By Jonathan Lee
Our BracketCaster is now LIVE! We preview the bracket with full simulated numbers including round-by-round probabilities and the ability to match-up any two teams in the field of 68 head-to-head. See how your favorite team fares, which games could be upsets, and run your own simulations.
Preview the South and West Regions
EAST REGION (Boston)
Top seed: Syracuse
All year long Syracuse has used its depth and length in the 2-3 zone to wear down its opponents. That should in handy during this tournament situation. Kansas State and Southern Miss are not good shooting squads, and Wisconsin does not have nearly the same kind of talent. Vanderbilt poses a threat to the zone with Festus Ezeli and three shooters in John Jenkins, Brad Tinsley, and Jeff Taylor. The lack of star power may be Syracuse’s undoing however as Ohio State is the true favorite in this region. The Orange are 36.4 percent to reach the regional final, and 19 percent to reach the Final Four. They are also the least likely one-seed to win the championship at 4.35 percent.
Underseeded: None
This is the only region where even the top four seeds are the four favorites according to simulations to reach the Final Four. The East actually has the top five seeds as the top five favorites. The region is basically ordered by chalk unlike all the other quadrants of the bracket.
Team to Avoid: Cincinnati
The Bearcats made a run to the Big East championship game, and have rebounded well since their brawl with Xavier. That incident seemed to spark this team and propel them to a solid season. They are facing a tough test in their first game in Texas being just a 51.7 percent favorite, by far the lowest number of any of the six-seeds. Cincinnati is just 22.7 percent to reach the Sweet 16 as well again the lowest for any of the six –seeds.
Mighty Mid-Major: Harvard
This region looks bereft of a real potential Cinderella story. Gonzaga has long since shed that label and is more of a favorite as a seven-seed. Harvard has made the tournament for the first time in decades, and has a real chance at beating Vanderbilt. The Commodores are playing their best basketball at the right time after beating Kentucky to win the SEC tournament. They are however still vulnerable if they revert back to their inconsistent play that plagued them early in the season. Harvard is the most likely 12-seed to get a win aside from the at-large Cal/South Florida duo at 34.2 percent.
Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of: Will Cherry, Montana
Cherry is a 6’1’’ junior guard that averaged 16.0 pts, 3.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.6 steals. He also was named Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year. His match-up with Jordan Taylor in the second round could be one of the best of the first weekend.
SIGN-UP now and use the coupon code "march100" to get $100 off an annual membership instantly. This deal last just through the end of the NCAA tournament so act today!
MIDWEST REGION (St. Louis)
Top seed: North Carolina
The Tar Heels are expected to have John Henson at full strength. That is big, and with a one seed with relatively weak Michigan and Georgetown in their region they got about as good a draw as could have been hoped. North Carolina is the most likely top seed to reach the Elite Eight at 50.8 percent. It is just 29.3 percent likely to make the Final Four however because of a potential match-up with Kansas. The Jayhawks are not perfect though, and have had a history of flaming out early in the tournament. Should they not make it to the regional final there does not appear to be another real challenger for North Carolina on the road to New Orleans.
Team to Avoid: Michigan
Michigan is the least likely 4-seed to win its first game beating Ohio in 65 percent of simulations. The Wolverines then are just 52 favorites against either Cal or South Florida, and are actually underdogs (45 percent) in a potential match-up with Temple. Michigan is simply too reliant on the 3-point shot. That is John Beilein’s style and he is a very good coach, but his team doesn’t have enough talent up and down the lineup to make up for a poor shooting performance.
Underseeded: Creighton
The Jays went 28-5 and won the very competitive Missouri Valley, and were rewarded with a potential third-round game against North Carolina not to mention Alabama in the second. They probably should have been switched with San Diego State or St. Mary’s in this region for a six- or seven- seed.
Mighty Mid-Major: Belmont
The Bruins are a 14-seed, but they are more than capable of knocking off 3-seed Georgetown. Belmont nearly upset Duke in Cameron Indoor losing by a point in the season opener. It is riding a 14 game winning streak, and is one of the best shooting teams in the country with a 55.7 eFG%. Belmont is the most likely 14-seed to advance at 30.4 percent.
Best Player You’ve Never Heard Of: Ray McCallum, Detroit
This never would have gone to Detroit were his father not the head coach. He was a McDonald’s All-American in 2010, and was recruited by the likes of Duke and UCLA. Instead he lifted the Titans to the Horizon League championship and the tournament for the first time since 1999. Kansas, his second round opponent, doesn’t have a McDonald’s All-American player on its roster.
Follow Jon on Twitter @thejonlee
Stay up to date with AccuScore on Twitter @AccuScore
