NFL Week 10: Preview & Analysis
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Colts are 54% road favorites with Andrew Luck projected for 257 passing yards and a 48% chance of passing for 2 or more TDs. There is only an 18% chance that Blaine Gabbert passes for more TDs than Luck but if he does the Jags are 75% favorites. If Luck has 2 or more passing TDs the Colts are 71% favorites. If Rashad Jennings has a big game filling in for the injured Maurice Jones-Drew and has 75+ rushing yards and at least 1 TD then Jacksonville is a 64% favorite. If Jennings has under 75 rushing yards the Jags only have a 24% chance of winning.
DENVER BRONCOS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Broncos are on a roll but they are only 52% road favorites against the Panthers who have a shot if they do not turn it over much. There is a 39% chance that Cam Newton throws no INTs and if so the Panthers have a 64% chance of winning. If Newton has 1 or more INTs the Panthers only have a 38% chance. Peyton Manning is projected for 2 TDs. There is only a 14% chance that Cam Newton passes for more TDs than Manning but if he does the Panthers are 74% favorites. There is a 50% chance that Manning has 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT and the Broncos win 65% of these simulations.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Doug Martin is averaging 100 rushing yards per sim but San Diego is actually winning just over 51% of the simulations. If Martin has 100+ yards then Tampa Bay is the 66% favorite, but if he is held under 100 then Tampa Bay only has a 29% chance. There is a 37% chance that Ryan Mathews has more rushing yards than Martin and if so then San Diego is the 82% favorite. Philip Rivers needs to avoid INTs. When the Chargers win in simulations Rivers averages just 0.9 INTs, but in simulations where the Chargers lose Rivers averages 1.8 INTs.
TENNESSEE TITANS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins are 73% favorites with the Titans defense struggling to stop the pass and run. Ryan Tannehill is completing 64% of his passes and is averaging just 0.5 INTs per sim while the combo of Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas are averaging 150+ rushing yards on nearly 5.0 ypc. If the Titans can hold the Dolphins to under 4.0 ypc rushing and force at least 1 INT then Tennessee is the 53% favorite. Chris Johnson is only averaging 3.3 ypc for 53 yards per sim. If he can have a 75+ yard, 5.0+ ypc game with at least 1 rushing TD then the Titans have a 50% chance of winning.
BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are heavy 81% favorites. Tom Brady is averaging just 0.7 INTs per sim vs 1.5 for Ryan Fitzpatrick. There is only a 19% chance that Fitzpatrick throws fewer INTs than Brady but if that happens the Bills are just 42% underdogs. If Fitzpatrick has fewer INTs than Brady and the Bills average 5.0+ ypc rushing then Buffalo is the 54% favorite. If the Patriots rush for more yards than the Bills then Buffalo only has a 10% chance of winning.
OAKLAND RAIDERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Raiders run defense was demolished by Tampa Bay and Ray Rice is forecasted for a big 100+ rushing game. The Ravens are 78% home favorites as a result. It also hurts that Darren McFadden is doubtful. There is only a 24% chance that Oakland rushes for more yards than Baltimore but if they do then Oakland is the 59% favorite. Carson Palmer is averaging more INTs than TDs. If Palmer has more TDs than INTs then Oakland's chances improve from 22 to 43%. If Palmer plays well and Joe Flacco throws at least 1 INT then Oakland is the 53% favorite.
NEW YORK GIANTS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Eli Manning is expected to bounce back from a bad game vs Pittsburgh with a projected 265 yards, 2 TDs vs the Bengals and NY is the 61% road favorite. Cincinnati has not beaten a playoff caliber team in 2012 and 2011 and Andy Dalton is throwing costly INTs. There is only a 29% chance that Dalton throws no INTs but if he doesn't then the Bengals are the 54% home favorites. If he throws at least 1 INT then Cincinnati only has a 33% chance.
ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The undefeated Falcons are slight 1 point underdogs in simulations vs the Saints despite Matt Ryan forecasted for a huge game with 325 yards and a nearly 4 to 1 TD to INT ratio (2.3 TDs vs 0.6 INTs). If Ryan has 2+ TDs and no INTs then Atlanta is the 59% favorite. Drew Brees is also forecasted for a big game with 355 yards and 2.5 TDs per sim, but he is averaging over 1 INT. In simulations where the Saints win Brees averages just 0.9 INTs vs 1.6 INTs in simulations where the Saints lose.
DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
With Christian Ponder struggling the Lions are 61% road favorites. Ponder is averaging a strong 235 yards per sim, but he is also averaging more INTs than TD passes. If Ponder has more TDs than INTs (a 36% chance) then Minnesota has a 62% chance of winning. But when Ponder has more INTs than TDs the Vikings on win 24% of the time. Matthew Stafford is averaging over 2 TD passes per sim. If he has 2+ TDs and is well protected and only sacked two time or less then Detroit is the solid 69% favorite. But if Stafford has no more than 1 TD and is sacked 4 or more times then Minnesota is the 73% favorite.
NEW YORK JETS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seattle is the 65% favorite with Marshawn Lynch averaging nearly 100 rushing yards per sim. If he has 100+ yards then Seattle is the 83% favorite, but if the Jets hold Lynch under 75 yards then the Jets are the 57% favorites. Mark Sanchez is only completing 51% of his passes for 0.7 TD passes per sim and the Jets are only averaging 16 points per sim. If Sanchez completes over 60% of his passes and has more TD passes than INTs then the Jets have a 68% chance of winning.
DALLAS COWBOYS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
If DeMarco Murray is healthy and Dallas rushes for over 100 yards then the Dallas is the 73% favorite, but if they are held to under 100 yards Dallas only has a 36% chance. LeSean McCoy is averaging 4.3 ypc in simulations. If he averages at least 5.0 ypc the Eagles are the 57% favorite. If McCoy averages 5.0+ ypc and Vick throws no more than 1 INT then Philly is the 61% favorite. Tony Romo is averaging 280 passing yards for 2 TDs per sim. If the Eagles intercept Romo at least once and sack him at least 3 times then the Eagles are the 64% favorite.
ST. LOUIS RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Sam Bradford is passing for 216 yards vs 206 for Alex Smith, but Smith is averaging twice as many TD passes per sim (1.6 vs 0.8) and the 49ers are 82% favorites. If St. Louis executes in the red zone and Bradford has 2 or more TD passes then the Rams chances do improve to 34%. For the Rams to upset SF they need Bradford to have more TD passes than Smith and they need to hold the 49ers to under 4.5 ypc. If they do both then the Rams are 58% favorites. If SF averages 4.5 or more yards per carry then the 49ers are 88% favorites.
HOUSTON TEXANS @ CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears defense is holding Arian Foster to just 4.3 ypc and 87 rushing yards per sim. As a result, Chicago is the 56% favorite. If Foster has at least 85 rushing yards and averages 4.5 or more yards per carry then Houston is the 57% favorite. The Texans defense is doing well limiting Jay Cutler to just 210 yards and 1 TD per sim. They are also sacking Cutler 4 times per sim. If Houston sacks Cutler 4 or more times and intercepts him at least once then the Texans are 63% favorites. But if Cutler has no more than 1 INT and is sacked under 4 times then Chicago is the 76% favorite.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers are heavy 83% favorites. The Steelers are averaging over 60 more passing yards and nearly 20 more rushing yards per sim than the Chiefs. There is a 35% chance that KC rushes for more yards than the Steeler and if they do the Chiefs' chances jump from 17 to 37%. If the Chiefs also can intercept Ben Roethlisberger at least twice then KC has a 56% chance of winning. There is a 51% chance that Ben Roethlisberger has 2 or more TD passes and no more than 1 INT and if so Pittsburgh is the heavy 92% favorite. There is a 64% chance that the Steelers win by double digits.