Written by Rohit Ghosh

Follow @rohitghosh on Twitter

Monday Night Football:
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

The 2-1 New England Patriots once again hit the road to face a 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs team that will be playing its first primetime game of the 2014 season. Despite somewhat of a sluggish start for the Chiefs, they do head into Week 4 coming off a 34-15 victory over a Dolphins squad that dominated the Pats in Week 1.

While there's no doubt Kansas City quarterback Alex Smith could replicate his efficient performance from last week, where he threw 19-25 for 186 yards and three TDs, the key this week will be how productive the returning Jamaal Charles can be on the ground.

Can Kansas City achieve enough balance on offense to get past a much-improved Patriots defense?

Projected Leaders

Tom Brady: 282 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 90.3 QB Rating
Alex Smith: 182 yds, 1 TD, 64.2 QB Rating

Stevan Ridley: 16 carries, 68 yards
Jamaal Charles: 21 carries, 87 yds

Julian Edelman: 7 receptions, 81 yds
Dwayne Bowe: 5 receptions, 67 yds

Game Projection


AccuScore has the Chiefs as slight 51.5 percent favorites to win.

AccuScore Expert Pick:

Members, log in now at the top right of the page to see AccuScore’s expert pick and top betting trends for tonight’s Monday Night Football game
New to AccuScore? Sign up for a monthly membership & get a 7-day trial FREE! Join Here!

AccuScore’s pick: Kansas City +3

The computer gives the Chiefs a 54.5% chance of covering at home and only a 39.8% chance of the Patriots covering -3. The value pick is the Chiefs against the spread. While MGM Mirage in Las Vegas has Kansas City as the slight underdog (+150), with a 40 percent chance of winning, AccuScore has the Chiefs as a slight favorite with a 51.5 percent chance of winning. AccuScore would have listed KC at -105.

Top AccuScore Betting Trends:

• AFC Matchup: 9-6-1, 60% +240 against the spread
• AFC West Team vs non-AFC West team: 6-3-1, 67% +270 vs the spread
• Kansas City vs the Spread: 2-1-0, 67% +90

What to Watch For

Turnovers: For as poor as the Chiefs have been in terms of committing turnovers, the Patriots have been as exemplary. New England leads the league with a +6 turnover differential, while Kansas City is at a -6. The Chiefs defense has yet to force a turnover, alarming for a defense that focuses on getting to the QB. The New England Patriots commit fewer turnovers in 32 percent of simulations, and go on to win 62 percent of simulations when they take care of the ball better than Kansas City. As a whole, the Chiefs win 58 percent of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers.

Sub-par New England Offensive Line: Heading into Week 4, any success the Pats have had has been a result of their defense. The offense has been below average, with the offensive line struggling to protect Brady. Keep an eye on the Chiefs trio of Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Each recorded a sack last week. Kansas City is projected to record 2 sacks this week.

Team Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 8-3 straight up (SU) in their last 11 games.
• The Patriots are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games on the road.
•The Patriots are 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road.
•The Patriots are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games on the road.
•The Chiefs are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
•The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Chiefs’ last 10 games.
•The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
•The Chiefs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home.