Written by Pete Käenmäki

Cesena vs. AC Milan – Offense is the best defense?

One often wonders what goes through a football manager’s mind, when they select a certain formation and suitable players for selected tactics. In AC Milan’s case their new manager, ex-striker “Pippo” Inzaghi, has selected a rather offensive 4-3-3 formation instead of another common formation 4-2-3-1. Results wise, Milan has been struggling in the early season. Is offense really the best defense? Or should Inzaghi adjust his tactics? We at Accusore can go a tad further using our simulation engine and our statistical models. Let computer tell us – would Milan be a bigger favorite away against promoted Cesena with three strikers or with Torres left alone in front?


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Milan – with a 4-3-3 formation

After 10,000 simulations Accuscore’s computer tells us that when Milan and Inzaghi chooses to play with a 4-3-3 formation, they’ll win the match on Sunday with a 58 percent probability and score 1.84 goals. In this case Fernando Torres has a 39.4 percent chance to find the net. Cesena would score 0.89 goals.

Milan – with a 4-2-3-1 formation

This formation is more commonly used in England, but has been the most popular formation in the last years. Now, what would be the influence in Milan’s case – is it really a better choice to use three strikers or should Pippo place Menez and Bonaventura a tad lower and let Keisuke Honda play at “10-spot”. We had our simulation engines at full throttle and our computer told us following. With these players the change in formation wouldn’t result big advantages. With a 4-2-3-1 formation Milan would win the match with a 57 percent probability and score 1.81 goals, so the difference is rather small. Even El Niño would find the net with a 38.8 percent probability. In this case Cesena would score 0.94 goals, which is 0.05 more than when Milan playing with 4-3-3.

AccuScore has expert betting tips for this match & every other Serie A match: Serie A Expert Picks In conclusion, changing to a slightly less offensive formation wouldn’t change much, but AccuScore’s computer states that Milan wouldn’t actually do quite as well against Cesena as they will with a 4-3-3. But the impact would be very small. Overly the encounter would be just slightly more to the overish side, but at the same time Milan’s probability to win would practically be the same as it is with 4-3-3. It really looks like Inzaghi knows better and that the offense really is the best defense. At least in Milan’s case.