OK loyal and kind followers, let me start off by saying thank you and I'm sorry. I would like say thanks for the kind words of those who commented on my Monday night matchup post and also say sorry. As I stated my wife was about to be admitted into the hospital and to explain, we are expecting our first child in about a month. My wife, God bless her soul, has been having some high blood pressure issues and they wanted to watch her overnight which had me a little frazzled. When I first started my research for the Titan-Bronco game I was leaning toward Tennesse, butas I got further into it I found myself being swayed the other way when my wife called. Since I did not finish my research I went with my first instinct, which obviously turned out to be wrong, but I will make a promise. I will never again post a pick that I have not finished exhaustive research on, and have 100% confidence in. With that being said, my pick 5 this week will be done in two parts, as 2 of the games that I think have vulnerable lines happen to be on Thanksgiving, and I will wait until Sunday is closer so that I have time to finish my research to post the other three. I also did not have time to recap the weekend where we went 4-1 on Sunday including the upset special which paid 8-5. I would also like to take this time to explain the betting strategy. Since the Challenge runs it weeks from Monday to Sunday, we always start with the Monday night selection, which I always put 1100 on to win 1000. Then I put my money equally on the Sunday pick 5 games, with the excpetion of puttin a little less on the upset special as it pays out higher than the other games. Last week I nailed the Monday night pick of Seattle over San Francisco, then went 4-1 on Sunday and made over 4900 units. This week I have already missed the Monday night game, which means I have only 3900 units to use on five games, one of which will be an upset special. I will put 825 to win 750 on the four spread games and 600 on the moneyline upset special game. Of course with two of these games on Thursday, that will alter my Sunday strategy as I should have over 5000 units for the three games after I nail my first two picks. (1) Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit. I have heard analysts say this week that Detroit traditionally plays well on these Thanksgiving games. I know they make more money than I do, but, well, they're wrong. Detroit has lost 6 of its last 7 on Turkey Day(although the only win in there was against Favre and the Packers in 2003). Green Bay has won 11 of its last 13 against the Lions and come into this contest having won 5 straight. Detroit is reeling a little bit, losing two in a row, rushing for a total of 7 yards in those games. With a win Green Bay would, for all intensive purposes, sew up the NFC North and then be able to turn its attention to next week's showdown with Dallas. I have also heard some experts say that this is a trap game for the Packers as they may already be thinking about the Cowboys. Again, these experts are paid handsomely for their opinions and I am not, yet, but I again disagree. We all know that the best player on the field will be Brett Favre and, as his team's leader, it is up to him to keep his team focused on the task at hand. If you have been paying attention lately then you may remember hearing Favre talk about the confidence his team is gaining and how it scares him, because he knows they still have a lot of improving that they need to do; now does that sound like a guy who may lose focus to you, I didn't think so. I have also been reminded this week of how poorly Favre plays in domes, so I checked into it and here's what I found. In his last 12 dome games Favre has thrown for an average of 304.5 yards per game with 25 touchdown and only 10 interceptions going 8-4. Favre is playing possibly the best he has ever played this year and he is taking his #2 passing offense up against Detroit's #30 pass defense. Kitna has thrown 5 interceptions the last two weeks due in part to their 32nd ranked rushing attack. Green Bay's rush defense is 9th, so look for another long day for Kitna whose 10 win season prediction is starting to look like his memory might after today's game, a little shaky. The Packers average nearly 3 sacks a game while Detroit gives up over 4 a game. I think that Green Bay will also continue to work on its running game with the emerging Ryan Grant, but if they can't get it going then Favre will throw it all over the yard. Green Bay by at least a touchdown, probably double digits, take the Pack. (2) Indianapolis -11.5 at Atlanta. Indianapolis will benefit from the return of Anthony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh this week, although will still be without Harrison, Freeney, and now also Ryan Diem and Aaron Moorehead. Peyton Manning has actually looked like a less than average quarterback(i.e. Joey Harrington) the last 3 weeks throwing 8 interceptions, which is one more than the entire Falcons team for the whole year. Joseph Addai has also struggled in the absence of a passing game averaging less than 3 yards a carry the last two weeks. A lot of analysts are beginning to question if Indianapolis still has it, but I would like to point out that if not for 8 minutes of poor football against the Patriots and a missed 29 yard field goal against the Chargers, they would be 10-0 and sometimes when a team as good as Indianapolis struggles the way they have, all they need is a breakout game to get back on track; Atlanta may be just what the doctor ordered. I do not believe that Manning's confidence has suffered one bit, but I do believe that Tony Dungy will want to get him back on track as they begin their playoff push. Reggie Wayne will draw one of the league's best cover corners in DeAngelo Hall, but he will still have a big game, as will Dallas Clark. Once the aerial attack gets going, look for Joseph Addai to take advantage of the 25th ranked Falcon rush defense, who lost both starting defensive tackles this week. The Colts also have an enormous advantage in the coaching department. I know that Bobby Petrino has gotten somewhat of a raw deal this year, but I thought he was suppose to be an offensive genius. Atlanta averages only 14.2 points a game(31st) and, in some of the worst decision making I have ever seen, Petrino seemingly refuses to stick with his best quarterback option, Joey Harrington. Harrington struggled to start the year, but then got it going before running into a couple poor performances prompting Petrino to go with Leftwich. Leftwich has started two games, finishing neither, sandwiched around Harrington winning two straight. Ironically, Harrington playes last Thanksgiving, against the Lions, and threw 3 touchdowns with 1 interceptions leading Miami to victory. I see the game this way: DeAngelo Hall could slow down Reggie Wayne a little bit, but the Colts still have Gonzalez and Dallas Clark who will both have big games if Wayne gets shut down, which has Manning throwing for close to 300 yards if not over, with at least two touchdowns. Addai will go for over 100 yards on the ground and at least one score, and Vinatieri will not miss any field goals inside of 50 yards. Harrington will be sacked at least twice and will fail to throw for 250 yards, with one touchdown and one pick. The combination of Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood will rush for less than 90 yards and no scores, totaling the Falcons points out at no more than 13. The Colts will shut up their critics this week, and continue to hold off the hard-charging Jaguars at least for another week, winning this game easily to move to 4-0 against the NFC South(their 3 wins to this point are by a total of 74 points). To recap, on Thanksgiving in the first two of my pick five for week 12, take Green Bay at -3.5 and Indianapolis at -11.5 as we rebound from taking one on the chin Monday night. I forgot to mention that my wife is home from the hospital and doing well, and thanks again for your kind words the other day. I would say good luck on your picks tomorrow, but I'm Gabriel Gold and I don't need luck cuz these picks are money. I will post the rest of the pick 5 Friday night or Saturday, so in the mean time, gobble till ya wobble.