Premier League Expert Analysis: Southampton vs Leicester

Midweek EPL Expert Analysis


Southampton - Leicester

Premier League continues with the midweek fixtures, approaching the half-way point of the season. It’s the round 17 of 38 and we’re taking a closer look at the clash of two mid-table hopefuls: Southampton and Leicester.

After Leicester’s surprise title two years back, it’s been a tumultuous time in East Midlands. Relegation threat was eventually thwarted and this season they’ve flown pretty much under the radar performing well and stand currently eight in the Premier League. The Foxes have gathered 23 points from 16 games and have been extremely consistent all season. Last time around they snatched what some might say was a lucky win in Newcastle, with Ayoze Perez late own goal securing the W for Leicester.

Remarkably, Leicester has lost five games this season – all of them against the top teams in the league: Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and the Manchester duo. Leicester is currently in a 3-game winning streak and have lost only one of past five. The previous loss on the road dates back to round 3 of the season, when ManU bested them at Old Trafford. Jamie Vardy has regained his goal scoring form and leads the team with 7 goals scored. He’s well supported by Riyad Mahrez with four goals and five assists, while Shinji Okazaki has provided able backup with four and Demarai Gray with three goals. While the defense has not been as solid as it was during their title run, they’re plus one in goal difference with 23 to 22.

Southampton entered the season once again with high hopes, ready to challenge for the top-6. It hasn’t been an easy season, but they’ve done moderately well in all areas. Standing at 11th spot in the Premier League, they’ve collected 18 points in 16 games. In order to put in a challenge, they do need to do way better despite their hard-fought draw against Arsenal last round. Mauricio Pellegrino’s squad has only won one of their last five and the top of the league is pulling away fast.

Soton has somewhat struggled to score, with only 16 goals scored in as many games. They’ve defended well enough, conceding 19 goals in the progress but scoring is needed in order to win games. Their total of four wins is equal to fifth last in the Premier League. Charlie Austin has banged in five goals, with Steven Davis and Manolo Gabbiadini managing three each. Pellegrino needs his team to fire with all the cylinders, if they’re to get out of the mid-table mediocrity.

Accuscore’s simulations

In Accuscore simulations Southampton is the favorite to win at home. They win with 47.5 % probability, which is 0.4 % higher than the odds indicate. Leicester is winning 28.8 % of the simulations while the odds indicate 28.6 % probability. There’s no great value in any of 3-way bets at the moment.

The teams are usually not scoring a lot nor conceding above average. In the simulations Southampton manages to score 1.47 goals on average, while Leicester’s total tally is 0.98. With slightly higher than even odds for over 2.5 goals, it’s so-so if it will be worth a punt. If there’s to be a goal scored, it’s highly likely the goal scorer will be Southampton’s Charlie Austin (provided he is in the starting XI). Austin’s scoring probability in the simulations is 46 %, while Leicester’s leading scorer Jamie Vardy scores with 27 % probability.

Analyst Picks:

  • Look for the value in 3-way bets as follows:
    • Southampton odds of +111 | 2.11 or better
    • Draw odds of +322 | 4.22 or better
    • Leicester odds of +247 | 3.47 or better
  • Take over 2.5 total goals when the odds reach +110 | 2.10 or better
  • Goal scorers: Charlie Austin +118 | 2.18 / Jamie Vardy +271 | 3.71
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