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Dec 01
2007
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WEEK 13 PICK 5Posted by DAMAN in Untagged |
OK sport, listen up: Gabriel Gold is back, I mean it, I'm truly back. Need some proof do ya, well here it is: I am a handicapper with heart and I know that if I struggle, it stands to reason that you struggle as well. That, my loyal followers, is why for one week only I will offer you a money back guarantee(again I know I am not charging you yet, but in the spirit of preparation for when I do, this is how it will go). When you go through a slump like I am in now, missing 5 of my last 7, you have to do something to snap out of it and since I work best under pressure, this is what I have come up with. I will hit on at least 5 out of 6 or your money back. These six picks I am referring to are this pick 5 plus the Monday nighter and, just to spice it up a little, if you have a question on a game that I don't mention, I will do my best to respond to your comments or questions before that game starts if you leave a comment here on my blog. First pick for my dig deep guarantee is Washington -6 over Buffalo. Just as I am digging deep this week, I believe the Redskins will do the same. Jason Campbell, throw last week out, is emerging as a reliable quarterback, Clinton Portis is averaging 109 yards a game over his last four, and this week they get the #31 Buffalo defense. Washington's defense, ranked 9th, will be going against the #31 Bills offense which has made another quarterback change this week. Edwards will get the nod this week and look to improve on his 3-1 record as a starter, but don't let that record fool you. He beat the 2-9 Jets twice and 4-7 Baltimore while throwing just 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions. Edwards' job is also more difficult this time around as he doesn't have Marshawn Lynch to hand off to, nor does he have veteran backup Anthony Thomas, but rather 26 year old rookie Fred Jackson. I think that Washington will play inspired ball this week and pick up an easy victory over a banged up, low talent team in the Buffalo Bills. Washington 24-Buffalo 10. Next pick: Indianapolis -6.5 over Jacksonville. Indianapolis, sticking with this week's theme, must dig deep against a tough divisional opponent in the Jaguars. Indianapolis is looking to take control of the AFC South and reestablish themselves as the Patriots' stiffest competition. Peyton Manning has suffered from the injuries to his receiving corps and has actually been outplayed by his counterpart David Garrard. While Harrison is still out, Gonzalez, Wayne, and Clark should provide Manning, whose blindside will be protected by the returning Tony Ugoh, with plenty of weapons with which to dismantle the leagues 28th ranked Jaguar pass defense. I see Manning having a big game as they rely a little more heavily on him this week due to Joseph Addai still healing from his injuries, and the fact that Jacksonville is still without the suspended Marcus Stroud for one more game and leading tackler Mike Peterson, which means they will have a tougher time gettin to Manning. When Jacksonville has the ball look for a heavy dose of MJD and Fred Taylor as they try to keep Manning off the field. The Colts' run defense is only 16th, but they give up just 3.9 yards a carry which is 11th. Garrard has been outstanding, but the Jaguars have not put much pressure on him as they are 1 of only 6 teams that have run more times than they have thrown this year, which has made them the #3 rushing attack despite only averaging 4.2 yards a crack. I believe that this is the week that Garrard throws his first pick of the season, the Colts are tied for 4th with 15 interceptions on the year and Jacksonville's 23rd ranked defense will be surrendering enough points that the offense be forced out of their strong suit, the running game, as they will have to play catch up all day. Indianapolis 31-Jacksonville 20. Next pick: Arizona -1 over Cleveland. Arizona is coming off a humiliating overtime loss that snapped an 8 game losing streak for San Francisco. The Cardinals turned the ball over 4 times against the Niners, and still should have won the game if not for a missed 32 yard Neil Rackers field goal in the extra period. Kurt Warner is just the type of guy who, along with an outstanding receiving tandem in Fitzgerald and Boldin, can take advantage of a Browns defense which ranks 30th against the pass and 32nd overall, and I bet Edge is chomping at the bit to take on a team giving up 4.6 yards a carry. Arizona has a chance to make a playoff run which seemed unlikely earlier in the year as they battled injuries to key players on offense, an injury bug that has now carried over to the defense. Arizona has lost three defensive starters, two from the secondary, in the last three weeks, but have continued to play good defense thanks to the inspired play of Karlos Dansby. The 12th ranked Cardinal defense will have its hands full with Derek Anderson and his two main targets, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, not to mention the revived Jamal Lewis. However, if you dig a little deeper, you will find what swayed me. Arizona is 3-2 at home this year, 0-2 against teams with losing records(-9 in turnover margin in those two games) and 3-0 against teams with winning records, like Cleveland(+1 in those 3 games). The key for Arizona will be not to turn the ball over giving Anderson a short field. Speaking of Derek Anderson, he is 7-3 as a starter this year, but has played much better at home. Anderson is 5-0 at home, compiling a 106 passer rating, and just 2-3 on the road with a passer rating of 78. Like I said, barring a turnover fest, Arizona gets the job done at home and stays in the NFC playoff picture, Arizona 34-Cleveland 30. Next pick: Kansas City +6 against San Diego. The Chiefs come in losers of four straight, but were tied or ahead at halftime in each game, and were unable to make plays down the stretch. San Diego is clinging to a one game lead in the most disappointing division in football. KC beat San Diego by 14 in San Diego, becoming only the sixth team since 1990 to come from behind by double digits on the road to win by double digits. Herm Edwards is 5-2 lifetime against the Chargers while Norv Turner is 0-6 against the Chiefs. Philip Rivers is 1-2 in 3 career starts against the Chiefs compiling a 58 passer rating while throwing 5 interceptions to just 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs will turn back to Damon Huard for the banged up Brodie Croyle as they try to kickstart the stagnant offense which may have gotten the boost it needed last week by the breakout performance by Kolby Smith. San Diego is 21st on offense and defense and last week was the first time this year that they won a game in which they threw more than they ran. The Chargers are still yet to win a game in which they do not win the turnover battle, which will make ball security paramount for the Chiefs if they wish to remain competitive; despite being just 4-7 KC would be only a game out of first with a win over San Diego this week. The Chiefs defense must fluster Rivers again and force him into bad decisions, and the best way to do this is putting him in obvious passing downs by slowing down LT. The Chiefs do not need to stop LT altogether though, here is an interesting statistic: for his career LT has averaged 5-100 yard games every 13.25 games, against KC he has 5-100 yard games in 13 games. Against every team but the Chiefs, San Diego is 30-5 when LT goes for 100, but against Kansas City they are just 1-4 when he does it. Kansas City may not actually win this game, but they will keep it close so I feel very safe in telling you to take them with the points; Kansas City 21-San Diego 17 in an upset(but like I said, take the points to be safe). Final pick: Tennessee -3.5 over Houston. Tennessee is 7-2 lifetime against Houston(2-0 for Vince Young) and have swept them every year but 2004, when they were swept. The key to this game quite simply is Albert Haynesworth. I am making this pick based on his availability(the guarantee is still good whether he plays or not). Haynesworth is the Bob Sanders of the Titan defense; when he's not in the lineup they are just not the same. Tennessee has fallen from 1st against the run, giving up under 70 yards a game on the ground before his injury, to 6th due to allowing 160 per game in his absence. The offense has also struggled with him gone, always playing catch up, which has lead to a 3 game total of -5 in turnover margin and has forced them to abandon their 4th ranked rushing attack. Haynesworth's ability to take on two blockers has helped not only stopping the run, but allowing his teammates to put on a solid pass rush(22 sacks in 9 games with him vs. 3 sacks in 3 games without), which will be needed against the Texans' 6th ranked pass offense. Houston has won 2 of 3, partially due to the improved running game, with Ron Dayne averaging 96 yards a game in that stretch; just one more reason that Tennessee needs Haynesworth back. Vince Young will again look to show Houston what they missed out on in last year's draft, but he will need to do better than 2 TD's 5 picks if he wants to reassert himself as the leader of this team that, before the 3 game slide, appeared playoff bound. VY and the Titans need this game to get back in the playoff discussion, and they will get it; Tennessee 24-Houston 17. To recap, here are the five picks for Sunday: (1) Washington -6, (2) Indianapolis -6.5, (3) Arizona -1, (4) Kansas City +6, (5) Tennessee -3.5. This is your money man, Gabriel Gold, and you can take these picks to the bank, baby.
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christner
said:
| thanks for the post. definitely the wild card is the oaktown run game. they could dictate this game with the run as they typically do, however i think were seeing a new DEN team. i was surprised to see KC and ARZ on ur picks list. i seriously think SD will control that ball game. maybe even -14 pts. just my say tho. Also, tough to bet against CLE right now, they dominate games with Anderson and their offense, i see Edwards topping 100 yards easy. appreciate your views. cheers comrade. |

