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Boise State was favored in AccuScore simulations over Oregon winning 69 percent of the time, so it was not surprising to see Oregon lose the game. What was surprising was the way it lost – anemic offense, horrendous performance on and off the field for “star” RB LaGarrett Blount.

Our analyst Jonathan Lee expected the Ducks would be very disappointing this year because of their losses on the offensive line. However, he probably did not expect to see Blount produce negative rushing yards. Reports were that Blount was very out of shape.

In pre-season forecasts Oregon was finishing second to USC in the Pac-10 with a very solid 28 percent chance of winning the Pac 10. AccuScore did not consider Oregon to be the second best team on paper, but thanks to a favorable schedule that has them at home vs California and USC, they were expected to do very well.

The Boise State loss does not impact their ability to win the conference, but the statistical performance from that game along with the likely suspension for at least a few games for LaGarrett Blount does.

Before the lousy performance this is how the Top 3 Pac 10 teams finished after 10,000 season simulations.

However, we re-simulated Oregon’s season properly weighting for the Boise State game data and with Blount suspended the rest of the season. The Ducks went from winning 50 percent of simulations at home vs USC to just 37 percent. Their chances vs California are just 51 percent, not nearly as high as their 70 percent prior to the Boise State game.

After the Boise State game, Oregon now has just a 13 percent chance of winning the Pac 10 even though the loss has no bearing on conference ranking.

There is time to turn things around. Oregon was much stronger at the end of the season than the start of the season. Jeremiah Masoli is not a turnover prone QB last year, but he had a couple turnovers last night. The loss of talent on the offensive line was expected to hurt the Ducks, but not nearly as much as it looked like on Thursday night.