• Expert Betting Analysis: Dodgers vs D-Backs

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: LA Dodgers vs Arizona D-Backs – Analyst Picks

    With 80 wins already recorded on the season, the LA Dodgers head into Thursday's matchup with the Arizona Diamondbacks playing like title-level squad, making it impossible to keep pace with them in the standings. Their newest addition in Yu Darvish gets his second start for the Dodgers, matched up across from Arizona's Anthony Banda.

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    Betting Trends

    • The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 overall.
    • The Dodgers are 44-8 in their last 52 games on grass.
    • The Dodgers are 43-8 in their last 51 games as a favorite.
    • The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 Thu. games.
    • The Diamondbacks are 41-18 in their last 59 home games.

    All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    Trends vs AccuScore Sim Data

    We’re always interested when we our simulation data goes against recent betting trends or Vegas odds makers. That’s exactly what we’ve got in tonight’smatchup with recent trends suggesting the UNDER on the total (9). The UNDER is 7-2 in Arizona’s last nine Thursday games as an underdog.

    AccuScore sim data has the OVER as a two-star (out of four) hot trend, with about 54 percent of sims going OVER 9.

    Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Expert Picks

    Vegas vs AccuScore

    Despite the Dodgers playing at a ridiculous level right now, AccuScore sim data suggests a whole lot more value on the home ‘dogs than to Vegas odds. Arizona’s getting +170 on the money line at the time of publication, indicating about a 37 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sim data, however, has Arizona winning close to 49 percent of sims.

    AccuScore would have listed the home ‘dogs at about +105, suggesting some good value on the +170 listed in Vegas.

  • How To: AccuScore's Baseball Betting System

    Also, please see: AccuScore's NFL and NCAA Football System Explained

    How to Use AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    New to AccuScore or haven't been here in a while? We got you. Here's how AccuScore works:

    First of all, since we're talking about baseball picks, click on "Baseball" at the top of the any AccuScore.com as demonstrated with the giant red arrow below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Boom! Now you're on the baseball picks page. If you're not logged in as a member, you'll see one free game listed and all the other games will be shaded out. So, it's best to log in here and get full access to all the games. Click "Login" at the top right of the page, as demonstrated by the green arrow in the image below.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    And so, now that you're in member mode, there are two primary ways to read AccuScore's picks. The graph view is the default view with the shaded in circle, but you can also enter the grid mode by clicking on the purple arrow in the image above.

    Graph Mode vs Grid Mode

    The default Graph Mode shows two circles. The Outside circle shows AccuScore's simulations results, i.e. Moneyline Picks. Meanwhile, the inside circle displays the current Las Vegas odds converted into a percentage. The visual of the odds and AccuScore's percentages side-by-side allows you to see the Side Value as the dark blue shaded portion of the inner circle. Hovering over the dark region, you can see the amount of Side Value the computer calculates, as displayed in the image below:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Above the circles, one finds star-ratings for the moneyline pick and for the Side Value pick. These stars rate from 1 to 4, with a 4-star pick meaning that a significant number of historic trends increases the computer's confidence in that particular pick.

    Below the circles in the shaded bottom third of the box, there is an Over/Under pick. In the example above, the computer's pick is listed as "Under" with the total runs line set at 8.5 runs. Next to "8.5" AccuScore shares its confidence in the pick by detailing that 59.4% of AccuScore's simulations went Under 8.5 runs.

    Next to the Totals pick, AccuScore also lists a Run Line pick. In the example above, AccuScore's pick is the New York Mets with a +1.0 runs handicap. In this case, only 44.9% of simulations ended with the Mets winning outright, while 25.1% of simulations ended with the Mets losing by exactly one run and the Nationals winning by 2 or more runs 38.0% of the time. As such, the pick is Mets +1, as this is the most likely outcome.

    Grid Mode: Ode to the Old Times

    Go back a couple images and the purple arrow shows you how to enter Grid Mode. Once there, You'll see something like this:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    The grid system is built on showing value and picks via numbers instead of images. So, here's the breakdown, reading left to right on the image above:

    "Date" and "Team" should be pretty self-explanatory.

    Then, we get into "Acc Sim%" - This is AccuScore's simulation results. In the example above, Kansas City won 36.4% of simulations, while Seattle won 63.6% of AccuScore's simulations.

    The "Odds%" column is Las Vegas moneyline odds converted to a percentage. Seeing the percentages side-by-side shows you where the value is. In the Seattle vs Kansas City game, AccuScore's 63.6% for Seattle to win is greater than Vegas's 56.4% to win, so there is value in picking Seattle on the moneyline in this example.

    "PS" is short for Point Spread, which means the handicap pick. The picks are listed in order: "Seattle -1.0, CHW +1.0, etc."

    "OU" on top of "ACC OU" is the Over/Under, or Totals, pick. The top row displays the current Total Runs line in Las Vegas. Below it, AccuScore lists the computer's calculated line. If it's higher than the Las Vegas line, the pick is Over. If it's lower than the Vegas line, the pick is Under. Simple.

    The Grid view also allows you to sort picks by star ratings for Moneyline, Side Value or Totals.

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    By clicking on the yellow arrow (below) in either mode, you can enter the full game forecast. The blue arrow points to the written free preview and trends available for all games.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    Inside the game preview, you can adjust the handicap lines and adjust the Over/Under lines to see AccuScore's percentages at any different line within reason. Using the red arrow in the image below, you can use AccuScore's extra tools to adjust Handicap Lines, Totals lines and view player props. The green arrows below display how to use the tool to adjust lines.

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System


    Want more?

    AccuScore forecasts also feature fantasy data, team trends and an archive of all of AccuScore's past picks for download. Just scroll down in the forecast to see even more expert analysis and trends:

    AccuScore Baseball Betting System

    July 2017 - Top Baseball Trends

    Entering July, here's a quick rundown of AccuScore's top trends:

    • All Moneyline Pick when Home Team is 45% to 55% to win in Simulations:
    – 258-206 55.6% +2,540 units profit

    • All Side Value Picks when Vegas Lists Home Team from -109 to +109:
    – 143-116, 55% +2138

    • NY Yankees – All Side Value Picks as Vegas Road Underdog:
    – 15-3, 83.3% +1321

    • Baltimore Orioles – All Moneyline Picks as a Road Underdog
    – 23-7, 76.6% +1,091.

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  • MLB Analyst Preview: Tigers v Rangers

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Preview (53-64) Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers (56-60)

    Projected Pitchers: Justin Verlander (8-7) – 3.97 ERA vs A.J. Griffin (5-3) – 5.40 ERA
    Moneyline Odds: Tigers -113, Rangers +103
    Total: 10.5

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    We've got an AL showdown Monday night between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers, both on the outside looking in at the playoff picture. The Rangers have won two-of-three previous games this season against the Tigers, but head into Monday's matchup as slight home underdogs.

    Verlander enters the matchup after giving up just one hit and zero runs in eight innings against the San Diego Padres. The Rangers' bats, though, come into this game with plenty of momentum, winning three of their last four and taking the season series over the Houston Astros.

    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore Simulation Data

    Vegas has the home Rangers as slight home 'dogs, but AccuScore data actually has Texas winning the majority of games.

    With the Rangers winning about 55 percent of sims, AccuScore would have listed them at a -120 or -125 on the money line -- making the +103 very attractive.

    Betting Trends
    - The Tigers are 2-7 straight up (SU) in their last nine games overall, and on grass.
    - The Rangers are 7-1 in Griffin's last eight Tuesday starts.
    - The Rangers are 21-7 in Griffin's last 28 starts on grass.
    -The Rangers are 10-3 in Griffin's last 13 starts.

    Analyst Pick on the Total

    Most books in Vegas have the total set at 10 or 10.5, but AccuScore sims actually have that number down at 9 -- indicating a pick on the UNDER.

    About 53 percent of sims stay below the total. The UNDER is 7-3-1 in the Tigers' last 11 Tuesday games.

    Want more baseball? Baseball Expert Picks

  • MLB Wednesday: Analyst Free Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Baseball: Analyst's Odds Analysis

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore sim data don't match up, and we've got exactly that sort of a situation in today's Indians-Twins matchup. At the time of publication, the Twins are home underdogs, getting +150 to +155 on the money line. Most books have the total set at 9.5, with a few still at 9.

    More MLB Analysis: AccuScore's Baseball Expert Picks

    Betting Trends vs AccuScore Sims

    All signs point to Cleveland taking this, as evidenced by the Vegas odds. Even look at some of the applicable betting trends:
    - Cleveland is 4-0 straight up (SU) in their last four road games, and 4-0 in last four against right-handed pitchers.
    - Minnesota is 0-4 on the other hand in their last four against a pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco heads into his 24th start of the season with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP.
    - Whereas the Vegas money line odds indicate the Twins have about a 40 percent chance of winning the matchup, AccuScore sim data has the Twins winning 47 percent of the time.

    AccuScore would have listed the home side at +110, suggesting quite a bit of value on the +150 listed in most books. The Twins winning Wednesday’s matchup is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.

    What the data primarily indicates is the fact the sims expect a more competitive game than do Vegas odds. The Twins cover a +1.5 run spread in over 60 percent of sims.

    Pick on the Total

    AccuScore sims have the total set at 8, an average of 1.0-1.5 runs lower than the total set in Vegas – indicating a pick on the UNDER. As a whole, the Twins have been outscored by 50 runs this season and their bats haven’t had a lot of momentum of late.

    Expecting a close game based on the AccuScore sims – and the UNDER.

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  • Rangers vs Marlins - Monday Baseball Analysis

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    Date/Time: July 24, 5:05 PM Pacific

    Money Line Odds: Marlins +125 odds | Rangers -145 odds
    Over Under Total: 11
    Pitching Matchup: Adam Conley (2-3, 6.75 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (5-7, 4.72 ERA)

    Rangers vs Marlins: Betting Analysis

    We're always interested when Vegas odds and AccuScore simulation data are on opposite sides of the money line, and that's exactly the type of situation we have in this matchup.

    Whereas the Rangers are home favorites -- with about a 59 percent chance of winning (-145 ML) -- AccuScore sim data actually has the Marlins as slight road favorites. AccuScore sim data would have listed Texas between +110 and +105, suggesting the opposite of value when comparing to the actual odds listed in Vegas.

    Miami, though, shows some potential winning over 52 percent of simulated matchups. AccuScore data would have listed them at about -110, making the actual +125 odds fairly attractive.

    • The Marlins are 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games on the road.
    • The Rangers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
    • The Rangers are 2-4 straight up (SU) in their last six vs the Marlins.

    All of Today's AccuScore Baseball Picks

    Hot Trend

    All signs point to this being a high-scoring contest. Miami is in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defense on the road, giving up about 5 runs per game; Texas, at the same time, is in the top-five in offense at home.

    There's a four-star hot trend on the total, with the majority of simulated matchups going OVER.

    • The total has gone OVER in four of the Rangers' last six games.

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  • Thursday Baseball Betting Analysis: Tigers-Orioles

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Thursday: Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles

    Projected Starters: Matt Boyd (5-5, 5.30 ERA) vs. Chris Tillman (1-6, 7.65 ERA)

    We’ve got a four-star hot trend alert in this matchup as the Baltimore Orioles get set to host the Detroit Tigers. The Orioles opened as slight home favorites on the money line (-120), with the total set at 10.5. Tillman’s struggles have been well documented this season, but let’s not forget the abysmal performance Boyd had in his previous start against Baltimore – 2.1 innings pitched with 8 hits allowed and 1 home run. Baltimore’s batting close to .600 against Boyd this season – that’s the variable we’re looking at in this matchup.

    All of Today's MLB Picks: AccuScore's Baseball Picks

    Boyd vs Tillman

    Boyd has struggled this season against right handers. At the same time, Baltimore is 20-16 in games against a left-handed starter. He has allowed an .859 on-base plus slugging (OPS) to right handers this season – in 14 starts. All nine of his allowed HRs have come to right handers.

    Vegas Odds

    Vegas odds opened up the Orioles at -120 on the money line, suggesting Baltimore has about a 54.5 percent chance of winning. AccuScore sims have the Orioles winning a little over 55 percent of simulations, basically agreeing with the Vegas line.

    A four-star hot trend is always attractive, especially given the fact that Baltimore is 7-2 in their last nine at Camden.

    Recent Trends vs AccuScore Data

    The OVER is 4-0 in Boyd's last four starts, and 10-1 in Baltimore's last 11 home games against a team with a losing record.

    Given the fact we have a pair of starters in this matchup projected to give up runs, the OVER seems like a lock - right? The sim data says otherwise, with close to 60 percent of sims staying below the total. The average combined total in sims is about 9.9.

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  • Yankees vs Indians Analysis, Expert Pick

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    MLB Tuesday: Cleveland Indians vs New York Yankees Analysis

    Moneyline: Cleveland Indians -105, New York Yankees -105
    Total: Over 9.5 (+107), Under 9.5 (-117)

    Pitching Matchup

    Cleveland's Trevor Bauer is 13-8 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 25 starts and 26 games this season. He hasn’t recorded a loss since July 16, and got the win last time out against NY. Against the Yankees on August 4, Bauer pitched 7 innings and gave up a run, seven hits and two walks in a 7-2 victory.

    New York's Jaime Garcia is 5-8 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the season. Garcia doesn’t have a win on the season for NY yet, but two of his starts did finish as wins for the team. Against Cleveland on August 4, Garcia gave up 6 runs -- 5 of which were earned -- 5 hits, , and 4 walks in 4.2 innings pitched.

    All of Today’s MLB picks: AccuScore's Baseball Expert Picks

    Vegas vs AccuScore

    At the time of publication, the Yankees and Indians are both listed at -105 on the money line, indicating about a 51.2 percent chance of winning.

    AccuScore sims, however, have New York winning about 60 percent of simulated matchups, indicating a hot trend pick on the home side. The sim data would have listed New York at -155, making the -105 highly attractive.

    Analyst's Pick

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  • Yankees vs Rays: MLB Analysis

    Written by Rohit Ghosh
    Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

    NY Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays

    We've got a fun one on deck Thursday as Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays head to Yankee Stadium to face CC Sabathia and the New York Yankees. New York's a slight home favorite to win the matchup (-105) with the total at 8.5.

    Pitching Matchup

    Archer's been fairly pedestrian this season, entering Thursday's matchup with an ERA of 3.77 and a 7-6 record. Good news for the Rays, though, is the fact that their bullpen is in the top third of the league with an overall ERA of 4.1. They've given up their fair share of bombs -- ranking No. 19 with 118 home runs -- to go along with an average of 8.4 hits per nine innings.

    Sabathia, with his 9-3 record and an ERA of 3.44, continues to shine when given the chance. He is 2-1 with a 3.29 ERA in his last three starts. Fun fact - Sabathia has allowed one run in 10 innings against the Rays this season. Teams are hitting just .208 against the Yankees bullpen. New York's bullpen is even better than Tampa Bay's, ranking No. 6 in the league in team ERA at 3.86.

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    Comparing the Numbers

    Tampa Bay is 24-26 on the road, with 26 of the 50 games going OVER the total, 22 staying UNDER, and two pushes. The Rays -- on average -- score 4.6 runs per game and give up 4.1.

    New York is 27-17 at home this season, with 25 of the 44 games going OVER, 18 staying UNDER, and one push. The Yankees are averaging approximately 5.3 runs per game while giving up 3.9.

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    Vegas Odds vs AccuScore

    While Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites, AccuScore data ups that winning probability up to 61 percent. AccuScore sim data would have actually listed New York at a -155 on the money line, making the -105 they opened at fairly attractive.

    At the time of publication, New York is hovering between -115 and -120 on the money line in most books in Vegas.