Written by Jonathan Lee

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NCAA Tournament 2013: South Region

AccuScore ‘s Expert NCAA Tournament picks against the spread and on totals are available now on the College Basketball Expert Picks page. Also our analysts will have his special picks for each round of the tournament.
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Top seed: Kansas
The tournament committee was kind to the Jayhawks as they are the AccuScore odds-on favorite to advance to each stage. Kansas is the only No. 1 seed to be more than likely (50.85 percent) to reach the Elite Eight with much of that attributable to the weakness of the 4/5 seeds according to our projections. KU would be a 59 percent favorite over VCU, 65 percent against Michigan, and even 61 percent against Georgetown. Florida is the real threat, but that would not come until the Regional Final. Ben McLemore is the offensive perimeter star while Jeff Withey is quite possibly the best defensive player in the country. And add in the rapidly improving freshman big Perry Ellis who has scored 55 points over the last 4 games on an incredible 22-29 shooting.

Underseeded: Florida
It’s hard to be underseeded when you are a 3, and the Gators probably “deserved” this spot. But they are also just about as good as other teams like Georgetown, Ohio State or Gonzaga according to the computers. Florida, at 14.2 percent, is more likely than every team except the four No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four. The road is paved for the Gators as they look to have a very easy road to the Regional Final.

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Team to Avoid: VCU
This is based entirely on a much tougher than you would think match-up with Akron to start the tournament. VCU is a very slight underdog to Akron at 49 percent, but would actually be favored in the next game against potentially Michigan. I’m not entirely sure what is causing that in simulations, but it’s enough for me to stay away from the Rams. A trendy Final Four pick, they obviously won’t get very far if they get upset in their first game. VCU does have their trademark Havoc defense and score off turnovers and 3-pointers. Akron isn’t great at protecting the ball on offense, but does everything else well offensively, and are a solid defensive team in their own right. If VCU doesn’t shoot it well from the perimeter they could easily lose to the Zips.

Mighty Mid-Major: Akron and VCU
Both VCU and Akron qualify for this spot. VCU can create trouble for any team with their pressure defense, particularly if their 3-pointers are falling. Akron, as I wrote above, is a threat to upset VCU and is the most likely 12-seed to reach the Elite 8 (or beyond). The Zips have size with Zeke Marshall, and a good point guard in Alex Abreu.