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Sep 25
2007
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Week 4 Fantasy Football PreviewPosted by twilliams in Tim Williams, NFL, Football, Fantasy |
Remember way back at the start of the NFL season when every fantasy league was decided by who it was who took LaDanian Tomlinson? Remember when Steven Jackson was the only other good running back in the draft? Remember Larry Johnson being called the #3 guy by most people (myself included.) Remember when no one else had a shot if you were outside of the top 3? Yeah, have fun with Brian Westbrook. LT owners are going to have fun with the title. So long ago that was.
Fast forward three weeks later, and we've got a different story. LT isn't the mega-star everyone thought they drafted. Steven Jackson is injured, and wasn't doing that well before he got hurt. Larry Johnson is doing horrible, with the only hopes of turning it around coming after this week. The other first round guys? Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker? They're studs. Parker leads the league in rushing, Westbrook is coming off of one of the best fantasy performances we will see this season by a running back, if not the best performance, and Frank Gore and Joseph Addai both look like solid #1 running backs.
Then you've got the class of guys drafted after the first round. Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson (the good one), LaMont Jordan, and Marion Barber. Lynch looks like an absolute stud, putting up decent numbers against top defenses. Peterson is the Vikings offense, and is a stud #2, and can be considered a #1 guy. Barber is on pace for about 734 touchdowns this season. And who would have thought that LaMont Jordan would be the #2 ranked fantasy running back after week three? I called Jordan my sleeper, and said that he would be a good guy to have, considering him a top #2, but never did I think he would be this good. I don't think he'll maintain this pace, but he's going to be a great #2 option easily for the rest of the season.
But come back off the ledge, LT, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson owners. Tomlinson has gone against some good defenses the first three weeks. His quarterback is starting to show signs of life. He's got an easier road ahead, starting this week with Kansas City. LT and the Chargers should turn things around. Jackson is hurt, but it should only be for one week. After that he has games against Arizona twice, Cleveland, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. Not to mention that he rushed for 115 yards and caught for 18 yards in his last game before going out. He'll pass Sammy Morris on the ranking lists in no time.
That leaves Larry Johnson, who is this year's version of LaMont Jordan, the guy who single handedly killed about 3/4ths of my fantasy teams last season. I will admit, I recently took the position as Larry Johnson's official apologist. It pays well, and we get to bash coaches after wins, which is always nice. Let's take a look at Johnson's opponents.
First, we have the Houston Texans, who held him to 8 points in week one. We know now that the Texans have a pretty decent defense, allowing just 76.7 yards per game. Next came the Chicago Bears, who held LJ to 8 points. Still, LJ ran for 3.77 yards per carry against these teams, but only saw 26 carries combined. Then the meltdown in Minnesota, where Johnson ran for less than 2 yards a carry. To his credit, Minnesota has had the best rushing defense for the past two seasons, so you can't blame him entirely. Johnson may have some trouble this week with San Diego. I'm probably benching him for Thomas Jones. However, after this week he's got Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Oakland for the next three weeks. The best part about LJ is that if you manage to make it to the playoffs with him on your team, you've got Denver, Detroit, the Jets, and the Titans in the final four weeks. Take out the Titans and those are some pretty favorable match ups.
I think at this point it is safe to say that there aren't any single running backs above the pack, but that doesn't mean the guys we thought were in the top class are suddenly bad. Their value is still big, just not what we thought. I think LT turns it around this week, I think LJ turns it around next week, and I think Steven Jackson has started to turn it around, and will resume when he returns. If you've got them, hold on to them. If you don't have them, I'd still try and trade for them. They're only getting cheaper and cheaper as the disappointing weeks go by.
Now, the guys you should start and sit for week 4. Realize that I'm going to avoid the obvious, like Tom Brady against Cincinnati. If you're playing someone who has Brady at Cincinnati, just quit. You've already lost this week.
Quarterbacks: I think that Tony Romo has now moved to the "must start" category. I'd rank Romo, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer as the only guys you start regardless of who they are playing. Start Donovan McNabb against the Giants. He should have a good week against a defense that allows 32 points a game. Philip Rivers should have another good week against the Chiefs. I like Matt Hasselbeck to have a good week against the 49ers. If you're looking for sleepers, I'd say Trent Green against Oakland, and Chad Pennington against Buffalo.
Don't start Jon Kitna against the Bears, unless you get positive points for turnovers. It's also time to jump off the Derek Anderson band wagon, as his easy schedule is up. Matt Schaub is moving up my list of reliable quarterbacks, but until he gets more than one healthy receiver, I'd keep him on the bench. I'd also stay away from Ben Roethlisberger, mainly because the guy who is largely responsible for Ben Roethlisberger's growth in the NFL is now the head coach of Arizona. The guy who was largely responsible for making the Steelers offensive line as good as it is? He's also in Arizona. Oh yeah, Pittsburgh plays Arizona this week. I'm staying away.
Running Backs: Thomas Jones had a good week last week, and should do very well against the horrible Buffalo run defense. Willis McGahee has been a disappointment this season, but should have a big game against Cleveland. Expect another big game from my boy LaMont Jordan. Marshawn Lynch is probably my start of the week, going up against the Jets and their horrible run defense. Denver didn't look good against the run last week, making Marion Barber and Julius Jones options. I'd say Barber is a solid start, and Jones is a great flex option. Lawrence Maroney and Sammy Morris should also have big games, going up against Cincinnati and their horrible defense. Morris would be my sleeper play, since he gets the goal line carries.
Stay away from Larry Johnson for another week. Next week he should break out. For those of you who bought in to the Jamal Lewis hype from his big game over Cincinnati, I hope last week showed that he's not a good option. Don't go for him here against Baltimore. Stay away from the Packers running backs. Not only is this an uncertain situation, but they play Minnesota. Rudi Johnson is another guy who has been a disappointment. I watched the Bengals game on NFL Replay, and Kenny Watson looks like the guy who should be starting in Cincinnati. Johnson could barely get past the line of scrimmage. Stay away from Edgerrin James. The Steelers haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher since 1972. Actually, it's 2005, and even that sounds made up, but it's true.
Wide Receivers: If there's anything I hope you've taken from my fantasy articles, it's this: Get Brandon Marshall! He's the #17 ranked receiver and is owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, even after having a huge 13 point game this past week, which was one yard away from being a 19 point game. Indianapolis showed that they weren't invincible on defense, and he should be a good option for you. Chris Chambers is also a good start, going up against the Raiders. I'd also go with the Chicago receivers. They take on the Lions, and Rex Grossman is no longer the starting QB, so the passes will be going to the Bears in this game, and not the other team. Roddy White is a good option too. I think Atlanta will be down this week against Houston, and they don't really have any one else to throw deep to. My big pick would be Santonio Holmes, especially if Hines Ward is out, which is looking very likely.
I'm staying away from any Houston receivers until Andre Johnson returns. The only exception is tight end Owen Daniels. I don't think Kevin Curtis repeats last week's performance, so just remember his value. 47 points after 3 weeks, and 40 of them came last week. Don't over-value him. Detroit is without Calvin Johnson, leaving Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald as their #2 and #3 guys, and leaving Roy Williams double covered. Stay away from the Lions, including Williams if you have a good replacement.
Tight Ends: I think that with Pittsburgh passing to tight ends more often, Heath Miller could end the season at the top of the list for tight end points. You heard me right. 4 touchdown passes to tight ends in 3 games, and Ward has had injury problems for the past two seasons, leaving Miller as the top receiver in Pittsburgh. Some sleepers that I like are Owen Daniels, who is the only receiver the Texans have, Jeff King, who had a nice game last week, and Greg Olson, who should benefit from the bad Lions defense and the switch to Brian Griese.
Kickers: Jeff Reed is this year's Robbie Gould. Get him if he's available, especially in this game, which will either be high scoring by the Steelers, or will have a ton of field goals. I could see a 14 point day for Reed. Nick Folk is a must own as the Cowboys' kicker. He will put up points. Speaking of Robbie Gould, he's a good option this week as well. With the exception of Gould, these guys are largely un-owned, just going to show that kickers are a dime a dozen in fantasy football.
Defenses: I believe that the Texans are good enough to be a top 12 defense. They play the Falcons, who have a bad QB situation, one marginally good receiver, and a bad offensive line. I can even see them getting a touchdown. I like the Packers as a potential top 5 defense, and they're owned in just over 50% of leagues. They have the Vikings, another team not sure what they're doing at QB. The Cowboys are a good option, especially since Marc Bulger has been struggling and Steven Jackson is out.
Good luck to everyone this week! Feel free to leave any comments with fantasy questions and I'll respond as soon as I can with my input on the situation.
Fast forward three weeks later, and we've got a different story. LT isn't the mega-star everyone thought they drafted. Steven Jackson is injured, and wasn't doing that well before he got hurt. Larry Johnson is doing horrible, with the only hopes of turning it around coming after this week. The other first round guys? Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, Brian Westbrook, Willie Parker? They're studs. Parker leads the league in rushing, Westbrook is coming off of one of the best fantasy performances we will see this season by a running back, if not the best performance, and Frank Gore and Joseph Addai both look like solid #1 running backs.
Then you've got the class of guys drafted after the first round. Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson (the good one), LaMont Jordan, and Marion Barber. Lynch looks like an absolute stud, putting up decent numbers against top defenses. Peterson is the Vikings offense, and is a stud #2, and can be considered a #1 guy. Barber is on pace for about 734 touchdowns this season. And who would have thought that LaMont Jordan would be the #2 ranked fantasy running back after week three? I called Jordan my sleeper, and said that he would be a good guy to have, considering him a top #2, but never did I think he would be this good. I don't think he'll maintain this pace, but he's going to be a great #2 option easily for the rest of the season.
But come back off the ledge, LT, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson owners. Tomlinson has gone against some good defenses the first three weeks. His quarterback is starting to show signs of life. He's got an easier road ahead, starting this week with Kansas City. LT and the Chargers should turn things around. Jackson is hurt, but it should only be for one week. After that he has games against Arizona twice, Cleveland, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. Not to mention that he rushed for 115 yards and caught for 18 yards in his last game before going out. He'll pass Sammy Morris on the ranking lists in no time.
That leaves Larry Johnson, who is this year's version of LaMont Jordan, the guy who single handedly killed about 3/4ths of my fantasy teams last season. I will admit, I recently took the position as Larry Johnson's official apologist. It pays well, and we get to bash coaches after wins, which is always nice. Let's take a look at Johnson's opponents.
First, we have the Houston Texans, who held him to 8 points in week one. We know now that the Texans have a pretty decent defense, allowing just 76.7 yards per game. Next came the Chicago Bears, who held LJ to 8 points. Still, LJ ran for 3.77 yards per carry against these teams, but only saw 26 carries combined. Then the meltdown in Minnesota, where Johnson ran for less than 2 yards a carry. To his credit, Minnesota has had the best rushing defense for the past two seasons, so you can't blame him entirely. Johnson may have some trouble this week with San Diego. I'm probably benching him for Thomas Jones. However, after this week he's got Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Oakland for the next three weeks. The best part about LJ is that if you manage to make it to the playoffs with him on your team, you've got Denver, Detroit, the Jets, and the Titans in the final four weeks. Take out the Titans and those are some pretty favorable match ups.
I think at this point it is safe to say that there aren't any single running backs above the pack, but that doesn't mean the guys we thought were in the top class are suddenly bad. Their value is still big, just not what we thought. I think LT turns it around this week, I think LJ turns it around next week, and I think Steven Jackson has started to turn it around, and will resume when he returns. If you've got them, hold on to them. If you don't have them, I'd still try and trade for them. They're only getting cheaper and cheaper as the disappointing weeks go by.
Now, the guys you should start and sit for week 4. Realize that I'm going to avoid the obvious, like Tom Brady against Cincinnati. If you're playing someone who has Brady at Cincinnati, just quit. You've already lost this week.
Quarterbacks: I think that Tony Romo has now moved to the "must start" category. I'd rank Romo, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer as the only guys you start regardless of who they are playing. Start Donovan McNabb against the Giants. He should have a good week against a defense that allows 32 points a game. Philip Rivers should have another good week against the Chiefs. I like Matt Hasselbeck to have a good week against the 49ers. If you're looking for sleepers, I'd say Trent Green against Oakland, and Chad Pennington against Buffalo.
Don't start Jon Kitna against the Bears, unless you get positive points for turnovers. It's also time to jump off the Derek Anderson band wagon, as his easy schedule is up. Matt Schaub is moving up my list of reliable quarterbacks, but until he gets more than one healthy receiver, I'd keep him on the bench. I'd also stay away from Ben Roethlisberger, mainly because the guy who is largely responsible for Ben Roethlisberger's growth in the NFL is now the head coach of Arizona. The guy who was largely responsible for making the Steelers offensive line as good as it is? He's also in Arizona. Oh yeah, Pittsburgh plays Arizona this week. I'm staying away.
Running Backs: Thomas Jones had a good week last week, and should do very well against the horrible Buffalo run defense. Willis McGahee has been a disappointment this season, but should have a big game against Cleveland. Expect another big game from my boy LaMont Jordan. Marshawn Lynch is probably my start of the week, going up against the Jets and their horrible run defense. Denver didn't look good against the run last week, making Marion Barber and Julius Jones options. I'd say Barber is a solid start, and Jones is a great flex option. Lawrence Maroney and Sammy Morris should also have big games, going up against Cincinnati and their horrible defense. Morris would be my sleeper play, since he gets the goal line carries.
Stay away from Larry Johnson for another week. Next week he should break out. For those of you who bought in to the Jamal Lewis hype from his big game over Cincinnati, I hope last week showed that he's not a good option. Don't go for him here against Baltimore. Stay away from the Packers running backs. Not only is this an uncertain situation, but they play Minnesota. Rudi Johnson is another guy who has been a disappointment. I watched the Bengals game on NFL Replay, and Kenny Watson looks like the guy who should be starting in Cincinnati. Johnson could barely get past the line of scrimmage. Stay away from Edgerrin James. The Steelers haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher since 1972. Actually, it's 2005, and even that sounds made up, but it's true.
Wide Receivers: If there's anything I hope you've taken from my fantasy articles, it's this: Get Brandon Marshall! He's the #17 ranked receiver and is owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues, even after having a huge 13 point game this past week, which was one yard away from being a 19 point game. Indianapolis showed that they weren't invincible on defense, and he should be a good option for you. Chris Chambers is also a good start, going up against the Raiders. I'd also go with the Chicago receivers. They take on the Lions, and Rex Grossman is no longer the starting QB, so the passes will be going to the Bears in this game, and not the other team. Roddy White is a good option too. I think Atlanta will be down this week against Houston, and they don't really have any one else to throw deep to. My big pick would be Santonio Holmes, especially if Hines Ward is out, which is looking very likely.
I'm staying away from any Houston receivers until Andre Johnson returns. The only exception is tight end Owen Daniels. I don't think Kevin Curtis repeats last week's performance, so just remember his value. 47 points after 3 weeks, and 40 of them came last week. Don't over-value him. Detroit is without Calvin Johnson, leaving Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald as their #2 and #3 guys, and leaving Roy Williams double covered. Stay away from the Lions, including Williams if you have a good replacement.
Tight Ends: I think that with Pittsburgh passing to tight ends more often, Heath Miller could end the season at the top of the list for tight end points. You heard me right. 4 touchdown passes to tight ends in 3 games, and Ward has had injury problems for the past two seasons, leaving Miller as the top receiver in Pittsburgh. Some sleepers that I like are Owen Daniels, who is the only receiver the Texans have, Jeff King, who had a nice game last week, and Greg Olson, who should benefit from the bad Lions defense and the switch to Brian Griese.
Kickers: Jeff Reed is this year's Robbie Gould. Get him if he's available, especially in this game, which will either be high scoring by the Steelers, or will have a ton of field goals. I could see a 14 point day for Reed. Nick Folk is a must own as the Cowboys' kicker. He will put up points. Speaking of Robbie Gould, he's a good option this week as well. With the exception of Gould, these guys are largely un-owned, just going to show that kickers are a dime a dozen in fantasy football.
Defenses: I believe that the Texans are good enough to be a top 12 defense. They play the Falcons, who have a bad QB situation, one marginally good receiver, and a bad offensive line. I can even see them getting a touchdown. I like the Packers as a potential top 5 defense, and they're owned in just over 50% of leagues. They have the Vikings, another team not sure what they're doing at QB. The Cowboys are a good option, especially since Marc Bulger has been struggling and Steven Jackson is out.
Good luck to everyone this week! Feel free to leave any comments with fantasy questions and I'll respond as soon as I can with my input on the situation.
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