• Dodgers vs Angels - Analyst Preview

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Dodgers vs Angels: Analyst Preview

    Only eight games on the MLB slate for a Monday? Usually there’s more action to pick from, but there’s some quality action in the evening games as the interleague showdown between the Angels and Dodgers takes center stage at Chavez Ravine. The Angels are 38-28 against the Dodgers since 2005, entering this year's Freeway Series after winning the 2016 affair 3-1.

    Left-hander Rich Hill and right-hander Ricky Nolasco are set to face off with the Dodgers entering the matchup having won 10 straight games.

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    Odds vs Sim Data

    Just given how the Dodgers are playing of late, it's no surprise they're heavy run-and-a-half favorites at home, listed at -215 on the money line.

    Vegas odds suggest the Dodgers have over a 68 percent change of winning Monday night; AccuScore simulation data seems to agree with that notion with the home side winning about 63-to-64 percent of matchups.

    The Dodgers -- despite the lack of overall value -- are a four-star hot trend pick on the money line.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Angels are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games overall.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Angels’ last seven games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dodgers’ last 16 games.
    • The Dodgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.

    Dodgers vs Angels

    Starting Pitchers

    Hill has recorded 40 innings pitched heading into Monday’s matchup, logging a 4.73 ERA with four wins in seven games. He got the win his last time out allowing just one run over five innings against the New York Mets. Historically, he has a 6.23 ERA in six career appearances against the Angels.

    Nolasco, on the other hand, hasn't had a whole lot of success this year, recording just 2 wins in 11 games with a 5.23 ERA. The Angels have lost the last 10 games in which Nolasco got the start; he enters Monday's matchup giving up the most HRs in the American League. Nolasco has given up 23 home runs in 84 1/3 innings.

  • MLB Opening Day: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history. 

     
    Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins
     
    Let's be honest -- it always comes down to the pitching matchups. The first game we'll look at is the Miami Marlins hosting the Chicago Cubs, with Jon Lester and Jose Urena up for their respective squads. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Marlins' Main Man: Jose Urena had a strong campaign last year, finishing with a 3.82 ERA and a 14-7 record. He's now entering his fourth year in the majors, and what will be important to keep an eye on is his opposing batting average. He was at .238 last year, the best of his career, and among the lowest in the league. 
     
    Urena is projected to finish with 5 innings pitched Thursday, giving up 3.0 earned runs and about 6 hits; he averages five-to-six strikeouts per simulated matchup. 
     
    It's important to keep in mind the Miami rotation last season recorded a 4.82 ERA and had just 34 saves in 61 opportunities. That 4.82 ERA was No. 26 of 30 in the major. 
     
    Chicago's Bats: Last season, the Cubs' batting lineup recorded a .255 average.
     
    Albert Almora and Kris Bryant lead the way in sims for Chicago, with Almora averaging 1.6 hits per sim with 4.5 at bats per sim, and Bryant with 1.4 hits per sim with 4.2 at bats per sim. Bryant does have a higher probability of hitting a homerun, averaging 0.22 HRs per sim compared to Almora's 0.14. The Cubs average 5.3 runs score per sim, compared to 4.9 for the Marlins. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Cubs are 1-4 straight up (SU) in their last five games going back to last year.
    • The Cubs are 7-3 SU in its last 10 games vs the Marlins.
    • The Cubs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against the Marlins.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    Miami.
     
    Vegas opened this matchup with the Cubs as money line favorites (-192) and the total set at 8. The Marlins are getting +180 on the money line, indicating about a 35.7 chance of winning for Miami. They, however, win over 46 percent of simulated matchups, providing a ton of value on them in most books.
     
    The Cubs are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 8 games on the road vs the Marlins. 
  • MLB Opening Day: San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history.
     
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    Clayton Kershaw against divisional rivals on opening day? Sign us up. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Dodgers' Leadoff Man and Center Fielder: Chris Taylor will become an all-too-familiar name for Dodgers fans as he is projected to lead off for the home side on opening day. He actually opened 2017 in the minors before a breakout season and is locked in at leadoff -- largely becuse of his power and athleticism. 
     
    Taylor averages about 4 at bats per sim, 1.4 hits per sim, and 0.8 runs per sim; he has the second-lowest probability of hitting a homerun amongst the top seven batters in the Dodgers lineup. 
     
    Injuries: Dodgers' Justin Turner is currently on the disabled list and is expected to be out for 1-to-2 months with a broken wrist. 
     
    Projected Leaders: Andrew McCutchen, batting at the No. 3 spot for SF, has the highest probability of hitting a HR for his side. He averages 0.15 HRs per sim, averaging 0.5 RBIs per sim. For the Dodgers, it's Cody Bellinger. He averages 0.30 HRs per sim, and 0.7 RBIs per sim. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Giants are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Giants' last 15 games going back to last season.
    • San Francisco is 2-6 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last 6 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The Giants are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five games vs the Dodgers going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last five games vs the Dodgers.
    • The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Dodgers.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    The UNDER.
     
    We've got Kershaw on the mound, plus the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Giants' last 5 games on the road vs the Dodgers.
  • Yankees vs Rays: MLB Analysis

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

    We've got a fun one on deck Thursday as Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. New York's a slight home favorite to win the matchup (-105) with the total at 8.5.

    Pitching Matchup

    Archer's been fairly pedestrian this season, entering Thursday's matchup with an ERA of 3.77 and a 7-6 record. Good news for the Rays, though, is the fact that their bullpen is in the top third of the league with an overall ERA of 4.1. They've given up their fair share of bombs -- ranking No. 19 with 118 home runs -- to go along with an average of 8.4 hits per nine innings.

    Sabathia, with his 9-3 record and an ERA of 3.44, continues to shine when given the chance. He is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Fun fact - Sabathia has allowed one run in 10 innings against the Rays this season. Teams are hitting just .208 against the Yankees bullpen. New York's bullpen is even better than Tampa Bay's, ranking No. 6 in the league in team ERA at 3.86.

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    Comparing the Numbers

    Tampa Bay is 24-26 on the road, with 26 of the 50 games going OVER the total, 22 staying UNDER, and two pushes. The Rays -- on average -- score 4.6 runs per game and give up 4.1.

    New York is 27-17 at home this season, with 25 of the 44 games going OVER, 18 staying UNDER, and one push. The Yankees are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game while giving up 3.9.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore

    While Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites, AccuScore data ups that winning probability up to 61 percent. AccuScore sim data would have actually listed New York at a -155 on the money line, making the -105 they opened at fairly attractive.

    At the time of publication, New York is hovering between -115 and -120 on the money line in most books in Vegas.