Written by Jonathan Lee

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2013 Final Four Futures – Expert Analysis

Louisville: -145/+125 (Will win the tournament, Yes / No)
Michigan: +350/-450
Syracuse: +425/-550
Wichita State: +1500/-2500

Louisville is the odds-on favorite to win the NCAA title, and with good reason. The Cardinals are 70 percent favorites to beat Wichita State according to simulations, and would be 59 percent favorites over Syracuse and 65 percent against Michigan in the Finals. The -145 odds however, imply a probability of over 59 percent. Not enough value to bet in my opinion.

Michigan, if it has to play Louisville in the Finals, would be just 17 percent likely to win the title considering its underdog status to Syracuse. Syracuse is the better bet at +425 being perceived as the underdog to Michigan, but as the slight favorite according to our simulations. The Orange also project as the better match-up against Louisville, and have played the Cardinals before in the Big East.

If I had to pick one value for the Final Four, it would be the longshot Shockers at +1500. They are underdogs to be sure against Louisville winning just 30 percent of simulations. But they would be much closer matched in the Finals winning 48 percent of the time against Michigan and 43 percent against Syracuse. The betting odds imply just a 6.25 percent chance of winning, but in reality Wichita probably has better than twice those odds. While that is just 13 to 14 percent, there is still value in the that large +1500 number.

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