DISCLAIMER:  I typed this up once, went to submit it, and the post disappeared.  This is the second time this has happened to me, both times being long posts.  If I come across as extremely pissed off, it's for this reason.  Normally I type this out in a Text Editor, or copy it before I hit send, but then it always works.  It's like the blog knows when I don't have the article copied, and only then does it erase what I have.  Now on to the blog, what I can remember writing that is.

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Yesterday wasn't exactlythe best day for me.  My picks in the NFL went 4-9-2, easily the worst week I've had.  How did this happen?  Well, if you're an armchair handicapper, who never makes picks but has the luxury of just bashing people when they are wrong and being silent when they are right, then you'd say it's because I'm bad at predicting games.  You don't have my complete history, but I can tell you I've never had a losing season in the NFL.  The only part you have was the 68% from week 8 to week 17 last season.  Normally I'm in the 53-60% range.  So it can't be a case of me being a bad handicapper.

Take a look at my new NCAA system.  I've had two winning weeks in a row with the system.  This system doesn't even have a track record, and I'm winning with it.  So what is wrong with the NFL system that has an amazing track record?

Nothing.

Consider the rules for the system from last season.  You bet against the 8-0 and 7-1 picks.  You bet on the underdog in close games, like 3-3-2, 4-3-1, and 4-4 games.  You bet on the system pick for everything in between, like 5-2-1, 5-3, 6-1-1, and 6-2.  How did this do yesterday?

-The 7-1 picks went 3-0.
-The underdogs in the close games went 5-0
-The system picks for the other games went 4-1-2.

If you're following the system, you go 0-3 on the 7-1 picks, but you end up with a 9-4-2 record.  The exact opposite of what I had.  I even commented that I was going with the system picks.  So what happened?

-I went with the anti 7-1 picks.  0-3
-Despite saying I was taking the dogs, I only took 2 of the underdogs in close games.  2-3.
-I took the opposite in the Green Bay and New England games.  2-3-2.

This was just bad decision making on my part.  However, what led to this decision?  Pressure.

As of right now there were 253 hits to the post yesterday.  You could probably assume that at least 20 people read the post, and that's assuming that each person clicked on the post 10 times or more.  It could be much more than that.  When I'm writing that post, what am I thinking?  "I've got to get these picks perfect.  I need to win for X amount of people."

Now I can handle most pressures.  I worked 45 hours a week in college as a manager while taking 18 credit hours of classes.  On a slow day the theatre I work at does 1000 customers, and on a busy day we do 4000 customers.  That stuff is easy.  What I have a problem with is making picks, knowing that people's money will be on these picks.

Really, it's a thankless job.  Sure, you get the occasional "Great picks this week!"  You are just as likely to get some idiot who never picks a game, criticizing your picks.  It's not like this doesn't add to the pressure.  When I see someone has gone to the lengths of tallying up my record, I can only think that I'm two weeks away from being abducted by this type of person, and ending up in a well, while the person shouts down "It puts the lotion on it's self!"  When I see a bad service, I leave.  If I have a problem with my cable provider, do I stick around and criticize every mistake they make?  Not unless I'm the type that dresses up like a woman, tucks my sack between my legs, and puts makeup on.  Like normal people, if I don't like the service, I leave.

So why do I do this?  Because it's expected of me.  Truthfully, I'd rather write about fantasy sports.  I spend most of my sports time on fantasy, and  smaller percentage on handicapping.  I'm in 6 fantasy football leagues, and two fantasy baseball leagues right now.  I'm in the finals of one baseball league, and holding a 12 point lead in my other roto league with one week left.  I wouldn't exactly go as far to say that I'm a fantasy guru...actually, scratch that.  I'm a fantasy guru.

That doesn't mean I'm bad at handicapping, you've probably seen my work before these last three weeks.  It also doesn't mean that I don't like handicapping.  What I don't like is worrying that this past weekend will happen.  I try to make my picks perfect now, knowing that a lot of people are taking them, and hoping to avoid a day like yesterday.  In a strange way, yesterday was the best thing that could have happened.

If I can lose like that when I'm not taking the system, then I'm better off taking the system that went 68% last season.  I was looking to exploit the wrong system picks in hopes of doing better than I was doing.  I did this last season too, towards the end of the season.  Now it's back to the basics.  From this point forward, I'm going with the system picks 100%, except for when there is an injury that affects the system (like a QB going down.)  The system went 9-4-2 yesterday.  I just didn't go with it.  That will change.

I'm sorry to the people who took the picks yesterday.  I know that is what you are here for.  It's the reason that I write the picks, because when I write a fantasy article, it will get maybe 100 hits, but when I write an NFL article, it will get 300-400 hits.  I'm going to give you what you want, because I don't want to take time to write something if it only receives 30 hits.  From here on out, I'm going with the system picks, and it's going to be a great year.  I hope you're with me for it.

The best place to start is tonight.  Tennessee is a 7-1 pick.  The 7-1 picks went 3-0 yesterday.  Normally these are contrarian plays because these are the teams that we all know are much better than their opponents.  Vegas knows that we know this, so they set the line in favor of the opponents.  These are the "trap games."  However, early in the season, these might be the best games to take, because I doubt many people thought that Dallas was that much better than Chicago last night, and people probably aren't thinking Tennessee is this much better than New Orleans.  Earlier in the week I said:

"Week three was my prediction for Vince Young tearing his ACL and falling to the Madden curse.  However, I think he leads the Titans to a win over the over-rated Saints.  We all want the Saints to do well because of what happened in New Orleans, and they were the feel good story of last season, but they allow 125 rushing yards per game, and the Titans lead the league in rushing.  I don't think the Saints have as good of a passing game as people think they do, and Tennessee has done well stopping the run, which will lessen the impact of McAllister and Bush."

Tonight I'm going with the system trend for the week, and with my thoughts earlier in the week, and I'm taking Tennessee to cover, plus I'm taking them on the moneyline to win outright.

My Picks:  Tennessee +4.5 and Tennessee ML +170

Good luck to everyone tonight!