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May 25
2008

What to expect from Kershaw

Posted by twilliams in Tim Williamsfantasy baseballClayton KershawAccuScore

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Clayton Kershaw has been called up to make his debut today against the St. Louis Cardinals.  If he is available in any of your leagues (unlikely) grab him as soon as possible.  If you already picked him up, make sure he's in your starting rotation today.

AccuScore projects Kershaw to go 6.2 innings, allow seven hits, three earned runs, two walks, and three strikeouts in the majority of simulations, with a 53 percent chance of a win.  Kershaw may not have things that easy today against the Cardinals.

St. Louis has scored the fifth most runs against left handersthis year, with the third best on base percentage.  They rank in the middle of the pack for strikeouts against lefties, which is why we could see that AccuScore projected strikeout number end up higher.

To make matters worse for the rookie southpaw, he is going up against Todd Wellemeyer, who has been excellent this year, and has yet to allow more than two runs in a start in May, with a 1.12 WHIP over that stretch.

I've got Kershaw in two leagues, and I'm starting him in both.  Granted this isn't the ideal matchup for the highly touted prospect's debut, and most of the time a rookie's first start is a little rocky, rather than the Max Scherzer type of debut.  Fantasy baseball is about taking risks.  With Kershaw, and with his potential, you have to take the chance with him today.  You grabbed him at least few weeks ago.  You've held him on your bench, possibly passing up on a lot of other waiver wire pickups.  That pretty much makes him a must start for his first outing today.  I'm just hoping that outing will be more of the AccuScore projection, and less of the "Cardinals history against lefties" type of numbers.



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