Written by Rohit Ghosh
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2018 NFL Playoffs: Eagles vs Falcons - Divisional Round Analyst Pick
Back-to-back weekends with NFL action on a Saturday? We'll take it. We came through last Saturday letting you know Atlanta covering on the road in L.A. against the Rams was a lock. What's next for Atlanta?
Let's take a closer look at this weekend's Falcons' matchup -- again on the road, this time against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Our NFL Expert made two picks for Wildcard Weekend and got both right: Panthers +7 and Falcons +6.5...scroll to the bottom for his Analyst Pick for the Divisional Round...
With no Carson Wentz at QB for the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta Falcons opened as 3-point favorites. The spread hasn't moved from there. The total opened at 44 before dropping quite a bit following some public action.
Betting Line: Atlanta Falcons -3
At the time of publication, 55 percent of the public was laying the points and taking the Falcons.
54 percent of the action on the total has been on the UNDER.
AccuScore Betting Trends: Wild Card Weekend
• Against the Spread: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +790 profit)
• Over/Under Picks: 3-1, 75% +190 (Season: +1800 profit)
...All of AccuScore's NFL 2018 Playoffs Picks: NFL Playoffs Picks (includes free full forecasts for Eagles vs Falcons)
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• Atlanta is 2-5 against the spread [ATS] in its last seven games in the divisional round.
• Philadelphia is 5-1 straight up [SU] in its last six games in the divisional round.
• Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games at home.
• Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games.
• Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
• The OVER is 4-0 in Atlanta's last four divisional playoffs games.
• The OVER is 4-0 in Philadelphia's last four games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.
What to Watch For
Force 'Em to Throw It: The Falcons' defense was solid last weekend against a potent Rams' offense. The Rams' offense thrives when it's able to mix-and-match with its pass-and-run game, but the Falcons forced them to beat them through the air. Rams QB Jared Goff threw the ball 45 times, becoming predictable and allowing the athletic Falcons linebackers to make an impact on the game. If Nick Foles throws the ball 45 times for Philly, an Atlanta win is guaranteed.
Foles is projected to finish with 226 passing yards on 23 completions and 1 TD.
Falcons' Offense: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan was efficient last week against the Rams, finishing with 200-plus yards completing 21-of-30 throws. The Falcons also ran the ball for over 100 yards. Above all, though, WR Julio Jones looked like himself after struggling with injuries in the final weeks of the regular season, catching nine passes for 94 yards against the Rams.
Ryan is projected to finish with 262 passing yards and 2 TDs. He averages more than three times as many TDs as INTs. Jones is projected to finish with 91 yards on 8 receptions; he averages 0.5 TDs per sim, meaning he finds the end-zone in every other simulated matchup.
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