Written by Shahan Ahmed
Sunday from White Hart Lane
Since Manchester United embarrassed Arsenal 8-2 seven odd matches ago, Arsenal have played 6 matches and only lost 1: a 4-3 horror show at Ewood Park that included 2 Gunner own goals in the 2nd half. The Gunners enter this weekend’s North London Derby after recording victories in 3 consecutive contests. After a difficult start, the Gunners are currently in good spirits.
Wednesday’s Champions League victory was especially satisfying because Arsenal were able to rest Aaron Ramsay, Kieren Gibbs, and Robin Van Persie and still manage to collect a full 3 points. All 3 players came on as substitutes under Pat Rice’s direction (Wenger was serving his highly publicised ban), and all 3 should be in the starting XI at White Hart Lane on Sunday. The Champions League victory exposed several leaks in Arsenal’s defense, but Arsenal survived the exciting contest.
Oxlade-Chamberlain scored in his Champions League's debut this week
Spurs had their own bit of European excitement this week with White Hart Lane welcoming Shamrock Rovers in the Europa League. Spurs dominated proceedings but were unable to find a breakthrough before the halftime whistle. Then, Rovers took a shock lead at 50 minutes. The Lane was stunned, but the players did not freeze. The three attackers Harry Redknapp started on the day, Giovanni Dos Santos, Jermaine Defoe, and Roman Pavlyuchenko, all took on the responsibility of finishing their chances. Spurs put away 3 goals in the final half hour for a 3-1 scoreline.
None of the three goal scorers expects to start on Sunday, but one player who does expect to start is Emmanuel Adebayor. The tall striker has enjoyed an extended spell of form continuing from his time at Real Madrid last season. The Togolese forward scored 7 goals in 20 La Liga and Champions League appearances last season. This season, he already has 3 goals in 3 Premier League starts, and most importantly, Spurs have won all 3 matches the former-Arsenal forward has started.
Oh right, I suppose we should discuss the fact that Adebayor played for Arsenal from 2006-2009 before making the now seemingly routine change to Manchester City (Clichy and Nasri just made the same jump this past summer). Ofcourse, there was the celebration Adebayor pulled when he scored against Arsenal for Manchester City. However, his thoughts on that celebration seem to have changed over the past 2 seasons.
Adebayor slides in front of Arsenal supporters (click for video)
"What happened two years ago was an accident and I do apologise to all the fans of Arsenal. Sometime the emotions, we cannot control them, we are all human beings," Adebayor told talkSPORT this week. "I regret what I have done and I say sorry to everyone.” Personally, I prefer his description and feelings in the video clip to his recent reflections on the anger and violence it may have caused.
When Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp was asked whether he had one eye on the North London Derby ahead of Thursday’s Europa League tie, he replied, “I've got both my eyes on that one.” This is no ordinary derby, and it’s been absolutely top-notch entertainment in recent meetings.
Last Season
Last season, the two North London derbies were the two of the best matches of the year (in any league), as both were played at a feverish pace, displayed world class quality, and featured extraordinary comebacks. Arsenal got off to strong starts and pulled ahead with a two goal 1st half lead in both contests. In last season’s Emirates encounter, Spurs came back from 2-0 down to win 3-2. At White Hart Lane, the Gunners led 3-1 at 40minutes, but a Rafael Van der Vaart penalty kick leveled the score at 3-3 in the 70th minute. That score held, and Arsenal squandered both matches to the delight of their rivals.
In his first season with Spurs, Rafael Van der Vaart was the most outstanding player on the team and in the derbies. The Dutch midfielder passed off 2 assists and scored 3 goals in the two derby matches last season. He was key in both comebacks, and he will be fully rested and starting on Sunday.
Lineups
Szczesny-Gibbs-Song-Mertesaker-Sagna-Arteta-Ramsey-Frimpong-Rosicky-Arshavin-Van Persie
Notes: Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has scored 2 goals in 2 starts this season, including one at midweek in the Champions League, but the 18 year-old is not expected to start.
This lineup assumes Gervinho, Walcott, and Koscielny do not recover in time to play. If Koscielny returns, Song would move to the midfield and Frimpong would sit on the bench. Gervinho would likely take Arshavin’s place in the side, if he can recover. If Walcott is also passed fit, he would likely take Rosicky’s place.
Friedel-Assou-Ekotto-King-Kaboul-Walker-Sandro-Parker-Bale-Modic-Van der Vaart- Adebayor
Notes: Former Gunner William Gallas will not be fit to play on Sunday & Tom Huddlestone is out for an extended period of time. This same starting XI won 2-1 last weekend, and Harry’s team selection for Thursday hinted at this squad starting. The only variation would involve bringing Aaron Lennon onto the pitch, but with the XI listed above, it would be a tough task to choose a player unworthy of starting.
Computer Analysis
AccuScore performed over 10,000 simulations on the North London derby to determine exact probabilities for each possible result and identify most likely goal scorers in Sunday’s match. Not surprisingly, Emmanuel Adebayor and Robin Van Persie were the more likely goal scorers in the match, but the Togolese striker narrowly edged out the Dutchman. Rafael Van der Vaart was the next most likely scorer in the match.
Tottenham won 52.8% of simulations, Arsenal won 22.8% of simulations, and the teams drew 24.4% of the time. 63% of simulations resulted in 3 or more goal.
AccuScore Pick
AccuScore advises picking Spurs to win at 2.22.
Note: Adebayor to score would be a good bet too.
