NBA Trade Deadline Breakdown

After a slow build-up and the news that Dwight Howard was staying in Orlando, the NBA exploded with action right at the deadline Thursday.  A flurry of moves saw mostly Western Conference teams try to tweak their rosters for a run at the playoffs.  The Lakers said so-long to stalwart Derek Fisher and brought in Ramon Sessions to be the new point guard.  Denver made possibly the biggest move sending Nene to Washington in exchange for the mercurial, but talented JaVale McGee.  An offshoot of that deal sent Nick Young to the Clippers giving L.A.’s other team some help on the perimeter.  Several teams made deals taking on salary, but also hoarding draft picks.

Below are charts documenting how each team’s playoff odds changed after each player involved changed teams.  This does not include the possibility of players getting bought out.  The rosters already take into account the previous Monta Ellis-Andrew Bogut trade between Golden State and Milwaukee.  Surprisingly Houston made the biggest improvement despite adding two of the oldest players in the league.  This is because Marcus Camby, even in his diminished stage, replaces three virtual non-entities on the roster.  The Lakers also improved slightly with Sessions splitting time with Steve Blake at point.  The Blazers drop a full two games in the projections, and capped off their dismantling by firing head coach Nate McMillan as well.

March 15: post-deadline analysis for ALL teams

The trade impact factors ALL trades and not just those impacting the team.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Additions:  Ramon Sessions, Christian Eyenga, Jordan Hill
Subtractions:  Derek Fisher, Luke Walton, Jason Kapono

LA Lakers

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

13.2

9.8

57.2%

98.3%

81.5%

After Trade

13.3

9.7

58.0%

98.8%

82.6%

TRADE IMPACT

0.2

-0.2

0.7%

0.5%

1.1%

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Additions:  Mehmet Okur, Shawne Williams
Subtractions:  Gerald Wallace, Marcus Camby

Portland Trail Blazers

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

12.8

10.3

55.4%

35.8%

0.0%

After Trade

10.8

12.2

46.9%

16.5%

0.0%

TRADE IMPACT

-2.0

2.0

-8.5%

-19.3%

0.0%

HOUSTON ROCKETS
Additions:  Marcus Camby, Derek Fisher
Subtractions:  Jonny Flynn, Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill

Houston Rockets

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

11.1

10.9

50.4%

65.0%

0.6%

After Trade

12.4

9.6

56.4%

81.5%

1.6%

TRADE IMPACT

1.3

-1.3

6.0%

16.5%

1.0%

INDIANA PACERS
Addition:  Leandro Barbosa

Indiana Pacers

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

15.5

9.5

60.3%

99.2%

2.0%

After Trade

15.8

9.2

63.1%

99.5%

2.3%

TRADE IMPACT

0.3

-0.3

2.9%

0.3%

0.3%

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Addition:  Richard Jefferson
Subtraction:  Stephen Jackson

Golden State Warriors

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

9.6

16.4

37.1%

4.1%

0.2%

After Trade

10.4

15.6

40.2%

7.3%

0.3%

TRADE IMPACT

0.8

-0.8

3.1%

3.2%

0.1%

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Addition:  Stephen Jackson
Subtraction:  Richard Jefferson

San Antonio Spurs

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

16.8

8.2

67.3%

100.0%

88.5%

After Trade

16.3

8.7

65.1%

100.0%

84.4%

TRADE IMPACT

-0.6

0.6

-2.2%

0.0%

-4.1%

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Addition:  Nick Young
Subtraction:  Brian Cook

LA Clippers

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

12.5

12.5

49.9%

79.4%

18.1%

After Trade

12.5

12.6

49.8%

80.7%

16.9%

TRADE IMPACT

0.0

0.0

-0.1%

1.3%

-1.2%

DENVER NUGGETS
Additions:  JaVale Mcgee, Ronny Turiaf
Subtractions:  Nene

Denver Nuggets

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

12.7

10.3

55.3%

80.7%

0.1%

After Trade

11.9

11.1

51.8%

74.1%

0.1%

TRADE IMPACT

-0.8

0.8

-3.4%

-6.6%

0.0%

WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Additions:  Nene, Brian Cook
Subtractions:  JaVale McGee, Ronny Turiaf

Washington Wizards

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIV_WIN

Before Trade

7.6

17.4

30.5%

0.0%

0.0%

After Trade

7.6

17.4

30.3%

0.0%

0.0%

TRADE IMPACT

0.0

0.0

-0.2%

0.0%

0.0%

 

March 13: The Golden State Warriors trade Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh, and Kwame Brown to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Andrew Bogut, and Stephen Jackson.

There had been a lot of talk of the Warriors moving Ellis, perhaps to Orlando to team with Dwight Howard, and making a choice between him and Stephen Curry.  Instead Golden State made the first big move of the deadline sending Ellis to Milwaukee to get the oft-injured but productive Andrew Bogut.  Milwaukee acquires an elite level scorer to pair in the backcourt with Brandon Jennings and freed itself of Jackson.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIVISION

Before Trade

13.1

10.9

54.6%

52.5%

0.0%

After Trade

13.1

10.9

54.6%

53.1%

0.0%

DIFF

0

0

0.0%

0.6%

0.0%

The trade leaves the Milwaukee Bucks unaffected in the chase for the final playoff spot.  They currently have the edge over New York for the eighth seed in the East making the postseason in 53 percent of simulations.  The Knicks have lost 6 straight games, and are 49 percent likely to make the playoffs.

GOLDEN STATE

WIN

LOSS

WIN%

PLAYOFF

DIVISION

Before Trade

10.9

17.1

38.9%

6.2%

0.4%

After Trade

11.3

16.7

40.4%

7.1%

0.5%

DIFF

0.4

-0.4

1.4%

0.9%

0.1%

The Warriors actually improve slightly in the standings and the chase for a playoff spot.  Some of their players were reportedly questioning this trade thinking the team was “giving up on the season.”  AccuScore simulations show that line of thinking isn’t true.  Ellis is a great scorer, but a flawed player.  The Warriors improve by 0.4 wins over the rest of the season by giving more touches and shots to more efficient offensive players Curry and David Lee.

We currently project the injured Bogut to return in April, and contribute significantly as one of the better two-way centers in the league.  Losing a young big man like Udoh hurts, but Bogut is a much better player overall when he is able to get on the court.  A three-game winning streak has put Golden State within three games of the eighth and final playoff spot in the competitive West.  This trade improves the admittedly slim chances from 6.2 percent to 7.1 percent.

February 23: (Rumored Trade) Pau Gasol for Carlos Boozer and C.J. Watson
The Lakers turmoil has been well-documented with Kobe Bryant telling team management either to trade Pau Gasol or to tell him he’s staying.  Gasol, while having some flaws, is still one of the best big me in the game today with a skill level unparalleled among 7-footers.  It’s obvious why Chicago would want him to pair with Joakim Noah.  A Noah/Gasol duo would be a unique blend of offense and defense with both players capable of igniting a fast break themselves off a rebound.  The trade is less obvious for the Lakers with Boozer seemingly a downgrade at the power forward position, but bringing some help in the backcourt.  Watson would likely be immediately the third guard for the Lakers.

CHICAGO BULLS

WIN

LOSS

%

DIV%

PLAYOFF%

w/ Boozer & Miles

18.9

12.1

61.0%

84.4%

100.0%

w/ Pau Gasol

19.9

11.1

64.2%

88.4%

100.0%

IMPACT

1.0

-1.0

3.2%

4.0%

0.0%

Current projections have Chicago finishing second in the East behind the Miami Heat.  This theoretical trade would boost the Bulls by a game, and push them up to the top seed in the conference.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

WIN

LOSS

%

DIV%

PLAYOFF%

w/ Pau Gasol

19.1

13.9

57.9%

46.1%

91.6%

w/ Boozer & Watson

19.9

13.1

60.3%

52.2%

94.0%

IMPACT

0.8

-0.8

2.4%

6.1%

2.4%

The Lakers are currently projected to finish a game behind the Clippers, but with this trade they end up edging out the Clippers for the Pacific.  The slight uptick is surprising, but is explainable.  Boozer on paper looks like an attractive option with similar point and rebound numbers to Gasol.  Much of the benefit though is derived from Watson taking over minutes from the current motley point guard crew of the Lakers.  Watson represents a nice improvement over Derek Fisher and Steve Blake, not to mention deeper options like Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock.