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Sep 06
2007

Week 1 Fantasy Blog

Posted by oh_steve in Untagged 

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I scanned the AccuScore Fantasy Rankings and here are a few players that are expected to have especially big games this weekend.  In addition to citing a few of the "Duh, of course he'll be huge" players, I'll try to point to some possible sleepers for those of you who got screwed in your fantasy draft.

 

JOSEPH ADDAI - As the primary RB on the Colts playing against the Saints I can't imagine Addai not getting over 100 yards rushing and receiving and at least 1 TD.  In simulations he's averaging 150 yards and 1.1 TDs.  Looks likeAddai could be the top performer of the week.

 

PEYTON MANNING - I could imagine Drew Brees passing for more TDs and Yards than Peyton this year, but in Week 1 I expect Peyton to show who's boss.  This obviously translates to MARVIN HARRISON leading receivers in fantasy production in Week 1.

 

BRIAN WESTBROOK - He's a great security blanket for Donovan McNabb to pass to out of the backfield and a proven runner when he's healthy. It's Week 1 so I could imagine a huge game at Green Bay. The Packer defense is improving, but Westbrook should have a ton of touches (17+ carries, 5+ receptions).  Even if his yards per touch isn't stellar, he should produce plenty.

 

DAUNTE CULPEPPER???? - This is a tough one.  First, Lane Kiffin is pulling a Charlie Weiss not even saying who's going to start.  Based on their final preseason performance AccuScore has Culpepper.  I think he'll be able to pass for plenty of yards against that Detroit defense.  The Lions have plenty of weapons on offense, but passing a ton isn't conducive to controlling time of possession or having a lot of long, time consuming drives.  I think the Raider offense will be on the field plenty with LaMont Jordan running better this year and Culpepper scrambling effectively.  Of course, if he doesn't even start, then I just have to say ignore me.

 

TRAVIS HENRY - Assuming he's healthy, it now looks like Mike Bell could be falling out of favor which should give plenty of carries to Henry.  Buffalo lost their defensive leader London Fletcher and I think Henry will run wild. 

 

DAVID GARRARD - Jacksonville is a good team.  For Coach Del Rio to pull the late switcheroo for Garrard indicates to me that he clearly has been better than Leftwich.  Plus, I really like running QBs and I figure a match-up with Vince Young could inspire Garrard to show that he's no slouch running the ball either.  I expect 30 rushing yards from Garrard and those extra 3 fantasy points make him a quality sleeper.  Plus, Tennessee's defense is still in the bottom half of the league against the pass and rush.

 

ALEX SMITH - After doubting Smith's potential all off-season I do think that for this week Smith will play well.  Arizona has a few good individual defensive players like Adrian Wilson, but one of the reasons why Wilson can get a ton of tackles, sacks and interceptions as a Safety is the Cardinal defense is on the field too much not stopping anyone.  With a new coaching staff in Arizona the SF Offense should be further along executing their offense than the Arizona defense.

TJ HOUSHMANDZADEH - No Chris Henry leaves a ton of passes to Houshmandzadeh and Chad Johnson.  Chris McAllister usually does a good job covering #1 WR Chad Johnson.  Baltimore CB Samari Rolle DOES NOT do a good job covering Houshmandzadeh.  I think TJ will get 12+ balls thrown in his direction and even if Baltimore does a great job covering him he'll still be good for 6 receptions and 75 yards.

 

BRAYLON EDWARDS - Even though I don't think he'll end up in the Top 10 this week, I know that Cleveland is always competitive against AFC North competition, like Pittsburgh. As a massive doubter of Jamal Lewis, I think Cleveland will realize that they have to rely on passing the ball to move the ball.  This will lead to multiple Charlie Frye interceptions (which is why Frye isn't on this list), but also 2 big plays from Edwards and 3 or 4 short completions.  If Cleveland ends up scoring a TD there's a good shot it will be Edwards.

 

DONTE' STALLWORTH - Randy Moss is not on the Patriots injury list indicating he's healthy.  The Jets are going to have to focus on defending Moss which will leave the speedy Stallworth open for some big plays.  If your league gives bonus points for long reception TDs I'd give Stallworth a look.  I never think there is a good chance of someone scoring on a 50 yd TD, but to win a fantasy league you gotta go with some guys who get you 4 pts on a bad day, but 20 pts every 4 games.

 

MATT STOVER - Kickers are a total afterthought and 99.9% of you only have 1 kicker on the roster and so anyone who owns Stover is going to start him, but nonetheless I'll list Stover here.  I don't think the Ravens offense is looking very good after the PreSeason.  Scoring in the Red Zone looks like it'll be a challenge once again, at least to start the season.  I don't think the Bengals defense is good enough to stop the Ravens from getting into field goal range.  I expect at least 2 field goals, with a potential for a 50 yarder from Stover this week.



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