• GUIDE to NFL and College Football Picks

    Understanding AccuScore’s Football Simulations

    Been away for a while? AccuScore may looks a bit different. Take a deep breath. The simulations haven’t changed, but the look has over the years. It's been about a decade since we first start, so we’re going to walk you through how to find your football picks and also how to read the simulations.

    There are two views: The Graph View and the Grid View (better for college football).

    The Graph View

    Side Value and Moneyline

    As this was a pretty big change, it took us a moment to get everything into the graph view, but now we have it. Let’s take a look at an example from NCAA Football below.

    Football Graph View

    In the example above, there is a 4-star moneyline pick and 2-star side value pick. The Moneyline pick is clearly Arkansas, represented by the outside circle. Also, the 88.8% of simulations resulted in Arkansas winning, which written below the team’s symbol. This is the moneyline pick. AccuScore’s simulations are represented by the outside circle.

    Football Graph View-2

    The side value, however, is represented by the inside circle, and as you can see in the image above, the odds only give Louisiana Tech a 5.69% chance of winning versus AccuScore giving Louisiana Tech an 11% chance of winning, so there is side value on picking the underdog here.

    Over/Under and Point Spread Picks

    In the illustration below, you’ll find a green arrow and a red arrow. The green arrow is AccuScore’s Totals pick. In the example below, AccuScore is picking the Over in this game, which is a two-star pick. Below the stars, the “52” represents the line, so AccuScore is saying this game will go OVER 52. The 58.4% shows you what percentage of simulations went OVER 52. If you click on the “free picks” or “more info” box, you can play around with slider tools to adjust the lines if you’re getting a different line.

    Football Graph View-2

    The red arrow shows AccuScore’s pick against the spread. In this game, the pick is LA Tech +25, which is a two-star pick. Again, the 56% represents the percentage of simulations that saw LA Tech losing by 25 or fewer points or winning outright.

    Grid View

    To get to the grid view, take a look at the red arrow above and click on the three lines. The graph symbol allows you to switch back to the graph view. Due to the number of games in College Football, the grid view is now the default view. Also, you can type in team abbreviations in the search box (green arrow) and find any game you’re looking for faster. The graph view is the default view for most other sports, but switching to the grid view is the same process for every sport.

    Understanding the Grid View

    Football Grid View

    Let’s use the same example we’ve been using and the same game that’s listed in the above illustration of the grid view: LATech vs Arkansas

    Let’s go column by column to understand what everything means in the grid view. Acc Sim% simply lists AccuScore’s simulation calculations, which list Arkansas as an 88% favorite. Conversely, Louisiana Tech only won 11% of simulations. That’s easy enough.

    Odds% is AccuScore converting the public odds into a percentage. Before you freak out and think something is wrong, the percentage is over 100% because bookies add a bit of juice to their end. While we removed that juice in the past and converted odds to be out of 100%, leaving the juice in actually allows for a clearer look at true side value because it doesn’t arbitrarily push down Vegas’ odds as a percentage.

    In this case, Vegas oddsmakers are saying there is a 97.22% chance of Arkansas winning and only a 5.69% chance of LATech winning. Looking at it side-by-side with AccuScore’s Sim%, the side value is clearly on LATech.

    The next column is “PS” and “ACC PS.” The top number is the point spread set by bookmakers, which is Arkansas -25. Below it, AccuScore lists the point spread line we believe it should be: Arkansas -21. Since Vegas is overinflating Arkansas, the point spread pick is Louisiana Tech.

    Next, we have the “OU” and “Acc OU” column. Similar to the last column, the first number (52) is the Over/Under line set by Vegas oddsmakers. The number below it is the Over/Under line AccuScore calculated. Since AccuScore’s line is higher than the public odds, the pick is the OVER.

    The final three columns are ML, SV, and Total, and all of them simply list the star-rated picks. As the season continues, we will have more trends and 3 and 4-star picks. Using the arrows, members can sort games by star-ratings and instantly find all games offering 4-star totals picks.

    Note: AccuScore still offers the ability to change lines and change spreads by clicking on the team names in the grid view. Also, you can see written previews for every game, top trends and player projections.

  • GUIDE: College Basketball and NBA Picks

    Understanding AccuScore’s Basketball Picks

    Here's a simple guide to help you understand how to read AccuScore's picks for college basketball and NBA

    First of all, AccuScore offers two views to see picks: The Graph View and the Grid View.
    The Graph View is the default for all NBA picks because there are only a maximum of 15 games per night. The grid view is the default setting for college basketball because it's easier to search games and the sheer volume of college basketball games that can be held on a single day. At any point, you can switch between views using by clicking on the little button at the top of the picks, as displayed by the red arrow in the image below:

    Graph-vs-Grid

    The Grid View Explained

    To help explain the Grid View, let's start left to right in the image below

    Grid View

    First, the date and team names are listed. In order to see the full forecast with player projections, click on the team names.

    Then, we see a title of "Acc Sim%" which is the AccuScore simulation percentage. In this case, 33.6% of simulations had GA Tech Winning, while Boston College won 66.3% of simulations. So, BC is the moneyline pick since it won the majority of simulations.

    Next, we have "Odds%" which is AccuScore taking Vegas odds and converting them to a percentage so that we can determine side value. In this case, GA Tech's odds are at 42.92% which means there is not side value on picking GA Tech because AccuScore thinks those odds should be even lower at 33.6%. Alternatively, BC's odds are 59.84% when AccuScore calculates them to be at 66.3%. There is a little over 6% side value here, so this would be the side value pick.

    Next, we have "PS/ACC PS." Simply, "PS" is the current point spread line: BC -3.0. "Acc PS" is where AccuScore calculates the point spread line to sit, which is BC -5.5 in this case. Since the line should be BC giving up 5.5 point and they're only giving up 3.0 points, the Point Spread pick BC-3.0. Looking a couple columns ahead, that's a 4-star trends pick. The star rating is based solely on historical trends involving teams, conferences, sports and lines. Four stars is the highest trends pick.

    Finally, we have "OU/ACC OU." Similar to point spread, OU refers to Over Under line. In this case, Vegas has set the over/under line at 141.0. Below that, AccuScore's over/under line is 138. Since AccuScore's line is lower than the Vegas line, the pick is the Under. Looking at the column marked "Total," we see this is a 4-star pick.

    Note: The "search" bar at the top right allows this version to be easier to find games. Also, members can search games by star ratings in this view

    The Graph View Explained

    Graph example

    TOTALS: Let's start at the bottom left: "Under" is AccuScore's pick for this game on the Totals. Below that pick is a star rating for the pick: two stars. This star rating is based on historical trends involving the teams, conferences, sports, lines, etc. Below the stars are two numbers: 135.5 and 52.8%. The "135.5" is the Totals line, so AccuScore's pick is UNDER 135.5. The 52.8% is the percentage of AccuScore's simulations that resulted in the Under.

    Point Spread: If we go to the bottom right of the box, we see a section labeled "Point Spread." Again, there is a star, so this a one-star trends pick. Below that, we see "Pitt +17.0" and "57.0%." This means that AccuScore's pick against the spread is Pittsburgh +17.0 and that Pitt either won or lost by fewer than 17 points 57% of the time. Alternatively, if the pick was Notre Dame -17.0, this section would read "ND -17.0"

    Moneyline/Side Value: In this case, Notre Dame is a heavy favorite at 83.9% to win, which can be seen under the school's logo and is also represented by the blue shading on the outside circle. Clearly this is the moneyline pick.

    The inner circle represents the current Vegas odds, and the dark blue area on the inner circle represents Side Value. Side Value is the value based on odds being inflated. In this case, Pittsburgh's odds of winning provide 8% value.

    Adjusting Spreads/Totals

    If you're receiving spreads or totals lines that don't line up with AccuScore's listed spreads and totals lines, you can adjust them! Simply go into the detailed forecast by clicking "view more" in the Graph view and clicking the team names in the Grid view. There, you will be able to adjust lines as shown in the images below:

    Graph example
    Graph example

    Now that you understand the system, check out the picks:

    NBA picks
    College Basketball Picks