• Baseball's Betting Strategy: Top Trends - May 2017

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Top MLB Trends: May 2017

    Understanding how to read the MLB Archives is the most important skill when it comes to strategizing for a sport like baseball that has so many games, possibly too many games. As we approach the end of May and head into the dog days of summer, AccuScore took a moment to analyze what is working with regards to moneyline and side value picks.

    Side Value Trend: 122-127, 49% + 1,533 on picks when the home team is between 45% and 55% to win.

    What does this trend mean? Simple: When it comes to close games, AccuScore’s Side Value picks tend to perform and turn a profit. Similarly, AccuScore’s best moneyline trend falls in a similar category:
    Moneyline Picks: 136-113, 54.6% +1,177 where the home team is between 45% and 55% to win.

    Again, when it comes to close games, AccuScore tends to get it right and turn a profit. In fact, AccuScore’s most profitable range is -109 to +109. On the moneyline, AccuScore is 77-62, 55% + 1175 in games where the home team has odds of -109 to +109. Likewise, AccuScore is 77-63, 55% +991 on side value when the home team has odds of -109 to +109.

    Tonight's MLB Picks: There are a couple games on tonight's schedule that fall into the aforementioned category, which means these trends can apply tonight: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

    Baseball Hot Trends - May 2017
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    More May Baseball Hot Trends

    Top Team Trend: Side Value
    New York Yankees: 10-1, 90.9% + 1002 on all side value picks when NYY is a Vegas road underdog

    Top Team Trend: Moneyline
    Baltimore Orioles: 15-2, 88.2% +1117 on all moneyline picks when Vegas lists the Orioles as a road underdog.

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  • MLB Opening Day: Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history. 

     
    Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins
     
    Let's be honest -- it always comes down to the pitching matchups. The first game we'll look at is the Miami Marlins hosting the Chicago Cubs, with Jon Lester and Jose Urena up for their respective squads. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Marlins' Main Man: Jose Urena had a strong campaign last year, finishing with a 3.82 ERA and a 14-7 record. He's now entering his fourth year in the majors, and what will be important to keep an eye on is his opposing batting average. He was at .238 last year, the best of his career, and among the lowest in the league. 
     
    Urena is projected to finish with 5 innings pitched Thursday, giving up 3.0 earned runs and about 6 hits; he averages five-to-six strikeouts per simulated matchup. 
     
    It's important to keep in mind the Miami rotation last season recorded a 4.82 ERA and had just 34 saves in 61 opportunities. That 4.82 ERA was No. 26 of 30 in the major. 
     
    Chicago's Bats: Last season, the Cubs' batting lineup recorded a .255 average.
     
    Albert Almora and Kris Bryant lead the way in sims for Chicago, with Almora averaging 1.6 hits per sim with 4.5 at bats per sim, and Bryant with 1.4 hits per sim with 4.2 at bats per sim. Bryant does have a higher probability of hitting a homerun, averaging 0.22 HRs per sim compared to Almora's 0.14. The Cubs average 5.3 runs score per sim, compared to 4.9 for the Marlins. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Cubs are 1-4 straight up (SU) in their last five games going back to last year.
    • The Cubs are 7-3 SU in its last 10 games vs the Marlins.
    • The Cubs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against the Marlins.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    Miami.
     
    Vegas opened this matchup with the Cubs as money line favorites (-192) and the total set at 8. The Marlins are getting +180 on the money line, indicating about a 35.7 chance of winning for Miami. They, however, win over 46 percent of simulated matchups, providing a ton of value on them in most books.
     
    The Cubs are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 8 games on the road vs the Marlins. 
  • MLB Opening Day: San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history.
     
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    Clayton Kershaw against divisional rivals on opening day? Sign us up. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Dodgers' Leadoff Man and Center Fielder: Chris Taylor will become an all-too-familiar name for Dodgers fans as he is projected to lead off for the home side on opening day. He actually opened 2017 in the minors before a breakout season and is locked in at leadoff -- largely becuse of his power and athleticism. 
     
    Taylor averages about 4 at bats per sim, 1.4 hits per sim, and 0.8 runs per sim; he has the second-lowest probability of hitting a homerun amongst the top seven batters in the Dodgers lineup. 
     
    Injuries: Dodgers' Justin Turner is currently on the disabled list and is expected to be out for 1-to-2 months with a broken wrist. 
     
    Projected Leaders: Andrew McCutchen, batting at the No. 3 spot for SF, has the highest probability of hitting a HR for his side. He averages 0.15 HRs per sim, averaging 0.5 RBIs per sim. For the Dodgers, it's Cody Bellinger. He averages 0.30 HRs per sim, and 0.7 RBIs per sim. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Giants are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Giants' last 15 games going back to last season.
    • San Francisco is 2-6 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last 6 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The Giants are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five games vs the Dodgers going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last five games vs the Dodgers.
    • The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Dodgers.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    The UNDER.
     
    We've got Kershaw on the mound, plus the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Giants' last 5 games on the road vs the Dodgers.