I would say my own opinion matches AccuScore Simulation forecasts around 6 out of 10 times.  In 3 of the 4 disagreements, the difference can be tied directly to AccuScore relying 100% on past performance statistics and myself relying on what I saw recently with my own eyes from the teams and players involved.  In these cases there are players involved that don't have a long track record of performance and the simulations simply cannot make a great judgment on their performance as a result.

Rarely, maybe 1 in 10, is there a case where the key players involved have a long track record of performance and I strongly disagree with the forecast.  This week's monumental clash between the Patriots and Colts is one of those cases.

Here's why...

1. The Patriots lost a huge lead in last year's AFC Championship Game because their linebackers and secondary were tired.  They added depth and speed to the Linebacker position by adding Adalius Thomas.  Rodney Harrison did not play in the game and he's back now. 

1. The Patriots lost the huge lead because they couldn't run the ball in the 2^nd half.  This year's Patriots don't need to run the ball at all.  A short pass to Wes Welker or Kevin Faulk will average over 5 yards per attempt (6 yard pass x Brady's 90% completion on these short passes) which is much better than running the ball.

1. Prior to their second half collapse it looked like the Patriots were still in Peyton's head.  Assante Samuel intercepted him for a TD.

1. The Patriots passing offense is mathematically impossible to stop.  You have to double team Moss and not only can he beat the double team there are simply not enough skilled defenders around to stop the other receivers - Stallworth, Welker, Ben Watson (likely to play), Maroney or Faulk, ... Vrabel.  The Colts offense is obviously a great one, but the Patriots aren't at a mathematical disadvantage now that they addressed point 1 above - they have defender(s) who can contain each Colts weapon.

My gut and my eyes tell me that if given 12 possessions, the Patriots will score 5 touchdowns and 2 field goals, minimally.  Remember, they racked up 34 points in the AFC Championship Game with Jabar Gaffney as their only reliable wide receiver!  This is against the Colts playing with Bob Sanders!  If that Patriots team can score 34 in Indianapolis what do you think this year's Patriots can do?

I say Patriots will score at least 41 points.

Now the Colts are awesome.  I think they are definitely better than last year's Super Bowl team.  That said, I don't think they should stick with the ‘recommended' strategy of relying on Joseph Addai to run the ball, control the clock, keep Brady off the field, hope you can sack Brady multiple times, etc.

That all sounds good, but if I have arguably the greatest Quarterback ever (Peyton Manning) facing someone who is not only seeking to dethrone him this year, but also crush his single season TD record, I would look Peyton in the eye and say it's 100% up to him.

I would try to surprise the Patriots and just have Peyton air it out all over the place.  No huddle for at least the entire first half.  Every play, every decision should rely on the arm and brain of Peyton Manning. 

I would have this battle be like the movie ‘300' and have my best leader try to beat an impossible to beat army like the Patriots.   I would also employ defensive strategies like the Spartans did.  Instead of playing traditionally - pass rush with Freeney to get pressure on Brady, I would accept the fact that you can't expect to sack him 3 times and knock him down 6 more times.  The Patriots are too good to allow you to do that.

I would scrap the Cover 2.

I would literally pass rush 1 guy.  I would leave 2 other guys in the box to handle the running game.

I would drop back 4 DBs and 4 LBs into pass coverage and turn the mathematical disadvantage to a mathematical advantage (more defenders than offensive players). 

I would use the rule requiring a minimum number of offensive lineman to my advantage.

Traditional thinking will work against traditional offenses.  The Patriots are on a different level than seen before and it requires a totally different way of thinking.  Sort of like Rocky Balboa fighting right-handed in Rocky II.

I do expect things to end for the Colts like it did for the Spartans in 300, but I think this strategy gives the Colts the best chance to win.

So the Colts are good for 3 TDs and 2 FGs - 27 points. 

My prediction:  New England 41, Indianapolis Colts 27