Written by Shahan Ahmed @perfectpass on Twitter


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Manchester United and Manchester City boasted the top scorers in the league last season. Dimitar Berbatov and Carlos Tevez each knocked in 20 goals in the 2010-11 Barclay’s Premier League. Although both are physically fit, neither striker expects to be involved in this Sunday’s top of the table clash, and those dramatic drops hint at the drastic difference in this year’s Manchester clubs from only 4 months ago. Both clubs sought a significant upgrade in personnel despite United finishing 1st and City finishing 3rd last term.

After 8 rounds of the English Premier League, City and United, once again, boast the top 2 goal scorers in England. Wayne Rooney is top of the table with 9 goals, and Sergio “Kun” Aguero is on his heels with 8 league tallies of his own. However, entering this Sunday’s highly-anticipated Manchester derby, Manchester City are the league leaders, and goals are the driving factor in why the “noisy neighbors” are 2 points clear of their cross-town rivals.

Last season, Carlos Tevez led City in scoring with 20 goals, but the Blues’ next highest scorer was Yaya Toure with 8 goals, not even top 30 in the Premier League. This season, City’s goals have come with more regularity and variety. Currently, Manchester City features 3 of the top 25 goals scorers in the Premier League: Aguero(2nd), Dzeko (3rd), and Balotelli(Tied 10th).

Both Tevez and Berbatov are on their way out of Manchester

As a team, Manchester City have already netted a league-best 27 goals through 8 matches. If City continue this ferocious finishing, they are on pace to score about 128 goals—okay, that probably won’t happen, but City are clearly on pace to better last season’s goal scoring record. Considering City only scored 60 goals last term, the Blues’ improvement in front of goal cannot be shortchanged. City are currently on pace to better last year's mark in less than half a season (17.78 matches to be exact).

Manchester United, last season's Premier League champions, have not exactly fallen off when it comes to scoring goals. Sir Alex Ferguson’s squad not only features the top scorer in the England, Wayne Rooney, but they also have 3 other goal scorers in the top 25. Nani and Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez were expected to be high on the goal scoring charts, but 20 year-old Danny Welbeck has developed at an astonishing rate. Welbeck already has 3 goals and 2 assists in 6 Premier League appearances (4 of which were starts).

20 year-old Danny Welbeck is a star in the making

Welbeck’s loan spell at Sunderland last season revealed a boy who was capable of playing amongst the men of the Premier League. From the middle of November to the beginning of January, Danny Welbeck started 8 Premier League contests for Sunderland and knocked in 6 goals. Unfortunately, an early January knee injury and operation sidelined the Manchester native for 2 months, and he was not the same explosive player for the remainder of his loan spell with the Black Cats.

Since returning to United, Welbeck has enjoyed a good stretch of form and earned call-ups to Fabio Capello’s England senior squad along with two other notable United new additions. Phil Jones and Ashley Young have, arguably, been the absolute best two players for Manchester United this season. Deservedly, this trio of fresh Red Devils carry the hopes of the Three Lions into next summer.

Phil Jones, only 19 years old, has appeared in all 8 of United’s league matches, with 7 starts. Jones’ only appearance as a substitute was in United’s opener when he came on for a hobbling Rio Ferdinand in the 75th minute. With Ferdinand and Vidic finally returning from injuries, Jones has exceeded expectations in plugging the heart of the defense, a defense that is tied for the league best 6 goals allowed (City and Newcastle have also only conceded 6 goals).

Wayne Rooney won last season’s derby with a stunning bicycle kick (click to see)

In United’s opener, the Red Devils seemed destined for a 1-1 draw at the Hawthorns until Ashley Young forced a double-deflection own goal with 10 minutes remaining. Young, 26 years-old, was brought in from Aston Villa to play the wide areas, and he has done that spectacularly. Young has started 7 Premier League contests, scored 2 goals (not counting the own-goal winner), and served 5 assists. He even scored in his only Champions League appearance, a 90th minute leveler that saved United’s blushes against FC Basel.

Manchester City performed their own last-minute Champions League heroics this week. Kun Aguero knocked in the match winner with 15 seconds of stoppage time remaining to collect 3 immensely important points in the “group of death.” Although Aguero has earned most of the Blues' headlines since his arrival in England, City have significantly improved in squad depth at nearly every position.

Samir Nasri and Gael Clichy came over from Arsenal, and both are proven Premier League competitors. Nasri currently tops the Premier League with 6 assists, one ahead of United’s Ashley Young. Worth mentioning: City’s David Silva also has 5 assists this season, and he is City’s player of the campaign to this point. Clichy has added depth to the left full back position, but his impact has been far less noticeable on the stat sheet. Regardless, his Champions League and high-pressure experience bodes well for City’s development in the future.

City’s maturation has not only come about through new signings. A few weeks ago, Carlos Tevez refused to come on as a substitute in Manchester City’s loss to Bayern Munich. Until then, Tevez's role in the squad was a bit cloudy, but the Argentinean veteran was certainly ahead of Mario Balotelli in the pecking order. Balotelli had only made 2 substitute appearances in the Premier League to that point. The 21 year-old Italian prodigy seized the opportunity handed to him via Tevez’s freeze-out, and Balotelli has scored a goal in each of his last 4 appearances with the Citizens. Entering the derby, Super Mario is in form, working hard, (seemingly) mentally settled, and determined to keep his place in the first team.

Balotelli has a habit of having odd hairstyles…his current look (notice eyebrows)

With the Premier League’s top 3 goal scorers and top 3 assist men on the same pitch this Sunday, this Manchester derby promises to be a showcase of the best football England has to offer. Tune in on Sunday because this should be a good one.

Manchester City Official starters:
Hart, Clichy, Lescott, Kompany, Richards, Yaya, Barry, Milner, Silva, Balotelli, Aguero

Notes: Last weekend’s man of the match, Mario Balotelli, has been in form (4 goals in his last 4 appearances) as of late. As he was completing his European suspension against Villarreal, the enigmatic forward is also well rested and, thus, in line for a start. Kun Aguero should return to the starting XI after returning from injury as a substitute against Villarreal. Nigel De Jong, Gareth Barry, Yaya Toure must fight out the two holding midfielder places, but Yaya and Barry are expected to win out over De Jong. Clichy and Richards were both unused substitutes against Villarreal, so both should start against United. Richards was recovering from a knock but his presence on the bench likely meant he was prepared to play at midweek. Lescott and Kolo are interchangeable, but Lescott played a full 90 against Villarreal, so Kolo should have a chance. Vincent Kompany, David Silva, and Joe Hart are guaranteed starters. City have a deep squad, but this could be their best XI for a long time to come if Balotelli can keep his head and injuries do not take hold.

Manchester United Official Starters:
De Gea, Evra, Ferdinand, Smalling, Evans, Anderson, Fletcher, Nani, Young, Rooney, Welbeck

Notes: Danny Welbeck and Darren Fletcher were on the bench for the Champions League match but did not come on against Galati. Smalling will feature at right back with Rio Ferdinand & Johnny Evans in the center of the defense. Nani forced his way into the starting XI, although he did play a full 90 in Romania. Young is first choice in the wide areas, so even though Nani earned a start, it did not have an impact on Ashley Young’s place. Hernandez did not even manage a shot in 90 minutes against Galati, so Danny Welbeck earned the start.

Predictions and Picks:

Manchester United and Manchester City are the two best teams in the Premier League at this point, apologies to Chelsea. The Red Devils trail City by 2 points in the table, so a win would see United leap-frog City to the top of the table. Since this match was too close for me to call, I looked to AccuScore’s super computer to give us an idea of what would likely happen.

With Nani starting, AccuScore expects Manchester United to win on Sunday by the slightest of margins. Sergio Aguero was the most likely scorer in the match with a 52% chance of scoring. Wayne Rooney was a close 2nd with a 48% chance of scoring. Balotelli was 3rd likely to score at 36%, Welbeck was 4th at 26%, and Nani was 5th at 26%.

Of the 10,000 simulations AccuScore performed on the match, Manchester United won 38.4%, Manchester City won 36.2%, and the teams drew 25.4% of the time. At 3.600, City provide the best value pick in this contest.