• Dodgers vs Giants: Analyst Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Dodgers vs Giants: Sunday Analyst Pick

    Dodgers vs Angels

    The San Francisco Giants are already looking ahead to next season, already 25 games below .500 and in no position to make matters better in 2017. So for now, they'll look to get their satisfaction by trying to slow down the rival Los Angeles Dodgers who are now 33.5 games ahead of the Giants in the standings.

    Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.38 ERA) for SF; Ryu Hyun-Jin (3-6, 4.17 ERA) for the Dodgers.

    Let's take a look at there there might be some value in this contest.

    All of Tonight's MLB Picks: Click Here for All of Sunday's Baseball Picks

    Preview

    Burgarner gets the start in place of right hander Matt Cain, and it'll take one of his legendary performances to get the win Sunday. The Giants were limited to just four hits and 1 run on Saturday, with their bullpen being practically non-existant - pitching just 2 2/3 innings so far in the series.

    For the Dodgers, all eyes will be on Ryu and whether or not he can manage the game well enough to allow the L.A. offense to take over. In his only start against the Giants this year, he allowed 1 run over 6 innings in 1-2 loss.

    The Dodgers are heavily favored on the money line (-265) and rightfully so. The Dodgers win close to 67 percent of simulations, a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Sims

    Is the -265 worth the odds on the money line? While the Giants are expected to keep the game close, a look at the probabilities confirms the confidence AccuSore data has in the home side.

    A -265 on the money line indicates about a 72-to-73 percent chance of winning. AccuScore data -- completely separate from Vegas odds -- has that winning probability around 67 percent. As such, AccuScore would have listed the Dodgers' ML odds at about -205, making the -265 not very attractive.

    Betting Trends vs AccuScore Hot Trends
    • SF is 1-6 in its last seven vs the NL West.
    • Dodgers are 44-12 in their last 56 home games.
    • The OVER is 7-2-2 in SF's last 11 Sunday games.
    • The OVER is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last five home games.

    Here we're specifically focused on the total. Recent trends as you can see suggest taking the OVER. The Dodgers get runs on the board at home -- clearly -- and Ryu on the mound indicates the Giants' bats might get going. Ryu has averaged just 5.1 innings pitched in the last month, struggling to go deep in his starts.

    Whereas Vegas has their total set at 9, AccuScore data actually has it at 8, indicating a pick on the UNDER. The total combined score stays below 9 in over 53 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The majority of Ryu's games this season have finished below the total.

    Analyst's Pick
    Dodgers get the sweep, and the UNDER.

  • MLB Opening Day: San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

    The 2018 Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season officially kicks off this week on March 29. With all 30 MLB teams in action Thursday, let's take a closer look at two games and where the value's at. This year's opening day will be the earliest start to the season in league history.
     
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers
     
    Clayton Kershaw against divisional rivals on opening day? Sign us up. 
     
    What to Watch For
     
    Dodgers' Leadoff Man and Center Fielder: Chris Taylor will become an all-too-familiar name for Dodgers fans as he is projected to lead off for the home side on opening day. He actually opened 2017 in the minors before a breakout season and is locked in at leadoff -- largely becuse of his power and athleticism. 
     
    Taylor averages about 4 at bats per sim, 1.4 hits per sim, and 0.8 runs per sim; he has the second-lowest probability of hitting a homerun amongst the top seven batters in the Dodgers lineup. 
     
    Injuries: Dodgers' Justin Turner is currently on the disabled list and is expected to be out for 1-to-2 months with a broken wrist. 
     
    Projected Leaders: Andrew McCutchen, batting at the No. 3 spot for SF, has the highest probability of hitting a HR for his side. He averages 0.15 HRs per sim, averaging 0.5 RBIs per sim. For the Dodgers, it's Cody Bellinger. He averages 0.30 HRs per sim, and 0.7 RBIs per sim. 
     
    Key Betting Trends
    • The Giants are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Giants' last 15 games going back to last season.
    • San Francisco is 2-6 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last 6 games on the road going back to last season.
    • The Giants are 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five games vs the Dodgers going back to last season.
    • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the Giants' last five games vs the Dodgers.
    • The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road vs the Dodgers.
    Analyst's Pick
     
    The UNDER.
     
    We've got Kershaw on the mound, plus the total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Giants' last 5 games on the road vs the Dodgers.