• Baseball's Betting Strategy: Top Trends - May 2017

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Top MLB Trends: May 2017

    Understanding how to read the MLB Archives is the most important skill when it comes to strategizing for a sport like baseball that has so many games, possibly too many games. As we approach the end of May and head into the dog days of summer, AccuScore took a moment to analyze what is working with regards to moneyline and side value picks.

    Side Value Trend: 122-127, 49% + 1,533 on picks when the home team is between 45% and 55% to win.

    What does this trend mean? Simple: When it comes to close games, AccuScore’s Side Value picks tend to perform and turn a profit. Similarly, AccuScore’s best moneyline trend falls in a similar category:
    Moneyline Picks: 136-113, 54.6% +1,177 where the home team is between 45% and 55% to win.

    Again, when it comes to close games, AccuScore tends to get it right and turn a profit. In fact, AccuScore’s most profitable range is -109 to +109. On the moneyline, AccuScore is 77-62, 55% + 1175 in games where the home team has odds of -109 to +109. Likewise, AccuScore is 77-63, 55% +991 on side value when the home team has odds of -109 to +109.

    Tonight's MLB Picks: There are a couple games on tonight's schedule that fall into the aforementioned category, which means these trends can apply tonight: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

    Baseball Hot Trends - May 2017
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    More May Baseball Hot Trends

    Top Team Trend: Side Value
    New York Yankees: 10-1, 90.9% + 1002 on all side value picks when NYY is a Vegas road underdog

    Top Team Trend: Moneyline
    Baltimore Orioles: 15-2, 88.2% +1117 on all moneyline picks when Vegas lists the Orioles as a road underdog.

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  • Dodgers vs Angels - Analyst Preview

    Written by AccuScore Staff
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    Dodgers vs Angels: Analyst Preview

    Only eight games on the MLB slate for a Monday? Usually there’s more action to pick from, but there’s some quality action in the evening games as the interleague showdown between the Angels and Dodgers takes center stage at Chavez Ravine. The Angels are 38-28 against the Dodgers since 2005, entering this year's Freeway Series after winning the 2016 affair 3-1.

    Left-hander Rich Hill and right-hander Ricky Nolasco are set to face off with the Dodgers entering the matchup having won 10 straight games.

    Tonight's MLB Picks: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

    Odds vs Sim Data

    Just given how the Dodgers are playing of late, it's no surprise they're heavy run-and-a-half favorites at home, listed at -215 on the money line.

    Vegas odds suggest the Dodgers have over a 68 percent change of winning Monday night; AccuScore simulation data seems to agree with that notion with the home side winning about 63-to-64 percent of matchups.

    The Dodgers -- despite the lack of overall value -- are a four-star hot trend pick on the money line.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Angels are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games overall.
    • The total has gone OVER in five of the Angels’ last seven games.
    • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Dodgers’ last 16 games.
    • The Dodgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home.

    Dodgers vs Angels

    Starting Pitchers

    Hill has recorded 40 innings pitched heading into Monday’s matchup, logging a 4.73 ERA with four wins in seven games. He got the win his last time out allowing just one run over five innings against the New York Mets. Historically, he has a 6.23 ERA in six career appearances against the Angels.

    Nolasco, on the other hand, hasn't had a whole lot of success this year, recording just 2 wins in 11 games with a 5.23 ERA. The Angels have lost the last 10 games in which Nolasco got the start; he enters Monday's matchup giving up the most HRs in the American League. Nolasco has given up 23 home runs in 84 1/3 innings.

  • Expert Betting Analysis: Dodgers vs D-Backs

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: LA Dodgers vs Arizona D-Backs – Analyst Picks

    With 80 wins already recorded on the season, the LA Dodgers head into Thursday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks playing like title-level squad, making it impossible to keep pace with them in the standings. Their newest addition in Yu Darvish gets his second start for the Dodgers, matched up across from Arizona's Anthony Banda.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 overall.
    • The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 games on grass.
    • The Dodgers are 43-8 in their last 51 games as a favorite.
    • The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 Thu. games.
    • The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games.

    All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    Trends vs AccuScore Sim Data

    We’re always interested when we our simulation data goes against recent betting trends or Vegas odds makers. That’s exactly what we’ve got in tonight’smatchup with recent trends suggesting the UNDER on the total (9). The UNDER is 7-2 in Arizona’s last nine Thursday games as an underdog.

    AccuScore sim data has the OVER as a two-star (out of four) hot trend, with about 54 percent of sims going OVER 9.

    Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Expert Picks

    Vegas vs AccuScore

    Despite the Dodgers playing at a ridiculous level right now, AccuScore sim data suggests a whole lot more value on the home ‘dogs than to Vegas odds. Arizona’s getting +170 on the money line at the time of publication, indicating about a 37 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sim data, however, has Arizona winning close to 49 percent of sims.

    AccuScore would have listed the home ‘dogs at about +105, suggesting some good value on the +170 listed in Vegas.

  • How To: AccuScore's Baseball Betting System

    Also, please see: AccuScore's NFL and NCAA Football System Explained

    How to Use AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    New to AccuScore or haven't been here in a while? We got you. Here's how AccuScore works:

    First of all, since we're talking about baseball picks, click on "Baseball" at the top of the any AccuScore.com as demonstrated with the giant red arrow below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Boom! Now you're on the baseball picks page. If you're not logged in as a member, you'll see one free game listed and all the other games will be shaded out. So, it's best to log in here and get full access to all the games. Click "Login" at the top right of the page, as demonstrated by the green arrow in the image below.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    And so, now that you're in member mode, there are two primary ways to read AccuScore's picks. The graph view is the default view with the shaded in circle, but you can also enter the grid mode by clicking on the purple arrow in the image above.

    Graph Mode vs Grid Mode

    The default Graph Mode shows two circles. The Outside circle shows AccuScore's simulations results, i.e. Moneyline Picks. Meanwhile, the inside circle displays the current Las Vegas odds converted into a percentage. The visual of the odds and AccuScore's percentages side-by-side allows you to see the Side Value as the dark blue shaded portion of the inner circle. Hovering over the dark region, you can see the amount of Side Value the computer calculates, as displayed in the image below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Above the circles, one finds star-ratings for the moneyline pick and for the Side Value pick. These stars rate from 1 to 4, with a 4-star pick meaning that a significant number of historic trends increases the computer's confidence in that particular pick.

    Below the circles in the shaded bottom third of the box, there is an Over/Under pick. In the example above, the computer's pick is listed as "Under" with the total runs line set at 8.5 runs. Next to "8.5" AccuScore shares its confidence in the pick by detailing that 59.4% of AccuScore's simulations went Under 8.5 runs.

    Next to the Totals pick, AccuScore also lists a Run Line pick. In the example above, AccuScore's pick is the New York Mets with a +1.0 runs handicap. In this case, only 44.9% of simulations ended with the Mets winning outright, while 25.1% of simulations ended with the Mets losing by exactly one run and the Nationals winning by 2 or more runs 38.0% of the time. As such, the pick is Mets +1, as this is the most likely outcome.

    Grid Mode: Ode to the Old Times

    Go back a couple images and the purple arrow shows you how to enter Grid Mode. Once there, You'll see something like this:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    The grid system is built on showing value and picks via numbers instead of images. So, here's the breakdown, reading left to right on the image above:

    "Date" and "Team" should be pretty self-explanatory.

    Then, we get into "Acc Sim%" - This is AccuScore's simulation results. In the example above, Kansas City won 36.4% of simulations, while Seattle won 63.6% of AccuScore's simulations.

    The "Odds%" column is Las Vegas moneyline odds converted to a percentage. Seeing the percentages side-by-side shows you where the value is. In the Seattle vs Kansas City game, AccuScore's 63.6% for Seattle to win is greater than Vegas's 56.4% to win, so there is value in picking Seattle on the moneyline in this example.

    "PS" is short for Point Spread, which means the handicap pick. The picks are listed in order: "Seattle -1.0, CHW +1.0, etc."

    "OU" on top of "ACC OU" is the Over/Under, or Totals, pick. The top row displays the current Total Runs line in Las Vegas. Below it, AccuScore lists the computer's calculated line. If it's higher than the Las Vegas line, the pick is Over. If it's lower than the Vegas line, the pick is Under. Simple.

    The Grid view also allows you to sort picks by star ratings for Moneyline, Side Value or Totals.

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    By clicking on the yellow arrow (below) in either mode, you can enter the full game forecast. The blue arrow points to the written free preview and trends available for all games.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Inside the game preview, you can adjust the handicap lines and adjust the Over/Under lines to see AccuScore's percentages at any different line within reason. Using the red arrow in the image below, you can use AccuScore's extra tools to adjust Handicap Lines, Totals lines and view player props. The green arrows below display how to use the tool to adjust lines.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System


    Want more?

    AccuScore forecasts also feature fantasy data, team trends and an archive of all of AccuScore's past picks for download. Just scroll down in the forecast to see even more expert analysis and trends:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    July 2017 - Top Baseball Trends

    Entering July, here's a quick rundown of AccuScore's top trends:

    • All Moneyline Pick when Home Team is 45% to 55% to win in Simulations:
    – 258-206 55.6% +2,540 units profit

    • All Side Value Picks when Vegas Lists Home Team from -109 to +109:
    – 143-116, 55% +2138

    • NY Yankees – All Side Value Picks as Vegas Road Underdog:
    – 15-3, 83.3% +1321

    • Baltimore Orioles – All Moneyline Picks as a Road Underdog
    – 23-7, 76.6% +1,091.

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  • Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland A's Trend

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Baseball action continues as we hit hump day with 15 games on the MLB slate. We're always interested when Vegas odds differ from AccuScore simulation data and there are multiple games like that today.

    Let's take a closer look at one such matchup.

    All of Today's AccuScore Baseball Picks (Includes free full forecast of the Cubs vs Braves)

    Tampa Bay @ Oakland

    Jacob Faria takes the mound for the Rays, matched up across from the A's Sonny Gray -- who just might be pitching his last start with Oakland. Faria gets the start Wednesday with a chance to get a 3-0 sweep of Oakland this week.

    Why are we interested in this matchup? Vegas odds indicate the A's as slight favorites; our data, however, suggests a pick on the road 'dogs.

    The Lean Towards Faria -- Simply put, he's been fantastic this season with an ERA of 2.00 and a WHIP of 0.98. With seven quality starts already this season, it's clear that he's figured out how to stump batters. He's projected to pitch close to seven winnings with an ERA of 2.5 Wednesday.

    Value Pick: Whereas the odds indicate Tampa Bay as the underdog, our data has them winning over 55 percent of simulated matchups. A quality start by Faria increases the Rays' winning probability from 55 percent to 72 percent.

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    OVER/UNDER Betting Trend

    The UNDER is 8-2 in Oakland's last 10 games after a loss. They came up short 4-3 on Tuesday vs TB.

  • Thursday Baseball Betting Analysis: Tigers-Orioles

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles

    Projected Starters: Matt Boyd (5-5, 5.30 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (1-6, 7.65 ERA)

    We’ve got a four-star hot trend alert in this matchup as the Baltimore Orioles get set to host the Detroit Tigers. The Orioles opened as slight home favorites on the money line (-120), with the total set at 10.5. Tillman’s struggles have been well documented this season, but let’s not forget the abysmal performance Boyd had in his previous start against Baltimore – 2.1 innings pitched with 8 hits allowed and 1 home run. Baltimore’s batting close to .600 against Boyd this season – that’s the variable we’re looking at in this matchup.

    All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    Boyd vs Tillman

    Boyd has struggled this season against right handers. At the same time, Baltimore is 20-16 in games against a left-handed starter. He has allowed an .859 on-base plus slugging (OPS) to right handers this season – in 14 starts. All nine of his allowed HRs have come to right handers.

    Vegas Odds

    Vegas odds opened up the Orioles at -120 on the money line, suggesting Baltimore has about a 54.5 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sims have the Orioles winning a little over 55 percent of simulations, basically agreeing with the Vegas line.

    A four-star hot trend is always attractive, especially given the fact that Baltimore is 7-2 in their last nine at Camden.

    Recent Trends vs AccuScore Data

    The OVER is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts, and 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 home games against a team with a losing record.

    Given the fact we have a pair of starters in this matchup projected to give up runs, the OVER seems like a lock - right? The sim data says otherwise, with close to 60 percent of sims staying below the total. The average combined total in sims is about 9.9.

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  • Top Baseball Betting Trends - June 2017

    Written by AccuScore Staff
    Follow @AccuScore on Twitter

    Top Baseball Trends: June 14, 2017

    The NBA season is over. The NHL season is over. Football may be here in the blink of an eye, but the dog days of summer provide the opportunity to play long trends and focus on Major League Baseball. AccuScore pointed out some rather glaring trends at the end of May.

    At the time, we pointed out two top trends: one for Side Value Picks and one for Moneyline picks.

    First, Side Value Picks when the home team was between 45% and 55% to win were +1,533 units profit at the end of May. A couple weeks later, that same trend is now + 2598 units profit, nearly 70% increase in profits.

    Second, Moneyline picks where the home team was favored between 45% and 55% were +1,177 units profit. A couple weeks later, that same trend is now +2055 units profit, which is an increase of nearly 75%. We pointed to two major trends we saw as profitable and then told everyone who would listen about them. We can only do so much.

    Tonight's MLB Picks: There are a couple games on tonight's schedule that fall into the aforementioned categories, which means these trends apply tonight: Click Here for All of today's MLB Picks

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    Here are a few NEW Scorching Hot Trends...

    Top Baseball Trends: June 2017

    Vegas Home Favorite: AccuScore Moneyline picks - 380-265, 58.9% +2,399
    Vegas Home Underdog: AccuScore Side Value Picks – 146-146, 50% +794
    Vegas O/U Line is 11+: AccuScore Totals Picks – 14-6-2, 70% +740

    Top Baseball Team Trends:

    Baltimore Orioles: 21-2, 91.3% +1,483 on all moneyline picks when Vegas lists the Orioles as a road underdog. (This trend was +1,117 in May’s Top Trends)

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