Written by AccuScore Staff
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Denver Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler has recorded two wins in his two starts. Top level defense and an improved running game have been keys for tight victories, and Osweiler has been able to minimize his mistakes and lead the Broncos better than many skeptics expected.
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Standing tall with a 9-2 record, the Broncos have over 99% probability of reaching the playoffs, which would make it five years in a row. As Peyton Manning's future is shadowed by injuries, the Broncos need to have a plan to replace Manning - sooner rather than later, actually. Osweiler should get the final five games for the organization to evaluate if he can be a long cornerstone of the organization.
With the season in the third quarter, AccuScore has copious amounts of data on the Broncos this season, so we simulated the Denver Broncos' remaining 5 games with Osweiler versus with Manning to see how each performed over 10,000 simulations per game, so 50,000 simulations in all.
Simulations show that the quarterback position is not the critical role in Denver being successful. Similar to the Arizona Cardinals a year ago, the Broncos can win games regardless of who is standing under center. A top-rated defense combined with a strong running game can surprise many “quarterback is a key to success” believers.
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In simulations, it doesn't make big difference which quarterback is starting. Manning would bring 11.8 wins and Osweiler 11.6 during regular season, though Manning's numbers kept deteriorating, so Osweiler could well end up being the better option by the end of the season. Both have over 99% probability to advance to postseason. Only minor difference that is tipping towards Manning is the probability to win division. If he would be starting that magic number is 93.3%, while Osweiler starting, it is marginally lower at 90.7%.
Broncos will have tough games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Currently, AccuScore predicts that those will be losses in any case. However, Manning gives Denver a slightly better chance to win against Cincinnati. In the remaining divisional games, Denver has 60-70% win probability, so 12 wins won't be difficult to manage.
Based on these numbers, it would be good plan to extend the probation of Osweiler until end of the season and then check who to see which quarterback provides Denver with the best chance in the postseason. Osweiler has a great deal to prove over the final few games of the season, and Denver would rather figure out what they have with the kid during the regular season than the postseason, if Manning were to get hurt or deteriorate further.
