/1
Kansas State 100/1
Kent State 200/1
Northern Kentucky 200/1
Texas Southern 200/1
Winthrop 200/1

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Deserving of the Nod?

Not everyone agrees on UNC getting the No. 1 seed, having lost to Duke two-of-three times this season. With 11 top-50 wins this season tho, it was tough for voters to shy away.

If you don't agree with AccuScore's upset pick of Middle Tenn. over UNC in the Elite 8, the Tar Heels just might deserve a lot more Final Four-related discussion than the sim data suggests.

Upset Alert, or Not

When the bracket was set, there was some notable action on No. 13 Winthrop taking it over No. 4 Butler. It's the highest the Bulldogs have ever been seeded and the public seems to disagree. AccuScore sim data, however, would go with the seeded-favorite in this first-round matchup.

Players to Watch

With UCLA in the field, we already know Lonzo Ball will garner more than enough attention. At 6'6", the freshman guard has made a name for himself and will look to catapult that legacy to the pro level with his play in the tourney.

Beyond the hype, though, most hoops fans know not to overlook Kentucky's Malik Monk in this region. Averaging nearly 21 points per game, watch for Monk to try and lead his No. 2-seeded UK squad to the Final Four.

Value Pick & Final Word

If you're scowering the bracket looking for value picks -- either to reach the Final Four or win the tourney -- look no further than the South region.

At 40:1 odds, Middle Tennessee provides some hidden value -- a lot for a little. What's hidden though is the fact that while it has a 40:1 chance to win the region, it -- by far -- has the best odds for a No. 12 seed to win the tourney at 250:1. Nevada and Princeton are at 500:1, while NC Wilmington is at 1000:1.

AccuScore data has Middle Tennessee reaching the Elite 8 for a matchup against the UCLA Bruins.

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West Region: NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2017

Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracketology: West Region

Let's just say the West region will garner some extra attention -- and wagering opportunities -- with No. 1 Gonzaga atop the standings. Having net made the Final Four, the Bulldogs are already being picked as an upset-victim by the third round.

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What does AccuScore data have to say? Let's take a close look at the West region.

Just how Good is Gonzaga?

Look, you don't win 29 straight games without being that good. They had some big wins over the likes of Florida, Iowa St., and Arizona. And even further, they beat a good Saint Mary's team three times.

Make sure to take a deeper look at AccuScore's bracketcaster. Both Gonzaga and St. Mary's have something to say in the sims when it comes to which team represents the West region in the Final Four. Value-pick alert!

What to Watch

If there's one first round matchup you watch, make it the 8-9 seed game with Northwestern and Vanderbilt. Vandy has depth of shooters at every position - keep an eye on the three-point attempts.

Causing Trouble

While offense tends to get the highlights, it's a team's defensive consistency that often determines their tourney run. No. 4 West Virginia was No. 1 in the nation in forcing turnovers in the regular season, boasting an average turnover margin of +8.2 TOs.

West Region Odds to Win

Gonzaga 8/5
Arizona 2/1
West Virginia 11/2
Florida State 8/1
St. Mary's CA 10/1
Notre Dame 14/1
Maryland 22/1
Northwestern 50/1
Vanderbilt 50/1
VCU 50/1
Xavier 50/1
Florida Gulf Coast 100/1
Princeton 125/1
Bucknell 150/1
North Dakota 200/1
South Dakota State 200/1

Value Pick

AccuScore sim data would suggest a wager on Saint Mary's. There's a good chance they reach the Elite 8 - why not take them to win the region?

In terms of No. 6 seeds, SMU has the best odds to win the tourney at 40:1. Cincinnati and Maryland are at 100:1, while Creighton is at 150:1. What that means is that SMU has a much better chance -- relatively to other teams at their seed -- to reach the Final Four.

Final Word

It's no South region, but Gonzaga does have a fairly tough path to the Final Four. Their biggest hurdle -- somewhat early on -- should come against West Virginia. At least that's what most would have you think.

AccuScore data does have Notre Dame showing the kind of production to put up a fight against both WVU and Gonzaga, but it's the Bulldogs that reach the FInal Four at the end.

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South Region
Midwest Region