Written by Jonathan Lee

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NCAA Tournament: EAST REGION

AccuScore has picks for every game in the tournament with picks against the spread and on totals. Also our analysts break down the best value bets each round of the tournament. Sign up now using the coupon code March100 and get $100 off an annual membership of AccuScore. Click to Join Now!

Top seed: Indiana
The Hoosiers are the most efficient offensive team in the nation scoring 1.23 points per possession, and pair that with an elite defense allowing just 0.89 points per possession for the season. That recipe is how you build an elite team, and that is why this squad is a No. 1 seed. IU shouldn’t sweat their games until possibly Syracuse in the Sweet 16, and even then they are 56 percent favorites. UNLV doesn’t present a huge threat as a 5-seed either, and Marquette is the weakest 3-seed in the field as well. The Hoosiers are nearly 28 percent likely to reach the Final Four, second best of all the top seeds behind Kansas.

Underseeded: Davidson
The Wildcats haven’t lost since January 14, a streak of 17 games. They are one of the best shooting teams in the nation from every spot on the floor with all six of their main players with true shooting percentages over 55 percent. They do well getting to the free throw line, and make great use of it with the best FT percentage in the NCAA (80.1 percent). AccuScore simulations give Davidson an impressive 47.5 percent chance to pull off the upset which is closer to the rate of an 8 or 9-seed.

Team to Avoid: Marquette
The Golden Eagles, along with Oregon, are one of the most mis-seeded teams in the field. They are a very good offensive team, but are very turnover prone and do not have very much size with Davante Gardner being wide, but standing just 6’8’’. Marquette is also one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation, and just average defensively. That is not a recipe for a deep run with so much being dependent on 2-point jump shots. Even if they can get by Davidson, they are still the least likely 3-seed to advance to the Sweet Sixteen (32.6 percent) according to AccuScore projections.

Mighty Mid-Major: Davidson
Seeded 14th and matched up with Marquette, the SoCon champs are +3.5. By contrast, the other three 14 seeds are +10, +11, and +20.5.

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