Fernando Torres Gives Spain Best Chance to Win

Entering the 2014 World Cup, Spain is still a force to fear. As has been the model for its impressive run of trophies, the defending world and European champions are stacked with a core of midfielders that can pass and possess the ball better than any other team in the world. This time around, though, Spain should also feature a first-rate striker with Brazilian-born Diego Costa returning to fitness at the perfect time.

However, is Costa the right fit for the champions?

AccuScore performed 10,000 statistically-based simulations designed to predict the best striker for Spain. Holding all 11 players on Netherlands and the 10 other Spanish players constant, the computer played out Friday’s marquee match with several different combinations in the forward role to calculate the best striker for Spain, and the results were somewhat surprising.

If Costa starts, he has a 40.7 percent probability of scoring. Of all of the computer’s combinations, Costa garnered the highest probability for any player on either team to see his name on the scorer’s sheet. However, with Costa in the lineup, Spain only had a 46.2 percent probability of winning.

If David Villa replaces Costa, he only has a 17 percent chance of scoring, but Spain, as a team, wins 47.7 percent of its matches, a slight improvement over Costa starting in the setup. Costa may be more clinical in front of goal, but Spain loses a bit of fluidity with Costa versus Villa.

Most eye-catching, if Fernando Torres starts for Spain, “El Niño” has a 31 percent chance to score, but Spain has an incredible 48.7 percent chance to win. When it came to strikers, the computer thinks Torres gives Spain the best chance to win Friday’s game.

If Spain manager Vicente Del Bosque opts to sit all his strikers and start Cesc Fabregas as a false no. 9, Spain wins 47.9 percent of the time, so Torres still edges the competition.