Every week there are a few lines that in the NFL that you just have to bet.  Last week I found two that seemed to good to be true, but they weren't.  For some reason, Pittsburgh was only favored by 5.5 over Cleveland and New England was only 6.5 point favorites over the Jets.

 Here are my picks for this weeks games:

Cincinnati @ Cleveland - Over/Under 41.5 (Over)

It's pretty easy.  The Steelers and Browns last week put up 41 total points.  Cincinnati has a better offense than Pittsburgh.  Cincinnati's defense is notnearly as good as Pittsburgh's.  The end result: points and lots of them.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (NO -3.5)

The Saints were embarrassed last week.  The Bucs played well enough to get a 6 point lead before they realized that they're no good.  They promptly played the next 45 minutes without scoring and gave up 20 points.  New Orleans is a better team than Seattle.  Tampa's home field advantage is negligible.  The Saints will win by double digits and prove that they're just as good as we all thought they'd be.

Dallas @ Miami (DAL -3.5)

Another road favorite who's not favored highly enough.  Miami's offense is putrid.  They played a very mediocre defense at Washington last week and only put up 13 points.  Dallas can score against anybody.  Don't look for a repeat of last week's offensive output, but don't look for much of an increase in Miami's.  Another road team that wins by 10+ points.