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Dec 29
2007

WEEK 17 PICK 5

Posted by DAMAN in Untagged 

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Attention Goldmembers: I want everyone to know that just because I have hit on 70% of my picks since the Thursday game in week 14, week 17 is still a treacherous landmine.  Teams are evaluating for next year, or resting players for the playoffs, or have decided to mail it in, so picking five games is tougher than any other week(including week 1 when all you have to go on is reputation and a limited action preseason), but here goes.  Kansas City is 4-11 and has lost 8 straight, but they have not yet mailed it in.  Trailing 19-0 in the second quarter last week against the Lions, theybattled back to within a converted 2-point conversion of tying the game.  The Chiefs and Jets are fairly similar in talent level and I just do not believe the Jets are a touchdown better than anybody, so take Kansas City +6.5.  Cincinnati has shown improvement the second half of the season and will be motivated not to lose to a 1 win Dolphin team.  Palmer, Chad, TJ, and Kenny Watson will have more than enough to cover a 1 point spread.  Take Cincinnati -1.  St. Louis is actually healthy, and assuming that they play everybody, Bulger will tear apart the Cardinal secondary.  Gus Frerotte nearly beat the Cardinals earlier in the year, and Bulger, Jackson, Holt, Bruce and Co. will get the job done this time.  I actually think the Rams COULD win this game outright, but Arizona is playing for a .500 season, so take the points to be safe.  Take St. Louis +6.  Seattle will be resting people for sure, but come on, they are playing the Falcons.  I know that Atlanta almost beat Arizona last week, but that has as much to do with Arizona as it does with Atlanta.  Besides, Seneca Wallace is a very capable backup and will be making the most of his time on the field, as will Maurice Morris.  I think even the Seattle JV can beat Atlanta.  Take Seattle to win outright.(It will cost you 110 to win 100 if you take the 1 point, whereas you can win 102 off of 100 if you leave the point behind.  It's the smarter play)  San Diego will be playing their starters until this gets out of hand.  The Chargers know the difference between the 3 seed and the 4.  The 3 seed gets either Tennesee or Cleveland in the first round instead of the Jaguars, and in round 2 you travel to Indianapolia instead of New England.  Since San Diego has already beaten Tennessee, probably does not fear Cleveland, and has beaten the Colts, not to mention losing to Jacksonville and getting trounced by the Patriots, trust me they want the 3 seed.  LT has announced that he wants to win the rushing title also, so expect San Diego to leave him in for at least 2.5 quarters and the same for Rivers(not to mention do you really think Billy Volek is a downgrade?).  Oakland is starting JaMarcus "turnover" Russell for the first time and, other than a division rivalry, has no motivation in this game.  Take San Diego -9.  Thanks for a successful year goldmembers, and we will see you in the playoffs.  Also, be sure to check back on my blog for the 2007 team by team year in review starting some time next week and continuing until the day after the Super Bowl.

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NFL DWG said:

 
Hey, nice picks this week. How come no prediction on the WAS@DAL game or the TEN@IND game, I think those two games are locks for the skins and the titans. Both are playing against teams that have locked up byes and have injured players. I dont buy into the whole thing about people saying the Colts will beat the Titans with their backups, the Titans ALWAYS play the Colts hard and never lose by much. They will cover that one OUTRIGHT. and Washington will destroy "BRAD JOHNSON" and all the other 2's for the cowboys, no competition.
December 29, 2007

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