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Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

Twitter @thejonlee

A dramatic Game 4 come-from-behind victory gave the Phillies a hammerlock on the NLCS.  The two two-run home runs hit in the eighth inning by Shane Victorino and Matt Stairs completely changed the tenor and outcome of this series.  If the Dodgers had won that game, they would have had all the momentum, and would have been a significant favorite according to AccuScore simulations.  Instead, Philadelphia is overwhelmingly likely to reach the World Series.

The Phillies are 85 percent favorites to be able to win at least one of the next three games.  The home team had won the previous 10 meetings between the two clubs, but that streak ended on Monday night.  Now Philadelphia has its ace Cole Hamels on the mound opposing Chad Billingsley in Game 5.  Hamels was shaky early in the opener, but found his groove and dominated the L.A. lineup.  Billingsley was flat-out terrible in his outing in Game 2, and will need to pitch to his potential for the Dodgers to have any chance.  He also has some extra scrutiny being placed on him because he did not retaliate after Brett Myers threw behind Manny Ramirez.  That led to Hiroki Kuroda buzzing several pitches inside and the benches subsequently clearing (although no punches were thrown) in Game 3.

Hamels gives Philadelphia a 53 percent edge in tonight’s game, the first time in the series that the road team has been favored.  A win of course would end the series.  If the NLCS were to shift back East, the Dodgers would actually be favored in both of the final games although it would still be a monumental task to win two games on the road.  Kuroda would be a 59 percent favorite against Myers in Philly, but he has pitched much better at Dodger Stadium this season as opposed to on the road.  If the series were to be pushed to a Game 7, the Dodgers would once again be favored with Lowe on the mound opposing either Jamie Moyer or Joe Blanton on short rest.  Suffice it to say that Philadelphia would not feel comfortable with either player pitching in a series decider.  Look for Charlie Manuel and the Phillies to pull out all the stops to get the win tonight to try to end the series early.