College Football National Championship: Alabama vs Georgia Picks

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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College Football National Championship: Alabama vs Georgia

We've got an SEC showdown in the College Football National Championship Game as Alabama and Georgia get set to kick off Monday night at in Atlanta, Georgia. The two sides come in with similar regular season records, but very different against the spread (ATS) records as 'Bama went just 6-7 ATS while Georgia finished 10-4.

Let's take a closer look at this matchup.

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Vegas Odds
Alabama opened as 4.5-point favorites before settling in about a point lower in most books. The total saw a bit more movement, dropping 2 points since opening at 47.

Betting Line: Alabama -3.5
Total: 45

At the time of publication, 53 percent of the public were laying the points and picking Alabama.

About 53 percent of the public action has been on the OVER.

All of AccuScore's College Football National Championship picks
Our computer has simulated Alabama vs Georgia 10,000 times based on trends, team and player statistics: College Football National Championship Picks

Betting Trends
• Georgia is 5-12 straight up (SU) in its last 17 games as an underdog
• Georgia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Alabama
• Georgia is 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games

What to Watch For

Which 'Bama Defense Shows Up?: Alabama has given up at least 150 yards rushing in three of its last five games. At the same time, we're still talking about one of the best rush defenses in the country. They head into the matchup allowing no more than 3.6 rushing yards per game.

Both Georgia RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are projected to have some big games on the ground, with Chubb averaging 90 yards on 16 carries and Michel with 70 on 12. Both average 0.4 TDs per sim, which indicates -- at least in our sims -- red zone issues for Georgia.

QB Play: Alabama's Jalen Hurts heads into the final game of the season having thrown just one INT. He's reliable and can manage the game remarkably well. On the other side, we've got Jake Fromm, who's top-five in the nation in pass efficiency. Georgia is undefeated this season when he has more than 15 completions.

Hurts is projected to finish with 152 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Fromm is projected to finish with 187 passing yards -- averaging 14 completions per sim.

Analyst's Pick
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Analyst Pick:: 'Bama covers.

Alabama is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games vs SEC opponents.

Iowa vs Michigan State Predictions: Analyst Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NCAA Football Saturday - Iowa vs Mich. St.

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Michigan State's listed as a fairly heavy favorite this weekend as they get set to host Iowa. Vegas has them favored by 3.5 points and listed at -180 on the money line. Our simulation data, though, has a different take on this matchup.

Vegas Odds & AccuScore Sim Data

The -180 money line odds for the Spartans indicate a 64.2 percent chance of winning. They're fairly heavy home favorites. The sim data has Iowa as slight favorites, winning just a shade over 50 percent of the sims. The simulations would have listed the Spartans at about EVEN, suggesting bettors to stay away from the home side.

Iowa, on the other hand, has a lot of value from the sims. They're getting +150 on the money line in most books, indicating a 40 percent chance of winning. They win over 50 percent of sims, though, providing a whole lot of value on that +150.

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Betting Trends
• Iowa is 6-2 straight up (SU) in its last 8 games.
• Iowa is 17-6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 24 games on the road.
• Iowa is 5-1 SU in its last six games on the road.
• Iowa is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games vs Michigan State.
• Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road vs Michigan State.

What to Watch For

The Spartans can really spread the ball around, but also haven't faced a defense like that of Iowa's -- especially in terms of stopping the ground attack. As a result, Michigan St. QB Brian Lewerke will have to firing on all cylinders to avoid the upset.

Lewerke is projected to finish with 241 passing yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, along with 39 rushing yards.

Hawkeyes running back Akrum Wadley should have a big game this weekend, with the way Michigan State struggled to contain the ground attack against Notre Dame. The Spartans' LBs just don't have the talent to match up with Wadley's speed. Watch for him to get plenty of opportunities early.

Wadley is projected to finish with 56 yards on 9 carries, along with 20 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Altogether in sims, he averages 0.8 TDs per matchup.

Oklahoma State vs USA: Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Oklahoma State vs. University of South Alabama

The NCAA Football season marches forward as we head into Week 2 action with No. 10 Oklahoma Sate hitting the road for a matchup with University of South Alabama Friday night. It's a non-conference matchup that marks the very first time these two sides have met. South Alabama heads into this matchup after a 47-27 road loss at Ole Miss last Saturday; Oklahoma State dominated Tulsa 59-24 in their season opener.

All of AccuScore’s latest College Football picks

Oklahoma State is a 26.5-point favorite with the total set at 66.5. The spread opened at 27.5 points with the total at 64.5.

What to Watch For

South Alabama may have lost its season opener on the road, but going back to last season, they are 3-0 straight up and against the spread at home. QB Cole Garvin -- on average -- completes about 61 percent of his throws, finishing week 1 with 1 TD and no INTs. Garvin is projected to finish with 242 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. He averages almost as many INTs per sim (0.9) as he does TDs (1.1).

Oklahoma State's ground game is a monster to compete against, averaging over 330 yards per game. In Week 2, keep an eye on RB Justice Hall who finished Week 1 with 132 yards and 1 TD. He's projected to finish this week's matchup with 101 yards on 16 carries and 1 TD. He averages 1.2 TDs per sim, tied for the highest average among all players in this matchup other than Cowboys WR James Washington.

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Vegas Odds vs AccuSore Simulation Data

Whereas most books in Vegas have Oklahoma State favored by about 28 points -- give or take a half-point to a full point depending on when and where -- AccuScore sims actually have that spread 6 points lower. OK State is favored by 'just' 22 in the simulations, indicating a pick on the Jaguars to cover the 27-to-28-point spread. University of South Alabama covers a 28-point spread in about 59 percent of simulations, a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

The total doesn't have the same three-star hot trend alert assigned to it, but AccuScore sim data does have the total 2.5 points lower than what's listed in Vegas. The combined score stays below the total set in Vegas (66.5) in close to 56 percent of simulations, a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

Top Betting Trend

-The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 7 games on the road.

Analyst's Pick

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It's a Friday night matchup and college football doesn't exactly always go as planned on weeknights. South Alabama has a history of not getting blown out and Week 1 was proof of that -- they held their own against Ole Miss on the road and actually finished the game with more first downs than the opponent. Just seems like way too many points to lay on the road.

The Jags covering, with the UNDER.

Troy at Arkansas State: College Football Preview & Analyst Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Troy at Arkansas State: College Football Saturday Pick

There's plenty of NCAA Football action this Saturday and we've got a play that's going against Vegas odds. Arkansas State hosts the Trojans of Troy Saturday in probably what's the most evenly-matched pairing of the day.

Vegas Odds

Arkansas opened as 1-point favorites before the game settled as a pick 'em in most books; some books, however actually had the line move to the other side with Troy as a half-point to 1-point favorite.

The total opened at 58.5 before settling a bit higher at 59.5/60.

Betting Line: Pick 'Em
Total: 60

At the time of publication, public action on the spread was evenly split 50-50.

76 percent of the action on the total has been on the OVER.

AccuScore has picks for every major Division 1-A game:Saturday's College Football Picks

Betting Trends
- Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
- Troy is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Troy's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State

What to Watch For

Arkansas State's 14th-ranked offense is led by Justice Hansen's 32 TD passes -- an offense that does a remarkable job of spreading the ball around. They've got depth and experience in their receivers, but it just might be TE Blake Mack who shines the brightest. He has caught 40 passes to go along with 7 TDs this season.

Hansen is projected to finish with 257 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT.

Mack averages 0.3 TDs per sim, to go along with 38 yards on 3 receptions.

Troy has run for 1,758 yards as a unit this season, putting them 84th in the nation. They average about 5.1 yards per unit.

Jordan Chunn is projected to lead the way on the ground for Troy on Saturday. He averages 110 yards and 1+ TDs per sim.

Analyst's Pick

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USC at Washington State Predictions: Analyst Preview

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

NCAA Football Friday: USC at Washington State

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The USC Trojans have a tricky matchup this Friday when they head up to Pullman against Washington State. USC's favored by 4.5 points at the time of publication, but AccuScore sim data is suggesting the odds in Vegas are off.

We're always interested when AccuScore sim data and Vegas odds differ on the favorite -- and that's exactly the situation we've got here. Let's take a closer look.

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

While Vegas has the visiting Trojans as 4.5-point favorites, the AccuScore sim data actually has the spread a whole 5.5 points swinging the other way.

Our data has Washington State as a 1-point favorite, providing a whole lot of value on the home 'dog. The Cougars cover a 4.5-point spread in close to 59 percent of simulations. Washigton state covering the spread is being offered in most books at -110, which indicates a 52-to-53 percent chance of happening. With them covering the spread in 59 percent of simulations, our sim data would have listed the odds to cover at -145, indicating some value on the -110.

The Cougars are getting +170 on the money line, indicating a 37 percent of winning.

AccuScore sim data has Washington St. winning about 51 percent of sims; the data would have listed their money line odds at +105, providing a whole lot of value to the +170 listed in most books.

Betting Trends
• Washington State is 8-2 straight up (SU) in its last ten games against Pac-12 competition.
• USC is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in its last five games.
• Washington State is 4-1 SU in its last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of USC's six games.

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What to Watch For

Washington State has been impressive on defense this year, but USC of course is a whole different beast. They lost middle linebacker Peyton Pelluer to an injury, and that might be the biggest x-factor in this matchup. The senior had 194 total tackles in just the last two seasons, and was a big-time factor in containing the opposition's ground attack.

The Cougars' defense averages 1 forced turnover per simulated matchup.

Trojans QB Sam Darnold threw for 22 TDs to 4 INTs vs Pac-12 opponents last season.

Darnold is projected to finish with 280 passing yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in Friday night's matchup.

USC vs Stanford: Analyst Preview/Pick

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

AccuScore is 4-0 on ranted teams facing off in Week 1 picks ATS & Totals...All of AccuScore’s latest College Football picks

USC vs Stanford: Pac-12 Analyst Pick

No. 6 USC hosts the no. 14 Stanford Cardinal this Saturday with the Trojans listed as 6.5-point favorites and the total at 54.5.

Stanford has competed well against USC in recent momeory, having won seven of the last nine meetings between the two sides. Stanford's also covered the spread in six of the last seven matchups at the Coliseum.

What to Watch For

Keep an eye on Cardinal RB Bryce Love. He averaged over five yards a carry in last year's matchup with USC, and will have the backfield to himself this time around with Christian McCaffrey in the NFL. Love finished with 180 yards on just 13 carries against Rice in Week 1.

Love is projected to finish with 144 yards on 19 carries and 1 TD. He averages 0.7 TDs per sim. In simulated matchups where Love finished with better-than-average rushing yards and 1 or more rushing TDs, Stanford improves its winning probability from 44 percent to 59 percent.

Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Data

No hot trend alerts here, but AccuScore sim data definitely provides a whole lot more value on the road team than do Vegas odds. At the time of publication, the Trojans are laying 6.5 points; AccuScore sim data, however, has USC favored by just 3 points, a 3.5-point differential between the Vegas odds and sim data.

Stanford's listed at +210 on the money line, indicating a 32 percent chance of happening. AccuScore sim data has Stanford winning about 44 percent of sims; the data would have listed the Cardinal at about +125 on the money line, indicating quite a bit of value on the +210.

Betting Trends
• The OVER is 4-1 in Cardinal last 5 games overall.
• Stanford is 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games in September.
• Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games.
• USC is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Analyst's Pick

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