Spanish La Liga Expert Analysis: Girona vs Deportivo La Coruña

Spanish La Liga: Girona vs Deportivo La Coruña

Friday night brings on one game in Spanish La Liga, as Girona hosts Deportivo La Coruña. While the home team has surprised everyone and is fighting for the European seeding, currently at 7th spot, the visitors have been as bad as they were expected. You can find Accuscore’s pre-season assessment of the Spanish La Liga 2017/2018 here.

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Girona has played energetic football all season and have lately surprised many a team especially at home. They’ve won their last five home games without conceding a single goal. Their record is 11-7-9 in 27 games with 40 points. Girona has scored on average 1.69 goals at home, while conceding 1.0 only. Christhian Stuani is currently 6th in the scoring race of Spanish La Liga with 14 goals, followed by Portu with 11 goals. While Girona isn’t remarkably good in any statistical category, they’ve improved greatly in the past weeks and are putting on a serious challenge for Europe.

Deportivo was the most likely candidate for relegation in Accuscore’s pre-season forecast and that’s exactly how they look at the moment. Being second to last in Spanish La Liga, Deportivo has only won four games this season, collecting 19 points in 27 games with seven draws and 16 losses. Their goal difference is abysmal 25:57 as they’ve conceded most goals in the league.

On the road they’ve managed to win one game and draw three, collecting 6 points in 13 games. They’ve scored on average 0.85 goals on the road and conceded 2.69, which tops the league as well. Their top scorers are Florin Andone with seven and Adrian with five goals. Deportivo has lost four straight on the road, scoring only one goal and lost seven of their last eight away games. Last time Deportivo finished a game as winners was 9.12.2017 and they’re 12 games without a win.

Accuscore’s Spanish La Liga Side Value picks have made fantastic profits once again this season, going 153-218 and +2549, with 100 unit even stakes! You can find all the football betting record archives and trends HERE

Accuscore Simulations

In Accuscore simulations, the home team Girona is an overwhelming favorite to take the win over their visitors Deportivo. The home team wins 75.1% of all simulations, leaving Deportivo with only 9.3% and the draw with 15.6%. There’s great value for the home win, since the odds indicate a probability of ~60%.

While neither team has been particularly great offensively, in this game Girona is likely to show some attacking prowess by scoring on average 2.56 goals in the simulations. Deportivo still struggles, only scoring 0.77 on average. While the combined average reaches 3.33, the odds for the totals are quite where they should be and there’s no great value either way.

The most likely goal scorers wear the home team’s jersey. Cristhian Stuani finds the net with 59% chance, while Portu scores with 51% probability. Visitors are not creating much chances in the game, with only 2.13 shots on goal on average. The most likely scorer is Florian Andone, with 20.5%.

Expert Picks

We can’t look past the home team here, even with slightly low odds. Girona is in great form and have looked extremely good at home. Deportivo, on the other hand, has been awful and there’s no indication that would change today. Check the best odds to play from or similar!

  • Girona to win, 75.1 % - take the home win with odds of 1.34 | -301 or better
  • Girona to win, handicap -1.5,5% - take home win with -1.5HC with 2.54 | +154
  • To score a goal: Stuani. 59% - odds of 1.70 | -143
  • To score a goal: Portu, 51% - odds of 1.97| -104

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