2018 Baseball Win Totals Projections - Futures Picks

Written by AccuScore Staff
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2018 Baseball Season Futures - Win Totals & Picks

The 2018 Major League Baseball season begins with all 30 teams taking the mound and stepping up to the plate on Thursday, but before dads take their kids out of school for the day to play hooky at the ball park, AccuScore simulated out the entire 2018 MLB season to project win totals for every team in the Majors. Of course, our computer also has playoff odds, and we put our win totals side-by-side with the win totals line Las Vegas oddsmakers are using ahead of Opening Day.

Note: AccuScore's Expert Futures Picks were perfect 3/3 in 2016 and 5/6 in 2017

In the American League, the Houston Astros come off their World Series win with a projected win total of 95.7 wins, which is still below Vegas' line of 96.5. AccuScore gives the Astros 91.3% chance of making the postseason and 76.3% odds to win the AL West. The Astros are the most likely AL team to make the playoffs and are only second behind the Cleveland Indians to win the division. The Indians are 77.8% to win the AL Central with the Minnesota Twins expected to offer the only resistance considering the Tigers, White Sox and Royals are all projected to be stuck near the bottom of the American League standings.

Along with the Astros, Indians and Yankees, the Boston Red Sox project to make the postseason and are favorites to snatch a Wild Card spot. Boston is 70.2% to make the postseason and only a couple percent behind the Yankees to win the AL East. Of all the divisions, the AL East projects to provide the most intriguing division race. What else is new?

In the National League, the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs and LA Dodgers all project to win their respective divisions. The Cubs expect to finish with the best record in baseball at 96.7 wins, which is higher than Vegas' line of 94.5 wins. Only the Astros and Dodgers get a higher win total line in Vegas. The Cubs are also AccuScore's most likely team to make the playoffs at 96.1% to play into October. The Nationals, meanwhile, are AccuScore's most likely team to win their division at 86.6%.

MLB Season Futures - Win Totals Expert Picks

Every year, our analysts make expert picks on Season totals. In 2016, our experts got all three of their picks correct. In 2017, we got adventurous and doubled our picks and ended the year with five of our six picks correct. So, we're back this year with another set of Season Win Totals picks, but as always, these are Members Only!
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AccuScore has every Opening Day game forecast live with Expert Baseball Picks for every game!

2019 Baseball Win Totals Lines, Picks for Every Team

Written by AccuScore Staff
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2019 Baseball Season Futures - Win Totals & Picks

The 2019 MLB season is starting, which means the marathon season is upon us. That also means this is the best time to take a look at AccuScore's total win projections and compare them against Vegas win totals lines to find value. AccuScore's projections will adjust as the season progresses and you can always see adjusted win-loss projections at the bottom of the Expert Baseball Picks page.

So, without further delay, here are AccuScore's baseball season win projections side-by-side with Las Vegas win totals lines.

As you can see, there are a number of teams where AccuScore and Vegas disagree on projections, and we've put the ones that are off by 5.0 games or more in red and the ones that have a difference of 4.0 games or more in yellow. Notably, the win total lines for the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets are just about identical for both Vegas and AccuScore.

On the opposite end, the greatest value comes via the San Francisco Giants. Vegas has set a line of 73.5 wins. AccuScore projects the Giants will win 79.9 games, which means there's a 6.4 game discrepancy. Only five teams have worse win total lines to start the season, and the odds of the Giants outperforming the low line are pretty good according to AccuScore.

AccuScore has every Opening Day game projection live with Expert Baseball Picks for every game!

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Baseball Futures Expert Picks: 2019

1. San Francisco Giants: OVER 73.5: The Giants are simply projected to win far more games according to AccuScore, and this is the greatest value pick on the board.

2.Tampa Bay Rays: UNDER 84.5: The Red Sox and the Yankees are stacked, and both teams are projected to win over 90 games. Add in that the Orioles are projected to win 65 games, according to AccuScore, and there just aren't all that many wins left for the Rays in the AL East. It'll be an interesting fight, but there are a lot of good reasons to pick the Under here.

3.Kansas City Royals: OVER 69.5:OK, the Royal are not projected to be good, but even the slightest of good runs and the Royals pay off big time. In this case, the Royals only need to get to 70 wins to pay off, and AccuScore projects a robust 73.4 wins. Take the Royals Over.

Expert Betting Analysis: Dodgers vs D-Backs

Written by Rohit Ghosh
Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

MLB Thursday: LA Dodgers vs Arizona D-Backs – Analyst Picks

With 80 wins already recorded on the season, the LA Dodgers head into Thursday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks playing like title-level squad, making it impossible to keep pace with them in the standings. Their newest addition in Yu Darvish gets his second start for the Dodgers, matched up across from Arizona's Anthony Banda.

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Betting Trends

• The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 overall.
• The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 games on grass.
• The Dodgers are 43-8 in their last 51 games as a favorite.
• The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 Thu. games.
• The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games.

All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

Trends vs AccuScore Sim Data

We’re always interested when we our simulation data goes against recent betting trends or Vegas odds makers. That’s exactly what we’ve got in tonight’smatchup with recent trends suggesting the UNDER on the total (9). The UNDER is 7-2 in Arizona’s last nine Thursday games as an underdog.

AccuScore sim data has the OVER as a two-star (out of four) hot trend, with about 54 percent of sims going OVER 9.

Vegas vs AccuScore

Despite the Dodgers playing at a ridiculous level right now, AccuScore sim data suggests a whole lot more value on the home ‘dogs than to Vegas odds. Arizona’s getting +170 on the money line at the time of publication, indicating about a 37 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sim data, however, has Arizona winning close to 49 percent of sims.

AccuScore would have listed the home ‘dogs at about +105, suggesting some good value on the +170 listed in Vegas.